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The eye is actually open to the south I believe. But yeah, Cozumel is going to go through for over a day.
I thought it was well formed before, just really small....
Good luck to everyone in Cozumel, that place is gonna get rocked :/
The eye is actually open to the south I believe. But yeah, Cozumel is going to go through for over a day.
I'm glad I had a chance to go to Cancun ...
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 23
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 20, 2005
reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft before 00z indicated
that the central pressure of Wilma had risen to 923 mb...and the
maximum 700 mb flight-level winds had decreased to 130-140 kt.
Since then...satellite imagery shows an improved eye presentation
and cooling cloud tops around the center..although not enough to
justify an increase in intensity. Based on this...the initial
intensity remains 130 kt. The next aircraft will investigate Wilma
around 05z.
Wilma has turned more to the right during the past few hr...with the
initial motion now 325/5. The hurricane is moving into a col area
between mid-level ridges to the east and west...while the stronger
westerlies remain north of 26n according to data from the NOAA g4
jet. This is a good formula for slow motion...and all models agree
on this for the next 24-48 hr. However...the dynamical models
steer Wilma northwestward into the Yucatan Peninsula during the
next 12-24 hr...a motion that is not supported by the current right
turn or the jet data. Therefore...the forecast track will be well
to the right of the model guidance...with the center forecast to
pass over the extreme northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.
This track also requires an earlier recurvature into the westerlies
than any of the guidance and a faster progress toward the northeast
and the Florida Peninsula. The new forecast track is similar to
the previous forecast...except somewhat slower through 96 hr.
Given the radical departure from the model guidance...this is a low
confidence forecast.
The intensity forecast is very problematic. First...the intensity
forecast calls for weakening due to passage over the Yucatan
Peninsula. If Wilma moves as far inland as the models forecast...
it will weaken considerably and likely be much weaker than forecast
along the rest of the track. On the other hand...if the eye moves
east of the track the hurricane will likely stay stronger than
forecast...at least for the first 36-48 hr. Second...all available
data shows that the outflow has decreased to the west as weak
westerly flow impinges on Wilma. This will likely not prevent the
intensification forecast during the next 24 hr...although it may be
a precursor to the shear forecast to affect the hurricane over the
Gulf of Mexico. This shear should cause Wilma to weaken regardless
of how strong it is after passing Yucatan. Third...water vapor
imagery continues to show very dry mid/upper-level air covering the
Gulf of Mexico. As Wilma interacts with the westerlies...this air
should begin to entrain into the hurricane...and indeed there has
been some erosion of the western side of the cloud pattern during
the past 6 hr. Finally...Wilma should pass over the warm loop
current followed by cooler waters near the Florida Peninsula. The
latter should aid the shear-induced weakening. Given the
uncertainties...the intensity forecast will change little from the
previous advisory. It should be noted that if Wilma misses Yucatan
there is a chance that in spite of all the negative factors it
could be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida.
NOAA buoy 42003 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico reports that large
swells generated by Wilma are propagating toward portions of the
northern Gulf Coast...and could reach the coast on Friday.
Forecaster Beven
It definitely looks like it is strengthening.
I hope my friend Nacho, one of the local Cozumel divemasters, got off the island.
Manny, I'm too lazy to do any homework on this - why are they expecting the extreme right hook instead of a track to Texas?
Manu20 just posted why above. The low pressure system that is moving across the US is going to change the airflow and steer the storm in that direction. The airflow around the area of low pressuer serves to pull the storm up to the north. It will move much faster as this happens and its going to tranistion into an extra tropical storm. It happens quite often in the North Atlantic - think "The Perfect Storm". It is the same type of situation. They are actually worried about the effect it could have on New England as well.
Also, I saw this on a blog and had to post it:
Hilarity in a ty situation. I hope everyone in Mexico is safe. They've been hit way too much this year.
Cozumel is almost entirely in the eye right now! It's pretty amazing.
Updates anyone?
Yea the island is about 30 miles thick and 50 miles long. From San Miguel you can drive along road to the east side. There is a couple of bars right at the east end. But the waves are really nasty and rocky so it's not used by people to swim or dive. They just sit around nekkid at the nude beach.
By WILL WEISSERT, Associated Press Writer
31 minutes ago
CANCUN, Mexico - Hurricane Wilma tore into Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera on Friday with torrential rains and shrieking winds, filling the streets with water as thousands of stranded tourists hunkered down in hotel ballrooms and emergency shelters.
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Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said Wilma officially made landfall about 4:30 p.m. EDT, with the center of the storm's eye hitting the cruise-ship magnet island of Cozumel.
The fearsome Category 4 storm, which killed 13 people in Haiti and Jamaica, was expected to pummel the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula for two days, sparking fears of catastrophic damage. It is forecast to sideswipe Cuba before bearing down on Florida.
"Tin roofing is flying through the air everywhere. Palm trees are falling down. Signs are in the air and cables are snapping," Julio Torres told The Associated Press by telephone from the Red Cross office in Cozumel.
"Not even emergency vehicles have been able to go out on the streets, because the winds are too strong."
The wind bent palm trees and the surf washed away tiki huts on hotel beaches. Power was cut early Friday to most parts of Cancun — a standard safety precaution.
Shop windows were shattered, cars were crushed under fallen trees and pay phones jutted from waist-deep floodwaters in the famed hotel zone.
At the same time, Wilma's outer bands pounded western Cuba, where the government evacuated nearly 370,000 people. Forecasters said Wilma could bring more than 3 feet of rain to parts of Cuba.
About 7,000 residents were evacuated from the coastal fishing village of La Coloma in Cuba's southern Pinar del Rio province.
"We thought we'd be spending a lot less time here," Maria Elena Torre said at a shelter set up inside a boarding school. "Now we have no idea how long we'll be here."
Civil defense official Adolfo Nilo Moreno said the 725 evacuees at the school were likely to remain in place until Tuesday or Wednesday.
"Luckily, we have enough food for four months," primarily rice, chicken, bread and milk, he said.
In Florida, emergency officials on Friday issued evacuation orders for the west coast town of Naples and a nearby island, which the storm was expected to reach Monday. Florida Keys residents also were asked to leave.
At 5 p.m. EDT, Wilma's winds were at 140 mph — down slightly from 145 mph a few hours earlier — as the storm made landfall on Cozumel, the hurricane center said. The hurricane was about 430 miles southwest of Key West, Fla., and was moving northwest at about 5 mph.
Forecasters said it likely would weaken over land.
"It's going to be a long couple of days here for the Yucatan Peninsula," hurricane center director Max Mayfield said.
No injuries were reported as the hurricane moved in. Cancun Red Cross director Ricardo Portugal said the biggest problem so far had been "nervous crises," and 11 pregnant women were ferried to hospitals because of worries the storm had induced labor.
Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun, and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels there were evacuated.
Hotels being used as shelters pushed furniture up against windows that were not boarded up, and some people slept under plastic sheeting to protect them from dripping roofs.
Juan Luis Flores, an emergency services official in Quintana Roo state, said about 65,000 people were evacuated. Mexico's civil defense chief, Carmen Segura, assured people "their families are protected as they should be."
But instead of luxury hotel suites over a turquoise sea, many tourists found themselves sleeping on the floors of hotel ballrooms, schools and gymnasiums reeking of sweat because there was no power or air conditioning.
Scott and Jamie Stout of Willisville, Ill., were spending their honeymoon on a Cancun basketball court with a leaky roof.
"After one more day of this, I believe people will start getting cranky," said Scott Stout, 26. "Things could get messy."
The Stouts, at least, had food and coffee. Devon Anderson, 21, of Sacramento, Calif., was sharing 10 rooms at a rundown Cozumel school with 200 other Americans.
"We are all sleeping on the floor," Anderson said. "There's no food, no water."
At the Xbalamque Hotel, a downtown Cancun shelter for evacuees from beachfront resorts, American tourist Becky Hora, 37, watched floodwaters rise up the steps toward the lobby as winds howled and trees thudded to the ground.
"It's awful," she said. "I thought that last night we had made it through the worst of it. And now it turns out this is only the beginning. It's hard to stay calm."
Ronnie Croley, 46, said he lost power at his Madison, Miss., home for four days after Hurricane Katrina struck, then he helped his company clean up a factory damaged by Hurricane Rita.
"This was supposed to be a little break for us, but now here we are again," he said.
Wilma briefly strengthened to Category 5 and became the most intense hurricane recorded in the Atlantic Ocean with 882 millibars of pressure, breaking the record low of 888 set by Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Lower pressure brings faster winds.
___
Associated Press reporter Vanessa Arrington in Pinar del Rio, Cuba, and David Royse in Key West, Fla., contributed to this report.
smart ass
Of course being the neocon bureaucrat I do ent everything... in case you know people are like "no way dude"..smart ass
Looking at the latest sat. loops it looks as though Wilma is just ploppin' her ass on Cancun and not moving!
Cozumel update. Some phones working. Not a single camera crew or big media on the island. Residents report 2+ feet of water flooding in San Miguel. Several buildings collapsed but no reports of casualties. 100 tourists in lobby of Hotel Cozumel (this hotel changes names like every year). People calling from Cozumel want to know when it's going to be over. Resident comment about it being worse than 88 gilbert.
A little off topic but Tropical Storm Alpha has been born!
Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion Number 2
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 22, 2005
A 1500z trmm composite pass indicated a well-defined circulation
center near 16.3n 67.9w with a tightly clustered banding feature.
The cyclone has become better organized throughout the day as
evident on satellite imagery. 18z Dvorak classification from all
three agencies were 2.0/2.0...and moreover the cloud pattern has
continued to improved since that time. At 18z...a ship report from
c6fn4 had a 22 knot southwest wind about 30 nm southeast of the
center with a 1007 mb pressure. Based upon the above information
the cyclone has been upgraded to tropical storm Alpha. Alpha is the
twenty-second named storm this season and overall makes the 2005
hurricane season the most active on record.
Initial motion is estimated at 305/13. Water vapor imagery indicates
the storm is just to the south of the western periphery of a low-
to mid-layer ridge. Alpha is forecast to move northwestward for the
next 12-24 hours around the anticyclone to the northeast...then
recurve to the northe and eventually northeast ahead of Wilma and
the large deep-layer baroclinic trough forming over the eastern
United States. The official track forecast has Alpha being
absorbed by the trough in 96 hours if not sooner.
Alpha is forecast to slowly intensify in the next 12 hours prior to
making landfall along the South Coast of Hispaniola. After
weakening over the mountains some brief re-intensification is
possible prior to the cyclone being absorbed into the larger system
to the northwest.
The most significant impact of this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall and potential flooding over Hispaniola.
Forecaster Mainelli/Knabb
Xena...
Why don't they use XYZ?
Well they actually do not use Q, U, X, Y, and Z because there is not a lot of names beginning with those letters. If they run out of names like this season they use the Greek alphapet: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta,. etc.
so how is Alpha doing?
I still don't buy that NWS excuse.. they can make names out of those letters.
let make our own names out of those letters.
George Bush Don't Like Mexican People
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