Reply With Quote
You're so...so...tropical
My mom and I went out to lunch and when I left it was warm. When we got out of the car to eat it was FREEZING. I hate this weather.
You're so...so...tropical
Now why do I picture S y saying tropical in a breathy Marilyn-esque voice?
Damn straight I'm tropical.
I think this was an interesting Discussion.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007
.DISCUSSION...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST INDICATES PERSISTENCE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDY SKIES...RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS...ALL IN ADVANCE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON MONDAY.
WHILE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE BEING FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS OF MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN MAINLY THE
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA...MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZES DO
OCCUR IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS...AND THERE CAN BE SIGNIFICANT CONSEQUENCES FOR VARIOUS
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THESE FREEZE EVENTS ARE
CHALLENGING TO FORECAST SINCE AN EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASS TENDS TO BE
SHALLOW...MAKING IT HARD FOR COMPUTER MODELS TO RESOLVE THE RELEVANT
PARAMETERS ON AN ADEQUATE SCALE...AND THESE EVENTS ARE INFREQUENT
ENOUGH SUCH THAT GOOD FORECASTING REFERENCES AND TOOLS ARE NOT
ROBUST.
ONE THING IS KNOWN...AND THAT IS THAT MAJOR FREEZE EVENTS IN THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC OUTBREAKS
SUCH AS THE ONE NOW TAKING PLACE. ALSO...THERE ARE SIMILARITIES
BETWEEN ARCTIC OUTBREAKS THAT CAN BE DESCRIBED IN A GENERAL
SENSE...AND IT MAY BE INSTRUCTIVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE CURRENT H5
PATTERN BASED ON ANALYSIS DONE BY MCFARLAND (1976).
THE MAIN H5 FEATURES TO BE LOOKING FOR...ACCORDING TO THE MCFARLAND
STUDY...ARE A DEEP POLAR VORTEX OVER BAFFIN BAY...A MAJOR TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES WITH AN EAST-WEST TROUGH LINE...
ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF THE TROUGH LINE AND NORTHERLY FLOW FROM A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROUGH LINE. KEY EVENTS INCLUDE THE
BREAK OUT OF A HIGH LA UDE SURFACE HIGH AFTER THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
OMEGA-TYPE BLOCK OVER NORTHWEST CANADA...THE SOUTHWARD MOVING
EAST-WEST TROUGH LINE LINKING UP WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER BAFFIN
BAY...CYCLOGENESIS IN THE BASE OF THE EAST-WEST TROUGH AS IT MOVES
SOUTH...FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC AIR MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE DEEPENING
TROUGH. THE CURRENT PATTERN DOES INDEED REFLECT MANY OF THE ABOVE
FEATURES...SO IT WILL PAY TO BE VIGILANT. THE MODELS ARE NOT
FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT FREEZE EVENT AT THE MOMENT...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THOSE
PROVIDED BY GUIDANCE.
AN INITIAL PREPARATORY COLD AIR MASS FROM NORTH CENTRAL CANADA IS
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS NOW...BUT IS PREVENTED FROM MOVING
FARTHER SOUTH JUST YET AS THERE IS A STROM SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LINE.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO KICK OUT BEFORE IT IS
OVERTAKEN BY ARCTIC AIR SPILLING OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA. IF THE H5
TROUGH HAD BEEN ABLE TO SWING SOUTH AND EAST A BIT MORE BEFORE BEING
OVERTAKEN BY COLD AIR...THERE MIGHT HAVE BEEN A BETTER CHANCE FOR A
STRONGER ARCTIC OUTBREAK. NONETHELESS...COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
REACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING...STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH
THROUGH THE BROWNSVILLE AREA AROUND MID DAY.
TIME HEIGHT ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LIFTING AND MOISTURE INCREASE TO 10
KFT WITH THE FRONT ON MONDAY...BRINGING INITIAL SHOWERS WHICH WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE COLD AIR WILL CREATE A
VERY STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE AND A STRONG INVERSION...SO THINK
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMIZED. LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING
TOWARD SHARP BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NOW IS DEVELOPING HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS...BUT QUICKER MOVING PUSH ON MONDAY WITH LIMITED UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD REDUCE HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL HERE BY THEN. AFTER
FROPA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STABILIZE AND BEGIN TO DECREASE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. A WEDGE OF COLD AIR AT THE BASE OF THE
INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 950 MB OR 2000 FT...OR JUST A BIT LOWER...
WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX...SLEET OR ICE PELLETS
AND HAVE INCLUDED THAT IN THE ZONE WORDING. WILL REASSESS POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER WEATHER WATCH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEFORE ISSUING ANY OF
THOSE PRODUCTS.
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM FOR SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES...SINCE THESE
SEEM TO REFLECT THINGS BETTER. TEMPERATURES WILL THEREFORE BE
DECREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER ABOUT WEDNESDAY WILL BLEND THE GFS BACK INTO THE GRIDS.
LOCAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO MODIFY BY AROUND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFILTRATION ENDS. NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED A WEEK FROM
TODAY AS MORE COLD AIR DESCENDS FROM CANADA.
&&
Man thats a long discussion. Thats a pretty interesting read though - for weather geeks - because it gives a good background on how the situation sets up on a large and nearly global scale.
Its true that if the low wasn't developing in the southwest we'd be freezing our asses off right now and we also wouldn't have the ice.
Anyhow, because the tempature is going to be hovering so close to the freezing point starting tomorrow and probably all of Monday, different parts of town will see different conditions. This is a pretty cool page to find a weather station near you to see what the conditions are like. 2-3 degrees will be a big difference in conditions over the next few days.
http://www.wunderground.com/stationm...ic=1&wmo=99999
Ha ha, nice. Man vs. wild, Dallas ice storm edition...
With a foreman grill? Ha!
With a foreman grill? Ha!Okay, you got a point... And I won't have to gather downed limbs for a shelter, either. But besides that, it's all the same...
With the exception of the roof, four walls, R-25 insulation, central heat, soft bed....yea, I can see the similarities between you and the Frog.
I got a tent. Who wants to go camping?
Well, looking over the model runs for the NAM, on early Tuesday morning it shows the 5000 ft layer to be below freezing and a good amount of precipitation happening here. I believe that would indicate snow, but I'm not completely sure. We'll see when the next discussion comes out.
So that means you aren't coming out of your house at all until about Friday?
Yeah I don't know, but I hate going out when its this cold. I went out today when it was still warm, and by the time I got back I was close to being dead. If we get all the ice and snow, I'll have to go out to take pictures and what not, but otherwise I'm going to curl up in a blanket with coffee/soup.
I hate the cold.
Well, they haven't put up the new discussion yet, but they have the new forcasts up. Snow/Sleet Monday night/Tuesday morning is what they are calling for. Probably turning from Snow to rain on Tuesday.
They show the low tonight (sunday night) as 33 with heavy rain, so I think there is a decent chance of ice tonight as well.
I just want to know what happened to all the global warming articles that were out two weeks ago? I guess they shut the up now the nation is freezing
This weather is GREAT!!!!
Some tree limbs are starting to sag here in Plano. Several overpasses throughout DFW already closed. Let the fun begin...
Manny is going into hibernation.So that means you aren't coming out of your house at all until about Friday?
I hate the cold too, lucky for me it's 70 degreesThese rough winters are a
Wow! According to the last NAM run, we'd be under freezing all day Tuesday and maybe Wednesday as well. That gives a huge window for snowfall and ac ulation. Also, if there is a widespread snow event the way there was on Christmas 2 years ago, the snow itself will act as a device to keep the air near the surface colder. This will be an interesting 48 hours.
Tonight may see freezing rain, but I kinda doubt it. I think tomorrow night is the real deal though.
I just want to know what happened to all the global warming articles that were out two weeks ago? I guess they shut the up now the nation is freezing
Ah, the typical knee-jerk "look, we got three days of cold weather so let's ignore the trends of the last fifty years" response. Congrats on not seeing the forest for the trees.
Damn, power was out for about three hours today.
Manny, FWIW, they were talking here about the air up above 3000 feet being in the 50+ degree range, which was precluding the snow.
We're getting freezing rain here right now. Hope I get a snow/ice day tomorrow
Kinda like last year's bull about all the hurricanes being caused by global warming and then we didn't have any serious hurricanes this year stuff, huh?
I can see the trees just fine. They're frozen over though
How far south could snowfall reach? Corpus maybe?
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions