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manny what do you make out of this. will we get any rain from the leftovers
beno keeps lookin at me funny
manny what do you make out of this. will we get any rain from the leftovers
thanks i needed a laugh to get rid of this worry.
manny what do you make out of this. will we get any rain from the leftovers
WTF is up with the BAMM
Why would the storm just stop and take a 95
Steve Browne is cool...he is the White Manny! :p
The BAMM sucks. Manny said that it doesn't do well with the deep storms like this.
we are gonna get some winds
maybe some winds
The 0z run of the NAM is coming out. It has the storm slowing even more off the coast which is good news because it would weaken offshore.
But one thing that isn't good news is the fact that if the NAM verifies, San Antonio could be in for a flood event. The motion over the past 2 hours gives the NAM some more creedence. The 0z GFS run will be interesting to say the least.
Hmmm from that it looks like there will be 30 - 40 mph winds for me. My mom just wants some rain because we need it.we are gonna get some winds
maybe some winds
It's already way east. it, come on Rita, go to New Orleans. Everything over there is already ed up anyway.
I'm leaning to believing the NAM. It seems to have a better grasp on the ridge and is getting a good handle on things.
The bad news? The latest run is showing a direct hit on Galvaston.
So about 30-32 hours till landfall?
I think longer than that. Probably 45-48 hours.
The NHC is wrong, and they're just being slow to admit it.
I'm tending to favor the NAM/ETA right about now. It has verified quite well for several runs, and it continues to do so. I don't know what the GFS is about to spit out in an hour and a half, but I think it will be a lot closer to this line of thinking.
Rita is going to slow imensley as she comes ashore. She probably won't make landfall for over 48 hours. Hopefully this will lead to weakening as she is in the shallow waters over the coast. By contrast, it will dump a lot more rain over Houston. I think landfall just east of Freeport is where she'll come ashore.
Then, when she does make landfall, she's not going very far north of Houston. She'll sit there for days, dumping rain. Tropical Storm Allison anyone?
Once the trof digs in from the west, she'll be pushed to the southwest along the high pressure that will develop over Arizona and untill the trof comes and lifts her out.
Take it for what its worth. I'm not trained, but this scenairo makes the most sense by looking at the 500mb winds and how the NAM has played out. I think the GFS will definetly catch onto it on the next few runs. We'll see, but I'm sticking to this.
The New York Times
September 22, 2005
Rita's Rains Start Falling on New Orleans
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 11:04 p.m. ET
NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- In a grim opening salvo from Hurricane Rita, a steady rain began falling Thursday on New Orleans for the first time since Katrina laid waste to the city, and engineers rushed to shore up the broken levees for fear of another ruinous round of flooding.
The forecast called for 3 to 5 inches of rain in New Orleans in the coming days. That is dangerously close to the amount engineers said could send floodwaters pouring back into neighborhoods that have been dry for less than a week.
The storm took a sharper-than-expected turn to the right on Thursday, setting it on a course that could spare Houston and nearby Galveston a direct hit. But that raised the risk that the hurricane could strike much closer to New Orleans.
''Right now, it's a wait-and-see and hope-for-the-best,'' Army Corps of Engineers spokesman Mitch Frazier said a few hours before the National Guard cut off all access into New Orleans.
He said the forecast brought renewed urgency to efforts to shore up levees with sandbags and bring in more portable pumps. The corps also installed 60-foot sections of metal across some of the city's canals to protect against storm surges.
The lack of rain since Hurricane Katrina ripped through the city more than three weeks ago has been one of the few blessings for New Orleans. On Thursday, relief workers at Mardi Gras World, the city's largest builder of parade floats, handed out free tarpaulins to homeowners to keep Rita's rain from coming through their damaged roofs.
The entire Mississippi delta region was under a tropical storm warning. To the west of New Orleans, the storm was expected to bring 15 to 20 inches of rain to southwestern Louisiana. Gov. Kathleen Blanco resorted to campaign tactics, recording a telephone message that was delivered to more than 400,000 residents along the southern edge of the state.
''Rita has Louisiana in her sights,'' Blanco said at a news conference. ''Head north. You cannot go east, you cannot go west. If you know the local roads that go north, take those.''
As for those who refuse to leave, she said: ''Perhaps they should write their Social Security numbers on their arms with indelible ink.''
National Guard and medical units were put on standby. Helicopters were being positioned, and search-and-rescue boats from the state wildlife department were staged on high ground on the edge of Rita's projected path. Blanco said she also asked for 15,000 more federal troops.
''Prepare your family and prepare your house,'' she warned. ''I'm urging Louisiana citizens to take this storm very seriously.''
Forecasters said the storm was expected to come ashore on the Texas coast and turn north along a path not far from the Louisiana state line. It was a chilling prediction for the town of Lake Charles, not far from the border.
''At first, our evacuation orders were just for the low-lying areas, but now it's the entire Calcasieu Parish,'' said Cindy Murphy, a manager at the police bureau in Lake Charles. ''We've got buses running continuously to get residents out. We're trying to learn from other areas, not to repeat their mistakes.''
A traffic jam of evacuees extended from Houston and other Texas cities well into Louisiana, with Interstate 10 congested from Lake Charles to Baton Rouge. State police said the biggest backups were at exits where cars stacked up in long lines of motorists trying to get gasoline.
Janell LeDoux and her husband spent six hours on the freeway and covered just 80 miles from their home near Lake Charles east to Lafayette. And they were only halfway to her sister's house in eastern Louisiana.
''I just hope we have something left to go home to. Not like in New Orleans,'' she said. Four gas stations in Lafayette had run dry. A fifth station had only premium.
Glynn Stevenson -- who swam out of his New Orleans house with belongings taped to his body -- had just gotten settled in New Iberia in a trailer provided by the Federal Emergency Management Authority when the call came for him to uproot again.
''You can't do nothin' about it,'' he said. ''All you can do is praise the Lord.''
Katrina's death toll in Louisiana rose to 832 on Thursday, pushing the body count to at least 1,069 across the Gulf Coast. But workers under contract to the state to collect the bodies were taken off the streets of New Orleans because of the approaching storm.
New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin continued to urge residents to leave. A mandatory evacuation order was in effect for homes on the eastern bank of the Mississippi, and police said people in the city's Algiers section on the other side of the river would be wise to get out, too. But thousands stayed put.
''I'm not going. I'm sticking it out,'' said Florida Richardson, who was sitting on her front porch in the Algiers Point neighborhood and holding her grandson on her lap. ''This house is 85 years old. It's seen a lot of tornadoes and a lot of hurricanes. You can't run from the power of God.''
Up the street, Michael Briscoe said: ''If you're a true New Orleanian, you've got to go down with the ship. How can you leave?''
Nagin said he was confident most people had left the city and tried to remain optimistic about New Orleans' future.
''Up until Rita, everyone was pretty upbeat,'' Nagin said during a blustery outdoor news conference amid intermittent rain. ''Now that Rita has come into the picture, it's been difficult.''
In the lower Ninth Ward, where water broke through a levee and caused some of the worst flooding, there was standing water a foot deep in areas that were dry a day earlier. Chad Rachel, a civil engineer with the Army corps, said the water level in the canal was rising and ''localized seepage'' was inevitable.
''Any drop of rain that falls is going to stay,'' he said.
At a shelter in Baton Rouge, 75 miles northwest of New Orleans, the topic of the day was Rita and what more rain might do to battered neighborhoods back home. Some evacuees said they could not bear to track Rita's progress.
''Everyone is running from Rita,'' added Timothy Parker of New Orleans. ''I don't watch no TV; it's too depressing. My house is gone and everything. You ain't sorrier than me, you couldn't imagine.''
Along the Louisiana coast, the road leading out of the fishing community of Cypremort Point was filled with pickup trucks hauling boats.
''Since Katrina, everybody seems a little nervous. They don't want to get pulled from rooftops,'' said Billy Landry, a marina manager who planned to haul thousands of soft-s crabs to safety.
One man who remained through Hurricane Lili in 2002 was not about to leave this time.
''I've got alligator lines to set,'' said us Landry, who hunts the animals for a living. ''I'll put my truck on high ground, and if the water gets higher than I expected and into my house, I'll climb up in a tree.''
^------
Associated Press writers Adam Nossiter in New Orleans, Brett Martel in Cypremort Point, Julia Silverman in Lafayette and Doug Simpson in Baton Rouge contributed to this report.
* Copyright 2005 The Associated Press
MannyBonics, it's "trough", not "trof".
Don't worry. It's an Anglo-Saxon word, not a Graeco-Latin
But the rest of your written English is coming along really well.
Hey asshole, it is trof.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/forecasts/afd.html
Don't worry, its a meteorlogical term, not Anglo-Saxon.Shortwave Trof: An upper level disturbance usually embedded in the flow aloft. Relatively quick moving. Usually produces unsettled weather.
Longwave Trof: A large dip in the upper level jetstream. Slow moving. Usually produces unsettled weather.
Unfortunetly, the rest of your posts still suck ass.
I agree with you Manny! Good call!
Hey asshole, it is trof.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/forecasts/afd.html
Don't worry, its a meteorlogical term, not Anglo-Saxon.
Unfortunetly, the rest of your posts still suck ass.
Hey asshole, it is trof.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sjt/html/forecasts/afd.html
Don't worry, its a meteorlogical term, not Anglo-Saxon.
Unfortunetly, the rest of your posts still suck ass.
area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville Tx
800 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 22 2005
.discussion...made Adjustments To The Wind Field To Agree With Our
Current Watches And Warnings Earlier. Powerful Hurricane Rita Was
Located Near La ude 26.0 North...longitude 89.9 West Or About 350
Miles...565 Km...east-southeast Of Galveston Texas And About 290
Miles...465 Km...southeast Of Cameron Louisiana...or 470 Miles East
Of Brownsville. Jogs And Wobbles Of This Massive Natural Structure
Makes One Skiddish To Drop Any Watches Or Warnings Along Coast Areas
Of Deep South Texas...with One Model Still Persisting On The Chance
For Westward Progression Toward Our Area With Time. By The 00z Runs
And Subsequent Analysis...a More Prudent Decision Can Be Made As To
Any Dangers Posed By This Hurricane To Residents Of The Rio Grande
Valley.
With This In Mind...will Not Change Or Recommend Change At 10 Pm
Issuance Of Advisory 22 To Our Current Watches And Warnings In
Effect For The Cwa.
sorry to post this but i need you guys to humor me please i'am going through a lot of stress. we had to go gas up today because they told us that we would not have any by tonight. so i need some humor guys please.
There are tons of humor threads in this forum, and you want us to humor you in this one?
Well this is a hurricane thread...an informational one at that...I doubt there will be much humor..mostly weather nerd discussion stuff...
sorry to post this but i need you guys to humor me please i'am going through a lot of stress. we had to go gas up today because they told us that we would not have any by tonight. so i need some humor guys please.
dude my aunt is still stuck in traffic somewhere and this is about rita k.There are tons of humor threads in this forum, and you want us to humor you in this one?
i really need to get rid of this worry.
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