Yeah, you make a good point here.
The difference then in Tony's effectiveness against different teams was how successfully they would be able to keep him out of the paint. Should they be able to do so effectively, that's when he would need his J to be on to stretch out the defense.
It was no secret even before that Tony was first and foremost a slasher, so all opposing teams wanted to take that away from him. Some were more successful than others, some failed miserably at it.
My main argument against your point would probably be that situations where Tony was effectively shut out of the paint and had to exclusively rely on his J were the minority in both the 04 and 05 seasons, compared to situations where Tony would still find ways to the rim despite the opposing team knowing his strength and taking steps to work against that. More often than not, he would still be able to play to his strength.
To sum it up, he would need his J as his main weapon only on a situational basis, while his bread and butter (and always should be his first option, scoring-wise) would be his ability to get to the rim.

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