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New Jersey Nets
Flip hasn't got a chance.
The only point of yours I disagree on. Slight edge to the Spurs.
Just like you said before that the Spurs can't stop the Pistons offense if they are on....the same can be said in reverse. When the Spurs are on, their ball movement is second to none. And it's predicated on Tim dishing out to open shooters and not necessarily his one-on-one matchup with Sheed/Ben.
If anything, the Spurs are a better jumpshooting team with the new additions compared to last year.
New Jersey Nets
Flip hasn't got a chance.
Those are thrown off by our horrid garbage time play. For Example, Darko played about 139 minutes for the Pistons this year, and he was -94 during that strech. I know for a fact they have pissed away at least 5-6 15-16 point leads down to the 5-9 point range, and it also kills their point differential. -94 points over about 60 games (when Darko was here) takes almost 1.5 off your point differential. That doesn't even count guys like Acker, who had played a whopping 4 minutes (post-Darko) and is a laughable -19. Just a thought.
The thing about statistics as a barometer - is you simply take them at face value, and don't try to explain WHY they are what they are. The predicter exists that if you dominate in those three categories, regardless of WHY you tend to win the NBA championship.
As a Detroit fan, it would concern me that, yes, Detroit DID lead in the FG % for a great amount of the season (as well as "blow-out" wins, but by the end that is changing). I feel more comfortable as a Spurs fan with the reversed role (of course if Pop begins to let the team coast, Detroit could easily take the lead in each of those categories, making the statistical choice based on those barometers more of a toss-up, since Detroit simply isn't on the map of opponent fg% this season).
Pistons in 5. The Spurs will be in big trouble.
I don't believe Detroit ever led in the FG%, but I know they have led in point differential and were among the top in 10+ point wins. As you said, by the end of the season, who knows which team will end up being the leader in those categories. And, while they are good indicators, I hardly believe they are always guaranteed predictors. There were a few teams--I think Rockets may have been one--that had better Opp. FG% last year. And, I doubt the Pistons were among the top in point differential or 10+ pt wins in 2004 when they won it all.
My point in actually listing the numbers of the two teams with respect to those three categories you brought up was to show that Detroit was fairly close in all three categories. Opp. FG% is quite behind, but I think most would agree that Detroit is still one of the best defensive teams when they really play. I must admit especially earlier in the season, their defense was somewhat disappointing, but easy to swallow because of all of the wins.
And, it has already been brought up, but the Pistons had several (at least four games off the top of my head) in which they had more than a ten point lead in the closing minutes of a game where the end of the bench gave up a lot of points to make the wins less than 10 pt wins. I don't remember the opponent, but I do remember a game in which the "scrubs" let a 12 pt lead fall to a 3 pt win.
At any rate, those stat categories as barometers for championship hopes are all well and good. The Spurs are absolutely one of the favorites to win it all. I think the Pistons are as well.
Yeah, meant to type Point Differential, didn't come out that way....
The Spurs are absolutely one of the favorites to win it all. I think the Pistons are as well.
Spurs and Pistons are the only favorites, agreed - also NO team had ever won the 3-5 games on their home floor in the finals until Detroit shattered that particular hook the Lakers had hung their hats on.
Not being the hometeam winning 3-5. Detroit in 2004 were the first to win all middle three games as the hometeam. There have been teams that have won the middle three on the road ... I think the Lakers did in 2001 against the Sixers and I know the Pistons did it in 1990 against Portland. But, only the 2004 Pistons to be the hometeam in the middle three were able to do that.
Just my 2 cents here, but as even as they are on paper, the playoffs can be long and hard. IMO, whoever makes it to the playoffs with the healthiest team and the least games played to get there, has to have the edge.
I still thnk Spurs in 6 or 7 at this point.
It may change, but Detroit has gotten into a bad habit of playing lazy the first half, and depending on turning it up the second half to barely scrape out a win.
If that trend continues, look for the Nets to win the East.
Spurs in 7, they win in Detroit. These teams are both really solid, they played a great, close series last year and there is no doubt another series will be just as close.
Detroit is better than last year, Chauncey, Rip, Sheed, Ben and Tay are playing better, McDyess is peaking, adding Davis, Delk, Mo, and Carlos (who wasnt on the playoff roster last year) is a big improvment.
Pistons can score with anyone, and their defense can stop any team anytime they want.
However I still think the Spurs are a better team. I think Manu and Tony are too quick for Detroit, they will get into the paint pretty easily. Bowen is the perfect player to shut down their leading scorer, Rip, and in crunch time switch him on Chauncey like we did in game 7. Pistons are a premiter shooting team, they dont score in the paint, that is not a good formula for playoff basketball. The Spurs bench is just so much better than Detroits, and I give the coaching edge to Pop, comapre their playoff records to see why.
Dont let those regular season games fool you, the spurs, kinda like the Pistons, will be a different team come playoff time, heck they are a different team now. Duncan and Sheed will have a solid series, Rip and Bowen will be a great matchup to watch, its gonna be a great fun series and I cant wait until June.
Spurs in 6 or 7 on the winningest homecourt in the league? I'm not saying it couldn't happen. But, predicting that is rather bold. If you're going to pick the Spurs, pick them in 5 so they finish the Pistons off in San Antonio. The Spurs have never won a game 7 on the road. And, if it's a game 7 at the Palace, the odds are slim to none that they beat Detroit.
If Mourning (and obviously the rest of the Heat) are healthy, they WILL beat the Pistons. Book it!
What were the odds they would win game 5 last year?
What were the odds the Pistons would win game 6?
Game 5 is not game 7. And, actually, I think the Spurs had pretty good odds of winning game 5 last year, because beating the Spurs in three straight games is pretty tough.
As for the Pistons winning game 6, the core of the Pistons have had a lot of road success in the playoffs in crucial games: winning game 6 in Orlando in the first round of the 2003 playoffs down 3-2; winning game 6 on the road in New Jersey in the 2004 EC Semifinals down 3-2; winning game 7 in Miami in the 2005 EC Finals. I think the odds of the Pistons winning game 6 were pretty good with reference to how they have played in the playoffs on the road in crucial, even elimination, game situations.
THE FIRST POINT, people must think, should be if are the spurs going to be in the finals again and the same for pistons fans?
The point being, you made a statement that winning in 6 or 7 would mean the Spurs would have to win IN Detroit, like that is some unimaginable feat. No moreso than winning in SA or Detroit LAST year;
and, btw, the Spurs have had some reasonable success on the road in the playoffs, as well.
i dont think he doubts the spurs could win a game in detroit but if the spurs have to win games 6 AND 7 in detroit it might be too much to overcome considering detroit has only lost twice at home all year. detroit faced a similiar problem last as winning 2 straight on the road to close the series against a team like SA is a pretty tough task.
Well, ALL Pistons fans were bold enough last year to say that you guys would win against the winningeste homecourt in the league.
You're giving him too much credit. He was chastising ANY Spurs fan for picking Spurs in 6 or 7, saying essentially, that if it goes as far as 6, since it's on Detroit's floor, the Pistons would win. He didn't qualify it as you have.
Actually, what I said was:
"Spurs in 6 or 7 on the winningest homecourt in the league? I'm not saying it couldn't happen. But, predicting that is rather bold. If you're going to pick the Spurs, pick them in 5 so they finish the Pistons off in San Antonio. The Spurs have never won a game 7 on the road. And, if it's a game 7 at the Palace, the odds are slim to none that they beat Detroit."
In fact, the Spurs have never won an ELIMINATION game 6 on the road. They've won game 6's before on the road, but only when they were up in the series.
My point is that it would be extremely difficult for the Spurs to win in 6 or 7 games against the Pistons if Detroit has HCA. And, yes I did "qualify" what I said by stating that it was possible ("not saying it couldn't happen").
My earlier examples showed that the Detroit Pistons have had a history of being tough enough to get road wins when they faced elimination ... again 2003 against the Orlando Magic in game 6 at Orlando, after being down 3-1 in that series, game 6 IN New Jersey in the 2004 EC Semifinals being down 3-2, winning game 7 of the 2005 ECF AT Miami, even winning game 6 in San Antonio in the Finals last year when no other team in history had even won game 6 in the NBA finals on the road being down 3-2 in the 2-3-2 format.
That's why I think it is easier for a Pistons fan to be more confident that the Pistons could pull out a "must-win" game on the road than Spurs fans should be of the Spurs. When the Spurs get down in a playoff series, they lose on the road. Find me evidence to the contrary.
I never understood the argument "[insert team] has never won _______ [kind of game]". No baseball team had won a playoff series after being done 0-3, but then it happened (on the road too).
The Pistons never won a game 7 on the road until they beat the Heat last year. So what the Spurs have never won a game 7 on the road? They havent PLAYED a game 7 on the road with Duncan / Manu / Parker.
The better team will always win a best of 7 series. If game 7 is on the road, the better team, not neccessarily the home team, will take it, and I think San Antonio is the better team.
Plus I think it would be MORE bold to predict Spurs in 5 then Spurs in 7 - these teams are too good to let the series end in 5 games. It will go 7, and the Spurs will win in Detroit.
If it goes 7 and it's at the Palace, I don't see the Spurs winning it.
Game 5 last year was as close to "being down" as a team could be, considering how 3 & 4 went.
Also, Spurs have "been down", dropping game 1 of series many times, only to come storming back. Typically the Spurs play from in front; taking control of series, and finishing teams off. Notable exception is Detroit last year; and conventional wisdom, all national pundits, and certainly Detroit Fan thought for SURE that that tough Detroit 7th game experience would rule the day.
Fact is, Detroit tightened, the Spurs extended; would HCA have made a difference? I don't know, and neither do you. All I know is, Detroit has made a big deal about that HCA all year, and has played their asses off to get it. How will they respond if the Spurs come in and pop em in the mouth in game 1, and wrench that hard-fought, absolutely essential, HCA away in 48 minutes? I'm betting not well.
Spurs in 6 @ auburn hills.
yes. I'm a believer.
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