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I wouldn't say they got murdered - especially if they are able to keep Radman, who can't get more than the midlevel from them. It'll be interesting to see Wilcox's price tag this summer.
Spurs will probably end up playing Denver or Phoenix and then the Pistons.Denver and Seattle???
I wouldn't say they got murdered - especially if they are able to keep Radman, who can't get more than the midlevel from them. It'll be interesting to see Wilcox's price tag this summer.
1/2 does not = many
Nazr reminds me of that pretty ring that you buy that the salesperson swears is real. It's shiny and pretty and you wear it and love it. Then you go home, take it off and realize your finger turned green. All that glitters is not gold, Spurs fans. Sometimes it's gold electroplate. Nazr Mohammed= Gold electroplate.
Probably due to a lack of physicality.
Actually, more like a pretty ring that you traded for an old family heirloom that half your family said was ugly but dammit maybe it was small but it was real and had a lot of good memories attached.
I'd take Duncan and that heirloom as a front court right now. . .
Leave it to Shoogar...
This is a very good observation, and I sadly agree with it.
The data from 82games.com give us some interesting information for discussion. The following is the complete set of points per 100 possesions in offense, defense and the net differential when the players are ON the floor, sorted by net differential between offense and deffense
Please note that the more minutes a player is on the floor, the more precise are the conclusions we could draw. This basically means deductions based on these data are more precise for TP, TD, Bowen, Manu and Finley, and less for the rest.Code:Player Offense Defense Net-Diff Manu Ginobili 113.1 100.6 12.6 Brent Barry 108.7 97.4 11.3 Tony Parker 110.4 99.5 10.8 Robert Horry 109.2 99.1 10.1 Tim Duncan 109.2 99.6 9.7 Rasho Nestvic. 105.7 96.2 9.5 Bruce Bowen 110.1 101.1 9.0 Nazr Mohammed 109.5 102.9 6.6 Michael Finley 105.1 100.1 5.0 Beno Udrih 108.7 104.7 4.1 Fabr. Oberto 102.5 102.4 0.1 Nick Van Exel 100.8 102.6 -1.8 Sean Marks 100.8 108.9 -9.6
There are a couple of observations that I would like to make, which may be surprising to some in here:
1. Brent Barry has actually the second best differential of the team, and the second best defense per 100 possesions. Pop should try to slowly increase Brent's minutes at the expense of Finley's to see if he can keep this up with increased minutes.
2. Rasho provides the best defense on the team, and subpar offense. Conversely, Nazr provides good offense and subpar defense (most people in here are in complete agreement with this statement). It is clear to all Spurs fans at this point that the ideal situation would be to have a Mohamesterovic as a player if we could combine them. Since we cannot, Pop has chosen to go with a guy with several deficiences (and in fact worst in the net-differential between offense/defense), but with enough athletic ability to dunk and fight for rebounds. Time will tell if this is the right move, but you can hardly go against what have worked in the past, i.e. last year's playoffs.
3. Bruce Bowen offense has dramatically improve this year at the expense of a decline in his defensive ability. I think I am not the only one that have noticed that Bruce is a tad slower this year. Nothing dramatically, but the beginning of the decline. The data backs this up quite nicely.
4. Tim defensive ability has also declined this year. The decline is not that notorious since he went from freaking increadible to pretty good. With the PF and all the injuries, I do not expect him to be better than pretty good this year. This is one of the most critical issues, since Tim is the anchor of the Spurs deffense (and completely irreplaceable in this regard) and he will not be able to compensate for the blunders of Nazr in defense, and the lack of Rasho rebounding. Our frontcourt may be weaker this year I think.
5. This is where I disagree with timvp. I will say this very clearly... Nick Van Exel is detrimental to this team if he plays for extended periods of time. If the Spurs use him for the occasional run, in a Steve Kerr type of veteran role, I am all for it. I think it is a luxury to have him on the bench for that type of role, bringing a player with balls big enough to take over a game when things are going south. However, if the Spurs play him extensively, he is capable of sinking the offense really bad, with poor ball distribution and horrid shot selection.
6. Beno Udrih is not as bad as some people think he is. While his defense is still subpar, his offense and ball distribution compensates for those shortcomings. Right now, I would give him the nod to be the primary back up at PG. As for his last playoffs' failures to bring up the ball when pressured and trapped by the opposing team, I think he has learned a lesson and this year the "Hunters" of the league would have a more difficult job catching him. I will not address the claims that Beno is better than TP in any aspect other than maybe ball distribution, since this is ludicrous.
7. In the playoffs, depending on the matchups, there is still a place for both Rasho and Nazr. In the case of Rasho, it is critical to match him up on the floor with Manu, since he is the most productive offensive player in the team, and he can compensate for Rasho's shortcomings (either by creating easy shots for him, or rather avoid giving him the ball much in offense).
Rasho is shooting 52% FG. So while you can get away with saying he is soft offensively because he doesn't go hard at the basket, his FG% and Nazr's are almost identical. Rasho has MANY skills on offense that Nazr does not possess. Nazr is a better offensive rebounder and gets to the line more. As for pairing Rasho with Manu, I totally agree, but it is Manu who benefits from the screens Rasho sets. Rasho is STILL far and away the best big on this team at sealing defenders off. Most importantly, the Spurs as a TEAM shoot a higher FG% with Rasho than Nazr in the game. What about that stat?
But I have a question-- people always throw out the Rasho is soft label, but what about Nazr-- I think he is soft DEFENSIVELY. When have you seen Nazr foul a guy to stop an easy basket and make the guy earn it at the line? His fouls are usually weak reach-in fouls.
Heirloom would never let the Spurs get this lethargic, disinterested and lackadaisical on the court, he would bring some emotion and get them into it.
RVB:
Interesting stats, as always, and we can discuss for a long time what they might mean, but the one thing I disagree with you on is that they "prove" anything.
Basketball is a five-on-five game and unless you can statistically correct for differences in combinations on the floor, there is no way you can make an absolute comparison of one player to another on the basis of these numbers. For instance, suppose for example Barry only played when there were four other starters on the floor (I know this isn't the actual case) and Finley only played with other bench players, then Barry's numbers would be skewed because theoretically he only played with better players. Similarly, to do this in a complete fashion you would also have to adjust for the five players on the court for the other team.
Hainvg said that, the numbers are probably a reasonable starting point, more so for the +/- value. But I view any statistic that says that Brent Barry is the second most effective defensive player for the Spurs with a huge deal of skepticism.
But you can, and there are several methods used by NBA teams to do exactly what you suggest. They are called adjusted +/-, Winval, and many more. They all take into consideration the 4 players playing with subject being tested and the five opposing players. Several of the creators of those methods are now working for different NBA franchises.
That data however is not readly available to the public, so it is a little more difficult to get (I've got some data for the 02/03 and 04/05 seasons).
Regarding what it is usually referred in the statistical community as the laughing test, I agree with you. I did say in my disclaimer that conclusions for players that do not play significant minutes are less robust. In the case of Barry, he only plays 29% of the total possible minutes. In those bursts however, he did perform better than the casual fan percieves.
well they got something for him, better than nothing letting him walk this summer.
"Many"? He has more range. That's it.
Probably because he's out of position. If Nazr was in positiion, I'm sure he's just as capable of making those fouls as Rasho.When have you seen Nazr foul a guy to stop an easy basket and make the guy earn it at the line? His fouls are usually weak reach-in fouls.
VERY encouraging stats as the Spurs prepare to enter the playoffs considering Manu, Tony, Tim & Horry's minutes will all GO UP once Pop doesn't have to "save them for the playoffs" anymore.
The Spurs, more than any other team, put a "different" team on the court in the playoffs.
Last night, a different Spurs team showed up. They must have been reading this thread. Anyway, it was good to see the defense surface again.
Rasho sets better screens, seals defenders off better, has better hands, is a better passer, reads defenses better, knows the plays better...
as for shorter: he is 211 cm (6.11), Nazr is 6.10
Javtokas is definatly more athletic than Nazr and probably better shot blocker.
He's offense is mostly putbacks and dunks, almost no range (which is kind of wierd for Lithuanian)
I don't know why "those Spurs" didn't show up vs Nuggs and Sonics, but better late than never. And no turning back. Spurs have serious payback to render Thu night.
I'm happy that Pop isn't happy with where the Spurs are at this point.
Then why is the Spurs offense so much worse with him in there?
is it worse? i know the rebounding is but i don't think the point totals vary all that much...
Actually I'm not sure that the Spurs offense is worse with him on the floor. His offense is not that good, but I think that a nice percentage of the points in the paints were facilitated by him. If he would hussle more and get more offensive boards, then his offensive performance (points scored) would not even be a factor.
I will agree that what he does on the O is not enough (or that he could do more), but not that the Spurs O suffers because of him.
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