New Ways of Spurs Basketball

[polandprzem]

What do you mean timvp by saying gimmick?



Well this offense might be a fools gold when the playoff time will come, but we have to remember that the NBA is different then it was in the '90. So other teams do not have such possibilietes (rules and squads) playing same defense as it was in previous decade. So in that matter I have no prblem although we've got Mavs and Houston which can force spurs to play 1-1 and stop the so great for now ball movenment, and I'm talking about the half-court offense when Tim is on a low block.

The succes in todays NBA is the pace and spurs are realy good at it righ now. The transmition both ways is not that bad consideraiting their age
They could get burned if they start to play run n' gun as they don't have great shooters in team and are not that good of a rebounding team.

[ShoogarBear]

I don't see a lot of clear sailing for the time being.

-The rotations aren't set because of Manu's injury. It's hard enough to figure out Pop's rotations when the roster is stable, it's going to be impossible now.

-Pop still hasn't worked out how to optimize Oberto and Elson's splits, which will be most important against Houston and Miami (when Shaq gets back). Still need to find out how much we can depend on Elson for defense.

-Still don't know what to expect from Finley (although, like last year, he seems to be coming around once you start him).

-Still don't know what to expect from Beno.

-Rebounding.

-Even if all these questions get solved, it's still not clear that we have a better team than Dallas.

Should be enough uncertainty to keep Pop (and you) happy. Nothing is insurmountable, and if Tony/Manu/Tim are healthy, they've still got to be the odds-on favorites.

[ShoogarBear]

I think there are three important metrics for playoff success.

1. Defensive FG%. Nuff said.
2. Rebounding margin. Doesn't matter if you make them miss shots if you don't secure the rebound.
3. FT attempted margin. Note I didn't say FT% (although that's certainly nice, too). If you attempt a lot more FTs than your opponent is almost always means you were more aggressive, did a better job in the paint, and got the other team into foul trouble.

Last year for the first time in a few years the Spurs were deficient in #2 and #3. This year at least they're back to having the FTA advantage.

A while ago I actually tried to calculate the statistical weight of each of these factors in determining a championship, but it became a much harder problem than I originally thought.

[Nikos]

That was a good point. I want this team to be a great defensive team. Offensively, I don't really care. For some reason, this team will never be a consistently great offensive unit.

This is the part that sort of annoys me. The team has three very good offensive players, an elite perimeter defender, a defensive anchor in Tim Duncan. And yet they can't ever seem to be more than a slightly above average offensive team.

Last season Dallas was the exact opposite of the Spurs. Elite on the offensive side, slightly above average on defense. Actually the Spurs were probably the stronger overall team, but matchups and subpar play caused them to lose the series.

Really, what else is the problem with the team defense besides Duncan not playing as well as before? Considering the matchup defecit vs Dirk, can you really expect interior defense to be the savior for them against the Mavs from players not named Tim Duncan?

Elson will guard Dirk and hopefully he keeps him from going off every single game. Other than that? They will need to play good offense and not allow every single supporting Dallas player to get involved like last year. Part of their difficulty playing Dallas is the tough matchups, but Manu and Tony should be presenting these guys with similiar problems. Manu was easily the best offensive player in the series not named Duncan and Dirk. But I don't really remember Dallas ever saying how much of a problem. The way some posters act on here its as if Josh Howard and Jason Terry were all stars in the series. Neither was better than Tony, and both were playing weaker than Manu on the offensive side. Dirk wasn't even playing better basketball than Tim Duncan either. All that being said Manu and Tony could have played better earlier in the series on offense to help set the tone. The Game 2 loss was pathetic and should never happen to this team.

In the end Dallas simply had more weapons Dirk, Howard, Terry, Harris, and Stackhouse vs Duncan, Manu, and Tony on offense. Not to mention the rebounding edge Dallas had. If somehow the Spurs can get even stronger defense, AND offense from the big three and a few random role players -- that would be ideal.

Of course this is assuming these guys are playing against each other in the playoffs.

But to me in the playoffs, the Spurs will need offense just as much as they need their historically elite defense. Most of the time the Spurs can't play as good of defense in the playoffs against certain teams because of matchup defeciences. Good offense, and solid defense will allow the Spurs the chance to squash teams that have a matchup advantage here and there.

[Nikos]

I think there are three important metrics for playoff success.

1. Defensive FG%. Nuff said.
2. Rebounding margin. Doesn't matter if you make them miss shots if you don't secure the rebound.
3. FT attempted margin. Note I didn't say FT% (although that's certainly nice, too). If you attempt a lot more FTs than your opponent is almost always means you were more aggressive, did a better job in the paint, and got the other team into foul trouble.

Last year for the first time in a few years the Spurs were deficient in #2 and #3. This year at least they're back to having the FTA advantage.

A while ago I actually tried to calculate the statistical weight of each of these factors in determining a championship, but it became a much harder problem than I originally thought.

Key metrics should be: Offensive Points Per Possesion, Defensive Points Per Possession, Rebounding Margin. (Assuming of course that FTA's count as possesions). I think it is calculated by the stat geeks at around .44 when they use 82 NBA game data season to season. So of course getting to the FT line and hitting at a decent percentage helps a teams offense a lot. Having a high rebounding differential can also help get a team more possesions.

[RonMexico]

You all disappoint me... how soon you forget the 1980s where fast-breaking teams with tall, yet lean and agile big men dominated the decade. The officiating was just as bad then as it is now, but there were very few players pulling the Dirk-like yelling/flopping/jumping into players to draw attention - they just took their licks and kept on going.

However, defense still won championships, as those teams such as the Celtics and Lakers had that extra gear where they could turn it on and get 9 consecutive stops or so to shift the momentum of a game, and yet still score consistently at the other end. Personally, I don't know if the Spurs can keep up this kind of offensive pace, but I know they have that defensive aspect needed to pull out the big games. That's the one thing I still see the Suns lacking, even though I think the Suns are still the best offensive team in the game right now.

For years, I've been saying that SA and Phoenix should merge together and rattle off 8 championships like the Celtics of the 60s, but I'm starting to think that might not happen, sadly. At least, I want the Suns to watch some game film of the Spurs and look at how they play defense so the Suns can make those key defensive plays when their offense sputters.

Still, back to the Spurs, I think they've shown they can run with the Suns in the 2005 WCF and still keep the defense strong so I think this season of added offensive production can help that cause even more. The only thing that might de-rail them this year is a repeat of Avery Johnson's "bear-hug" ing and subsequent 900 FTs per game for Dirk.

[diego]

the thing that sticks out in my mind, I dont think ive seen more than 5 guys foul out against us in the past 3 seasons. you would think with tony, manu, and duncan we would be destroying the other teams frontline (and their rebounding advantage in the process!)

also, i agree with Nikos, the spurs cant be all defense and no offense. they should be good in both areas. I mean what good is it to get the stop, grab the board, then turn it over or brick it like the spurs used to do. I have no doubt in the playoffs we wont assist 70% of our baskets, but that doesnt mean pop cant get better production from a roster that includes the best bigman in the game, 2 good slashers, 2 opportunistic versatile bigs, and a truckload of shooters.

[wildbill2u]

Last 8 games the opponents have scored 86, 95, 78, 111, 83, 98, 89, and 82.

If you throw out the GSW anomaly, these are scores that most any team would love to hold their opponents to. Forget about our high scoring margins if you will, we'd still probably win most of those games with our old grind it out offense.

Remember opposing teams will score higher totals this year just because they get another shot on offense when they take the ball out of the basket when WE score.

[twincam]

Well if you think about it. Once they share the ball, it creates more shots and assists. As long as they keep shooting a consistent precentage, they should keep doing what they're doing. If their shooting drops, they need to go back to half court offense. High scoring can be a good thing. I was always a fan of the transition offense and not the half court. But whatever is working right now, is what they need to stick to. Do not fix something that is not broken.

[Texas_Ranger]

Questions:

1) Is this a good thing or could it be fool's gold come playoff time?

2) The NBA has become more high scoring since the low point in 1999. Last season, three teams made the conference finals that averaged over 99 points per game. Is this a new era of basketball in which offense wins championships, or was last year just a fluke?

3) Can the Spurs sustain this level of offensive play or will they come back to previous levels?

1: Until we are winning its good.

2: I still think that defense wins championships, so I would say it is was a fluke.

3: No mater how many points we score, just winning counts.

[pjjrfan]

I think the 2003 team was also a good team in transition and could run or slow it down when they had to. I would like this team to be able to do both. Manu coming off the bench really makes a difference. He gets to handle the ball more, be more creative, not rely on Tim or Tony and Manu uses everyone on the floor better than anyone else on the team. I still think that if our guys are healthy and on their games come playoff time they can beat anyone easily. But it's a long season and this team will have some downs and some highs, it's important for them to respond correctly to the down times.

[Fabbs]

So silly to think your offense has no effect on your defense.
When Spurs play 4 Dumb as opposed to 4 Down with player ball movement,
it allows very little chance for offensive rebound and great chance for opponent to get rebound transition break with most Spurs out of position.

"Defense Alone wins Championships" is a myth.

This crap about the Spurs winning with D only in the champ years.

[picnroll]

82games.com take

[SequSpur]

The last game that mattered, Ginobili gave it away. Let me know when one of these games in December matter.

[wildbill2u]

82games.com take

Good enough to copy for the lazybones.
YearChampionPPG Diff.FG%Def. FG%PPGAvg. PPG*Diff.*
1990Detroit6.0 (4).478 (15),447 (1)104.3 (19)107.0-2.7
1991Chicago9.0 (1).510 (2).475 (13)110.0 (7)106.33.7
1992Chicago10.4 (1).508 (1).460 (9)109.9 (5)105.34.6
1993Chicago6.3 (4).482 (11).474 (15)105.2 (15)105.3-0.1
1994Houston4.3 (6).475 (10).440 (3)101.1 (13)101.5-0.4
1995Houston2.1 (11).480 (6).453 (2)103.5 (8)101.42.1
1996Chicago12.2 (1).478 (7).448 (8)105.2 (1)99.55.7
1997Chicago10.8 (1).473 (3).436 (5)103.1 (1)96.96.2
1998Chicago7.1 (3).451 (15).431 (3)96.7 (9)95.61.1
1999San Antonio8.1 (1).456 (5).402 (1)92.8 (13)91.61.2
2000L.A. Lakers8.5 (1).459 (7).416 (1)100.8 (6)97.53.3
2001L.A. Lakers3.4 (8).465 (3).438 (12)100.6 (3)94.85.8
2002L.A. Lakers7.1 (2).461 (6).424 (1)101.3 (3)95.55.8
2003San Antonio5.4 (3).462 (4).427 (2)95.8 (12)95.10.7
2004Detroit5.8 (2).435 (19).413 (3)90.1 (24)93.4-3.3
2005San Antonio7.8 (1).453 (10).426 (3)96.2 (18)97.2-1.0
2006Miami3.9 (5).478 (2).440 (8)99.9 (6)97.02.9

Average Rank3.27.45.39.6#17142Top 5147115Top 1016131410

[timvp]

Spurs trash a few patsies and suddenly everyone's happy. That's just as bad as the bridge-jumpers after a loss.

Let's get some perspective. I want to see what they look like when they play the Hornets.

Did the Spurs pass their Judgement Day test?



Question.

[ChumpDumper]

Those were the Hornets?

[ShoogarBear]

Eh, I was expecting this to resurface.

If you want to use the evidence from this game as proof that the Hornets aren't a good defensive team, have at it.

[Solid D]

MOre LiKe the HorNOTs.

[timvp]

Eh, I was expecting this to resurface.

If you want to use the evidence from this game as proof that the Hornets aren't a good defensive team, have at it.

My bad. You're right.

Peja didn't play.

[ShoogarBear]

[wildbill2u]

Last 13 games the opponents have scored 86, 95, 78, 111, 83, 98, 89, 76, 82, 106 (Laker loss), 81, 82, and 77.

Forget about high scoring on the Spurs offense for a moment. Throw out the two losses which were anomalies (111 & 106) and the opponents are averaging 84 points a game. Take the last six games (after throwing out the Fakers) and the opponents are averaging 81 points a game.

We are handcuffing most teams defensively until they simply give up, crying "No mas, No mas" and Pop the Merciful sits our starters for most of the 4th quarter.

Our scoring differential must be through the roof. I'm not worried about our defense at all.

[timvp]

Last 13 games the opponents have scored 86, 95, 78, 111, 83, 98, 89, 76, 82, 106 (Laker loss), 81, 82, and 77.

Forget about high scoring on the Spurs offense for a moment. Throw out the two losses which were anomalies (111 & 106) and the opponents are averaging 84 points a game. Take the last six games (after throwing out the Fakers) and the opponents are averaging 81 points a game.

We are handcuffing most teams defensively until they simply give up, crying "No mas, No mas" and Pop the Merciful sits our starters for most of the 4th quarter.

Our scoring differential must be through the roof. I'm not worried about our defense at all.

Opponent's FG% is the stat to look at. When the Spurs win championships, they are always at the top of the league in that category.

On the season, the Spurs are 9th at 44.7%. That's the lowest they've ranked and the highest percentage they've given up in the Tim Duncan era. And it's not really getting better, seeing as the Spurs are allowing 44.8% over their last 10 games.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Way to on everyone's afternoon lj

[timvp]

Way to on everyone's afternoon lj

45.2% over the last five games.

Merry Christmas.