Spurs vs. Nuggets Game 3 - Grades

[timvp]

And the hardcore Spurs fan might like to know that the Spurs are now 15-1 all-time in the playoffs when Tim Duncan has between 10 and 25 points, at least 5 assists and at least 3 blocks.

The only time the Spurs have ever lost a playoff game in that cir stance?

Game 1 versus the Denver Nuggets in 2007.

[aaronstampler]

The Spurs improved to 9-0 all-time in the playoffs when Manu Ginobili attempts at least ten free throws and dishes out at least five assists. As I said, when Manu is playing that aggressive yet smart style of basketball, the Spurs are pretty damn hard to beat.

The Spurs also improved to 13-1 all-time in the playoffs when Tony Parker makes at least ten field goals. The Spurs are simply tough to beat when Parker is in attack mode and is shooting a lot.

Game 3 was almost a perfect illustration of the Spurs All-Star guards at their best in terms of what it takes for the Spurs to win playoff games.

Except the Manu part makes sense because free throws and assists are good things. Your Tony part should come with an *.


*He can make as many as he wants, as long as he shoots over 50%.


Here's an eye-opener for you to work your noodle around.

Since '02-03

Tony in playoff games where he misses at least 10 shots more than he makes:

12-14

'03: 3-5
'04: 1-3
'05: 4-3
'06: 3-2
'07: 1-1
Total: 12-14 (.462 Win %)


Tony in playoff games where he misses less than 10 shots more than he makes:

35-12

'03: 13-3
'04: 5-1
'05: 12-4
'06: 4-4
'07: 1-0
Total: 35-12 (.745 Win %)


I might be stepping on a huge limb here, LJ, but I'm going to theorize that perhaps when Tony isn't having himself a good shooting game, it might be a good idea to quit jacking them up in a Quixotic quest to get back to 50%. When Tony's missing A LOT of shots, we're a below .500 playoff team. I would suggest that on the 46% of the time we've managed to win such games, that perhaps you should give more credit to Tony's teammates for succeeding in spite of him than praising Tony's limitless courage to keep shooting no matter how groany the home crowd gets (or how cheery if we're on the road) or how each of his misses makes Manu go a little bit balder.

[aaronstampler]

So please dude, spare me your bogus stat where the Spurs are 12-4 in playoff games where Tony shoots 20+ times.

You deftly forget to mention that in 10 of those 16, he shot 50% or better. Who's going to complain about a guy who's shooting well?

In the six games he shot below 50%, we're 4-2. In the 10 he shot above 50%, we're 8-2. Oooooh. Amazing.

And if you really want some wizardry, check out the box scores for the stats of the opposing point guard. Only once in those six below 50% games did Tony allow his counterpart to shoot 50%.

Guess when it was?

Game 1 vs. Denver. Iverson was 11-22. (Or if you prefer, Blake was 3-6).

When Tony shot 10 of 23 in Game 3, it was offset by his sterling defensive work and AI shot an even worse 7 of 20.

Like I said, It's the defense, stupid.

It's seldom for Tony to shoot 20 times unless he's having a good night, because usually either his conscience or Pop's patience causes him to knock that off after attempt 18 or so. I am a bit alarmed that he's had two 20+ attempt, below 50% games out of 3 so far in round 1. That to me suggests he is more shot happy than ever, and that is NOT a good thing, unless he's makin' em.

[Slippy]

Tony, a few times did force shots but over-all his shot selection was good. Hard to knock shots that come from the offense been run or when there's a mis-match.

[Obstructed_View]

The Spurs are always better when Parker penetrates. Always. Unfortunately he's going against two good shot blockers and his teammates are too busy getting back on D to go to the front of the rim when he goes into the paint, so there's nobody to pass to for an easy dunk. His percentage is therefore going to suffer and his turnovers are going to be higher. It's a minor matchup problem that won't happen against anyone else in the playoffs.

[aaronstampler]

Check out 82games.com lately?

After three games Bowen's net +/- is -11.6, Duncan's is -10.6, and Tony's is -9.7.

I guess that means they're all playing terrible, huh?

[timvp]

Except the Manu part makes sense because free throws and assists are good things. Your Tony part should come with an *.


*He can make as many as he wants, as long as he shoots over 50%.


Here's an eye-opener for you to work your noodle around.

Since '02-03

Tony in playoff games where he misses at least 10 shots more than he makes:

12-14

'03: 3-5
'04: 1-3
'05: 4-3
'06: 3-2
'07: 1-1
Total: 12-14 (.462 Win %)


Tony in playoff games where he misses less than 10 shots more than he makes:

35-12

'03: 13-3
'04: 5-1
'05: 12-4
'06: 4-4
'07: 1-0
Total: 35-12 (.745 Win %)


I might be stepping on a huge limb here, LJ, but I'm going to theorize that perhaps when Tony isn't having himself a good shooting game, it might be a good idea to quit jacking them up in a Quixotic quest to get back to 50%. When Tony's missing A LOT of shots, we're a below .500 playoff team. I would suggest that on the 46% of the time we've managed to win such games, that perhaps you should give more credit to Tony's teammates for succeeding in spite of him than praising Tony's limitless courage to keep shooting no matter how groany the home crowd gets (or how cheery if we're on the road) or how each of his misses makes Manu go a little bit balder.

Your Manu loving azz just proved that the Spurs go as Parker's offense goes. Thanks for proving the point I've been trying to nail into your head for the last month.

You can try to twist the stats any way you want, but the fact remains that when Parker is scoring, that is the best indicator of the Spurs playing playoff winning basketball. You always whine that Parker should just keep passing it more to your man Manu, when in fact Parker being an offense first player wins the Spurs playoff games.

If you want to draw up a game plan that has had the most success in garnering Spurs playoff wins, you'd want Parker being the first option offensively, Manu being aggressive by getting to the line and creating for others, and Duncan blocking shots, racking up assists and scoring between 15-25 points.

That gameplan has the Spurs winning 95% of the time since 2003.

[aaronstampler]

So what exactly are we supposed to do when Tony isn't making his shots? Stick our thumbs up our asses and go, "Oh well, maybe he'll do better the next game.."?

The whole point, which you've clearly missed (this is getting less and less surprising for me, btw) is if Tony's struggling early, then passing might be a good idea instead of trying to shoot himself out of a slump.

[Solid D]

Not as of today, 3 games.

http://www.82games.com/0607/playoffs/0607SAS1.HTM

San Antonio Spurs
2006-2007 NBA PLAYOFFS

Individual Player Floor Time statistics
Player Min....+/- Off. Def Net48 W L Win%
Oberto 40% +16 100.8 87.5 +13.3 3 0 100
Horry 48% +15 99.0 88.7 +10.4 2 1 66.7
Ginobili 62% +11 99.1 93.3 +5.8 2 1 66.7
Barry 15% +11 99.9 76.5 +23.4 3 0 100
Finley 65% +6 96.3 93.3 +3.0 2 1 66.7
Parker 79% +4 97.3 95.6 +1.7 2 1 66.7
Vaughn 21% +2 82.1 79.1 +3.0 1 1 50.0
Duncan 78% +2 93.7 92.8 +0.8 1 2 33.3
Bonner 1% -4 35.3 106.0 -70.7 0 1 0.0
Bowen 60% -6 86.5 89.8 -3.3 1 1 50.0
Elson 24% -17 73.7 97.0 -23.2 1 2 33.3

[td4mvp21]

So what exactly are we supposed to do when Tony isn't making his shots? Stick our thumbs up our asses and go, "Oh well, maybe he'll do better the next game.."?

The whole point, which you've clearly missed (this is getting less and less surprising for me, btw) is if Tony's struggling early, then passing might be a good idea instead of trying to shoot himself out of a slump.

You go with 4-down and make Tim the first option. Then, Ginobili. Parker will always be the Spurs first option; it took me forever to get it through my stubborn head why. He is aggressive and is able to get off to fast starts; that is why he gets the most shots in the first quarter. The Spurs feed off of his energy. Also, like Timvp said, when Parker scores we almost always win. Now, I don't want him shooting 25+ times, that's when it hurts, but most of the time Parker is very efficient and will give you 25-30 points on less than 20 shots along with 5-7 assists and several rebounds. He's a very good player and you should stop hating on him.

[gilmor]

Aaron doesn't get it..

In about 5 years.. Tony Parker will prob be the best player in the Spurs team and Aaron won't be supporting Spurs anymore cos Manu will retire

[timvp]

So what exactly are we supposed to do when Tony isn't making his shots? Stick our thumbs up our asses and go, "Oh well, maybe he'll do better the next game.."?

The whole point, which you've clearly missed (this is getting less and less surprising for me, btw) is if Tony's struggling early, then passing might be a good idea instead of trying to shoot himself out of a slump.

Yeah, because the Spurs are 2-6 lifetime in the playoffs when Parker scores less than ten points and has more than three assists. Great gameplan. Did you come up with that all by yourself?

I'm sick of replying to your 'Manu is God, Tony is Evil' takes. Get back to me after the playoffs and perhaps I will read another of your posts at that time.

[aaronstampler]

Three assists? Is that the standard we're setting now? My goodness.

[aaronstampler]

And I don't recall saying anywhere that I want Tony to score less than 10 points. Continue to throw at the wall though.

[Spurs Dynasty 21]

3 games gone by and Duncan is due for a monster A level game



35+pts 15+rbs type Duncan dominance