Sporting News' baseball experts break down the NLCS
October 9, 2006
SN baseball editors
The Mets meet the Cardinals for the right to represent the National League in the World Series. Here's how Sporting News staff members see the N.L. series shaking out.
STAN McNEAL, managing editor: Game 1 looms even larger than usual. If Jeff Weaver somehow pitches as well against the Mets as he did against the Padres, the Cardinals' confidence will continue to rise and this series will be very compe ive. Good news for Cardinals fans: Weaver's solid performance over the past few weeks may not be a fluke; a scout says since the Cardinals got Weaver to elevate his release point, he's pitched much better. But if Weaver gets that deer-in-the-headlights glaze in his eyes, which has happened to him in New York, the Mets are could roll right through the series. The Cardinals, however, clearly are relishing the underdog role for a change and, with the Yankees out of the picture, the Mets can count on getting more attention, and the pressure that goes with it.
But even if everything goes well for the Cardinals, the Mets have too good of a lineup. Prediction: Mets in seven games.
TOM GATTO, senior editor: Don't expect the Redbirds to shut down the Mets the way the Tigers shut down that other New York team. Yes, the Cardinals' bullpen is hot, and unlike the Dodgers it has two lefthanders -- Tyler Johnson and Randy Flores -- who can match up against a Mets lineup that has struggled against lefthanders. But New York has the depth and balance on offense to grind out the tough runs and blunt the lefthanders' effectiveness. And New York's relievers are coming off a big series themselves. Offense plus bullpen equals a trip to the World Series for the New Yorkers. Prediction: Mets in six.
KYLE VELTROP, associate editor: The Cardinals showed great resolve in the LDS, brushing off the stains of a late-season meltdown and of season-long mediocrity by easily dusting off the Padres. Jeff Suppan had an uneven start, but every other Cardinals pitcher looked great in the series, as the team allowed just six runs over the four games. But guess what? The Mets' offense is a whole heck of a lot better than the Padres', and Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran really like St. Louis' pitching. Should be some entertaining games, but Mets will most most of them. Prediction: Mets in six.
CHRIS BAHR, Fantasy Source expert: Did great pitching beat bad hitting in the NLDS, or did bad hitting beat itself? The Padres were absolutely dreadful with runners in scoring position against the Cardinals, but the Mets' lineup is loaded from top to bottom. Jeff Weaver a Game 1 starter? Chris Carpenter unavailable until Game 3? Relying on a rookie-heavy bullpen for another round? St. Louis simply doesn't have the pitching to combat the Mets' hitting. And New York has proven that its bullpen can more than make up for its injury-depleted rotation. Prediction: Mets in six.
RYAN AN, assistant editor: The Mets have more power; the Mets have more speed and the Mets won a lot more games this year. But I just can't get past their starting playoff rotation. It's not the stuff of a World Series team. Glavine's solid, but he's by far the best starter left standing and he's not going to be able to carry the rotation. He'll win Game 1, though. But who else do the Mets throw out there? John Maine, Steve Traschel and (shudder) Oliver Perez? You can't tell me the Cards, who seem to have a touch of confidence for the first time since May, are scared of that. Obviously these Cardinals have a lot of flaws, but they also have Albert Pujols (who should have only a handful of hits but a astronomical OBP during this series) and Chris Carpenter and playoff experience on their side. The Mets, aside from Glavine, are playoff newbies. In a postseason of shockers, this could be the biggest. Prediction: Cardinals in seven.
ERIN FARRELL, assistant editor: Their players were dropping like flies, but the Mets still were able to sweep the Dodgers. The Cardinals had most of their players for the first time in a while and had a bit more trouble with the Padres. The Mets also have veteran starters and proven stopper in their bullpen. The Cardinals' resurgent rotation and makeshift pen have been impressive, but they will break sooner or later, and I'm betting on sooner -- like when the Mets and their big bats visit St. Louis. Predictions: Mets in five.
SHAWN REID, assistant editor: The Mets' staff is still extremely shaky, but Chris Carpenter won't be available until Game 3. That leaves the Cardinals with Jeff Weaver and Jeff Suppan for Games 1 and 2 in New York. But there's good news, St. Louis fans - sort of. Weaver has been pretty effective on the road as a Cardinal, going 4-1 with a 4.03 ERA, so it's not insane to think he will give them a chance to win the first game. Suppan has been much worse on the road than at home, but he's going against John Maine in the second game, and that should provide an opportunity, too.
Without Pedro and El Duque, I just don't think the Mets' pitching staff is good enough to win a seven-game series. Oliver Perez is scheduled to start Game 4. Let me repeat: Oliver Perez. I think the Cardinals steal one of the opening two, win two of three at home, and clinch it with another dominant performance from Carpenter. Prediction: Cardinals in seven, even if it sounds crazy.
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