Random Thoughts: Spurs vs. Rockets - Nov. 30, 2018

[timvp]

They weren't contenders. You'd think a Spurs fan would be able to differentiate the real from the fake.

You'd think a Spurs fan would remember those Jazz made the Western Conference Finals. They were a Duncan injury away from having a pretty good chance at a ring. If that doesn't fit your definition of a contender, I guess we'll have to disagree

I like how, in the midst of your lavishing praise on Buford for his recent drafting, you conveniently forgot to mention . . .

1) Jean-Charles, one of the worst draft picks in recent NBA history

Hyperbole. A majority of late first round draft picks never amount to anything. In fact, that stat holds true for draft picks 18th and lower the last I checked. Spurs fans are spoiled in that they expect late first rounders to be good ... but that's the exception and far from the rule.

LJC was a 100% athlete who tore his ACL a couple months after the draft. Even if you want to chalk that up as a bad draft pick, one bad first round pick in the 20-plus years of Buford drafting is pretty damn impressive. James Anderson didn't pan out but he too suffered a career-altering injury early ... and he still had multiple stints with other teams, which is better than most mid to late first round draft picks can claim.

2) Milutinov, an archaic archetype, who if he ever comes over is probably a deep bench caliber player

He's 23 years old and playing well in Europe. Early to call him a bust, even for a pessimist, tbh.

]3) Murray and to a lesser extent Walker were ranked considerably higher and fell.

Cool stories. Still good picks

[TD 21]

You'd think a Spurs fan would remember those Jazz made the Western Conference Finals. They were a Duncan injury away from having a pretty good chance at a ring. If that doesn't fit your definition of a contender, I guess we'll have to disagree

Hyperbole. A majority of late first round draft picks never amount to anything. In fact, that stat holds true for draft picks 18th and lower the last I checked. Spurs fans are spoiled in that they expect late first rounders to be good ... but that's the exception and far from the rule.

LJC was a 100% athlete who tore his ACL a couple months after the draft. Even if you want to chalk that up as a bad draft pick, one bad first round pick in the 20-plus years of Buford drafting is pretty damn impressive. James Anderson didn't pan out but he too suffered a career-altering injury early ... and he still had multiple stints with other teams, which is better than most mid to late first round draft picks can claim.

He's 23 years old and playing well in Europe. Early to call him a bust, even for a pessimist, tbh.

Cool stories. Still good picks

I did, but thinking making the WCF automatically qualifies one as being a contender, is insane. They got lucky that the Warriors upset the Mavericks and that the Spurs took care of the Suns. '07 contenders were: Spurs, Mavericks, Suns, Pistons.

Right, but the majority of late 1sts at least play in the league, if sporadically, for at least 1-2 years. Off the top, I can't think of another example of one being cut out of camp, 3 years after being drafted.

Torn ACL's don't end or even alter careers enough (at least in young players) to blame that as the reason for his not being good enough to play in the league. He hasn't even been on the radar since.

Didn't call him a bust and as ever, you're mistaking pessimist with realist.

Good picks, but no brainer picks. Not the type that credit should be doled out for.

[timvp]

I did, but thinking making the WCF automatically qualifies one as being a contender, is insane. They got lucky that the Warriors upset the Mavericks and that the Spurs took care of the Suns. '07 contenders were: Spurs, Mavericks, Suns, Pistons.

Making a conference finals and being an injury away from a championship makes a team a contender in my book. It doesn't in your book. Apparently, making the finals doesn't make a team a contender in your book, either. We shall disagree on that topic

Right, but the majority of late 1sts at least play in the league, if sporadically, for at least 1-2 years.

Obviously. That's because teams automatically sign their first round draft picks. LJC was a draft-and-stash so the Spurs didn't need those 1-2 years to realize he was not an NBA player.

Torn ACL's don't end or even alter careers enough (at least in young players) to blame that as the reason for his not being good enough to play in the league.

That's getting more true as the years pass and medicine advances. Five years ago when LJC tore his ACL, players were still having microfracture surgery. Nowadays, microfracture surgery is practically as archaic as bloodletting.

Good picks, but no brainer picks. Not the type that credit should be doled out for.

I give credit for good picks. If you don't, then that's another area we'll have to disagree on

[TD 21]

Making a conference finals and being an injury away from a championship makes a team a contender in my book. It doesn't in your book. Apparently, making the finals doesn't make a team a contender in your book, either. We shall disagree on that topic

Obviously. That's because teams automatically sign their first round draft picks. LJC was a draft-and-stash so the Spurs didn't need those 1-2 years to realize he was not an NBA player.

That's getting more true as the years pass and medicine advances. Five years ago when LJC tore his ACL, players were still having microfracture surgery. Nowadays, microfracture surgery is practically as archaic as bloodletting.

I give credit for good picks. If you don't, then that's another area we'll have to disagree on

My definition would be: capable of winning it without caveat or qualification.

Fair enough, but my point was, they didn't even bother attempting to save face (which is actually partially commendable).

I'm just saying, context is important. So much of success and failure in professional sports is based on luck and when you receive a good amount, people are quick to lavish praise. When you don't, vice versa.

[gambit1990]

I did, but thinking making the WCF automatically qualifies one as being a contender, is insane. They got lucky that the Warriors upset the Mavericks and that the Spurs took care of the Suns. '07 contenders were: Spurs, Mavericks, Suns, Pistons.

[pad300]

Hit and miss. More bad than good in the last few years, unfortunately.

The Gasol extension was WTF at the time and I've never been able to make sense of it. Truly an F- move. Pop really, really didn't want to lose Mills to the Nets but it was a bad re-signing at the time and has gotten worse and worse as free agency money for comparable players disappeared.

Most damning, the Spurs didn't maximize Nephew's value when trading him. A lot of that was out of their hands but, personally, I would have held onto him and forced him to play out his contract. Best case, he plays and you reconcile. Second best case, he plays and increases his trade value and you get something north of 80 cents on the dollar. There were reasons the Spurs didn't go that route but none of those reasons were good enough in my eyes to accept the deal they accepted.

Some smaller scale hits (Dedmon, Gay) and misses (King Joff, looks like Belinelli) lately but safe to say the Nephew trade plus the Gasol and Mills deal overshadow everything else in free agency and trades in recent years.

The good news is Buford still appears to be great at drafting. Murray, White and Walker all look like great picks. Metu looks like a good pick. Going back to KA is another good/great pick.

Probably the most exciting thing about the coming years is to see what Buford and co. can do with the forthcoming draft picks. If he's done great with late first rounders, what could he do with lottery picks? Exciting, tbh.


Edit to add:

I also give credit to Buford for identifying two NBA level undrafted players in the 2016 draft: Forbes and Arcidiacono. The man is truly a legend when it comes to the draft, tbh.

You think the Gasol extension was WTF? He conveniently opted out, at which point the Spurs had the potential cap flexibility to make a run at CP3 ( I doubt they knew the fix was in with Houston...but perhaps they were looking at some other max worthy free-agent). What could they believably have promised him to make him forgo the last year of his contract, worth $15.4M (IIRC), when he wouldn't get close to that on the open market? A full MLE contract worth ~ $38 M? Hey the new contract he got was for ~$48M, with $10M no guaranteed = $38M. What a coincidence! The PATFO would never tell porkers about no intention of making a run at CP3. They would never make promises to get a player to opt out of a contract (Hi Jefferson, what are you doing here?) for financial reasons... I don't blame them for trying, nor for keeping their promises afterwards. The only think I might have done differently would be offering Pau a "bigger" contract. He was on 15.5 and was resigned with non-bird rights; he could get a 20% raise = $18.6m starting. Add a 5% raise, and you could get the third year fully unguaranteed, while getting Pau his money...

Mills, I agree with you was a -up. He is not good enough as an actual PG, or as an undersized SG, to be considered a starter level guy. You don't pay a guy like that more than the MLE, even if you love his "character and intangibles".

They were always going to get reamed on the quitter trade, even if he started playing (well) for us again. Still, they should either have been patient, like you said, or said the salary ballast is Mills in place of Green unless OG Anunoby comes to SA.

Those were the major flaws - that and being under-aggressive in FA the last 2 years. This has been a golden opportunity wasted (and it is gone). Due to the dearth in cap-space after the splurge in 2016 (following the new CBA), players have been underpaid. We should have been locking down talent on longer term full MLE commitments. Would Rudy have turned down an extra guaranteed year (or 2). We could have gone after Tyreke Evans and offered him the 4 year MLE this summer as well! Kyle Anderson should have been paid, because in a normal off-season, he would likely have gotten something starting at $10M, so locking him in at the MLE for 4 years is a good deal... Buy Low, Sell High is a pretty simple principle...

[Daddy Long Dik]

ayyy we gotchall good