Rita and Corpus Christi

[Ginofan]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/20:20:10Z
B. 25 deg 49 min N
089 deg 22 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 111 kt
G. 134 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 913 mb
I. 10 C/ 3658 m
J. 16 C/ 3654 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z

[travis2]

NAM is saying Matagorda Bay about Saturday noon...and then a left hook towards SA...

WTF???

[Marklar MM]

[Ginofan]

NAM is saying Matagorda Bay about Saturday noon...and then a left hook towards SA...

WTF???

WTF, indeed! How long before the next GFS is out?

[travis2]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/20:20:10Z
B. 25 deg 49 min N
089 deg 22 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 111 kt
G. 134 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 913 mb
I. 10 C/ 3658 m
J. 16 C/ 3654 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C17
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z

Closed wall...single radius on the eye measurement. Looks like the replacement cycle is over.

Pressure creeping back down a bit too...

[Vashner]

Oh well fill the guadalupe is real low anyway.. we need the rain..

If it fills up would be good for one more last Bergheim tube trip b4 october cool fronts.

[travis2]

WTF, indeed! How long before the next GFS is out?

GFS should kick off in the next 10 minutes or so...should have info out to landfall in about an hour...

[Shelly]

I wish they'd make up their minds! I'm tired of searching for SW's map!

[CosmicCowboy]

damn...when was the last time the models disagreed so much this close to landfall? This is wacked.

[Ginofan]

I wish they'd make up their minds! I'm tired of searching for SW's map!

I keep checking the Google Maps.

[SpursWoman]

I wish they'd make up their minds! I'm tired of searching for SW's map!

I actually printed it out and it's to the left of my computer at work for easy reference...

[travis2]

Landfall (maybe a couple of hours after)...


End of run...early Monday morning...

[Ginofan]

Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 21

Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on September 22, 2005

...Dangerous Hurricane Rita gradually heading toward the southwest
Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
north of the mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the
Pearl River including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the
southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of
the mouth of the Pearl River including metropolitan New Orleans and
Lake Pontchartrain....and from south of Port O'Connor to Port
Mansfield Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

A tropical Strom watch remains in effect from south of Port
Mansfield to Brownsville Texas...and for the northeastern coast of
Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
la ude 25.8 north...longitude 89.5 west or about 405 miles...
650 km...southeast of Galveston Texas and about 390 miles... 630
km...southeast of Port Arthur Texas.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. On this track...the core of Rita will be approaching the
southwest Louisiana and the Upper Texas coast late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Rita is a extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 205 miles...335 km. Anytropical Strom force winds in the New
Orleans area are expected to be confined to a few squalls
associated with quickly moving rainbands. At 3 PM CDT...a NOAA buoy
reported a 10-minute average wind of 89 mph...143 km/hr with a gust
to 112 mph...180 km/hr.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force plane was
913 mb...26.96 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Tides are currently running about 2 feet above normal along the
Louisiana...Mississippi and Alabama coasts in the areas affected by
Katrina. Tides in those areas will increase to 3 to 5 feet and be
accompanied by large waves...and residents there could experience
coastal flooding.

Rainfall ac ulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated maximum 15
inch totals are possible along the path of Rita over southeast Texas
and southwestern Louisiana as it moves inland. Based on the
forecast track...totals ac ulations in excess of 25 inches are
possible over the next several days as the system slows down. In
addition...rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible over
southeastern Louisiana including New Orleans.

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...25.8 N... 89.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145
mph. Minimum central pressure... 913 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM
CDT.

Forecaster Avila

[SpursWoman]

Oh well fill the guadalupe is real low anyway.. we need the rain..

If it fills up would be good for one more last Bergheim tube trip b4 october cool fronts.

After the last 2 floods the Guadalupe was closed for an extended period of time because of all of the people's houses 'n stuff floating in it.

[Vashner]

Yea I was in there scuba diving looking for stuff. Me and some friends did a river dive in it about a week after that flood that wiped out part of NB. It was nice in some places it took out all the mud and just left a bunch of exposed limestone. We found pottery and other junk.. but nothing of value (we would of turned in any personal effects). And yea my Dr. let's me dive but I just have to roll my gear into the water instead of standing up..

[Sonia_TX]

Is this storm just trying to take out ALL of Texas? WTF?

(in reference to people saying it will go up to Dallas then come back towards us then to Laredo. Maybe after that it will head to EP then to Lubbock...might as well. )

[travis2]

Is this storm just trying to take out ALL of Texas? WTF?

(in reference to people saying it will go up to Dallas then come back towards us then to Laredo. Maybe after that it will head to EP then to Lubbock...might as well. )

Don't give it any ideas...

[Sonia_TX]

Sorry Travis. :/

[Ginofan]

Reconnaissance flights this afternoon indicate that the weakening phase Rita went through has ceased. Her central presure has held steady between 913 and 915 mb between noon and 4 pm, and the surface winds are steady at about 145 - 150 mph. Rita is a strong Category 4 hurricane. She appears to be going through a collapse of the inner eyewall, which the hurricane hunters have noted has a large gap in it. It may take 12 - 24 hours for Rita to rebuild her eyewall. During that time, some fluctuations in strength may occur, but weakening is most likely. This would occur as a result of 10 knots of shear on her south side from an upper-level high pressure system, and from passage over ocean waters with less heat content. By landfall time on Saturday afternoon, it is expected that Rita will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, but still carry to the coast a storm surge characteristic of a much stronger hurricane. A Category 4 or 5 level storm surge is likely along a 60 - 80 miles stretch of coast to the right of where the storm makes landfall on Saturday. Storm surge heights will peak at 15 - 20 feet in some bays, and bring the ocean inland up to 50 miles from the coast. Large sections of I-10 between Houston and Beaumont could be inundated, and the flood waters may reach the cities of Beaumont, Orange, and Lake Charles.

So no go on the completing the EWRC? I'm confused.

[travis2]

I don't get it either...

[Ginofan]

Where's SuperManny when you need him

[Shelly]

Where's SuperManny when you need him

He's still out looking for water....

[CosmicCowboy]

This is a crazy storm...look at the variance in the models...one bright spot is that the UKMET has been reall accurate this year...and it's the furthest track to the East...

[Shelly]

I think HAL got to the computers.

[Vashner]

Relax a bit.. it's nice to look at models and stuff but weather is still somewhat .. err random. Be prepared for short power outages... have dry food and water, candles, ammo.. whatever.. and just relax...