Why the Spurs probably shouldn't draft a center in the lottery

[PhantomDashCam]

Context again is important when discussing Poeltl and his contract extension (at the time).

1. Spurs had two ball dominant, ISO, mid-range pieces that made the likelihood of Poeltl’s impact suboptimal.

2. You could make the case that Poeltl’s ascendancy led to Aldridge’s decline in minutes, then value leading to a buyout rather than any useful trade.

3. He’s good enough to keep the team compe ive but perhaps not elevate them above that. A running theme with the franchise for the last 3 years.

[SAGirl]

As a franchise player or a basketball player skills wise, Towns is far above Poeltl. But for our team I would rather have Poeltl than Towns. There’s a number of reasons for it. The first is at ude. Poeltl isn’t a malcontent at all and is no longer a lazy POS. Pop got that coached out of him by not playing him or starting him. It humbled him to a degree. You can’t do that with Towns. He would whine and then ask for a trade and demand to be treated differently bc he’s a #1 pick. It’s why the Wolves have been ty with him, it’s why they brought in KG his last year to try and mold him when he was young and show him what he needed. It’s why they brought in Jimmy Butler. The whole franchise knows that Towns doesn’t put any effort into half of the floor. It’s not that he’s a bad defender or slow or incapable of it, he flat out refuses to do it.

What Towns does significantly better than Poeltl is score the basketball. He posts better and has a much much better shot. He has worked his tail off in that aspect of his game. There’s zero comparison here between the two. Poeltl has so many flaws offensively that it’s ridiculous. BUT he has learned something extremely important and id argue that if Towns would do this one thing then the Wolves would be a better team

Poeltl creates space for others like nobody else’s business. When his man clogs the paint, Poeltl will literally grab them and shove them out of the way to create space for DJ or whoever. The refs will call it maybe once a game but it changes the whole flow of the offense. Towns creates nothing for any of his teammates when he doesn’t have the ball.

The reason why the Wolves are good has way more to do with Ant than it does Towns. Towns has literally put up the same numbers for like 5 straight years. It’s not like he just upped his production. Ant plays defense. The pirate plays defense. Ant can break down defenses. Ant pushes the ball like crazy and gets the tempo up. The fact that the media chose KAT over Ant doesn’t mean to me. He is a winner and KAT is a loser. And he isn’t worth $40 million a year. He just isn’t. If I had to chooses between over paying Jak by 3 million and overpaying KAT by 20 million then I’m gonna choose Jak.

Jak also doesn’t whine about touches. He isn’t a reason why a top 5 playoff performer left the team in Jimmy Butler. Jak won’t get a coach fired 5 times. KAT thinks of himself as a guard now and just shoots jumpers ever since he won the 3 point contest. The dude also had a 4 point playoff performance not too long ago. KAT has talent but he doesn’t have the right at ude. Next year this wolves team will miss the playoffs unless Ant to shoot better by next year.

Now Vale is better than Poeltl. The Pels have a playoff team next year with a healthy Zion.

I appreciate engaging with you KobesAquiles, you are kind of a fun and colorful personality. This is a good discussion, but in the interest of staying on topic I'll say, we launched in this lengthy sidebar discussion when you went and said that Jakob is top 10 in the league and that only Jokic is above him in the Western conference. I disagreed and we went from there. I think Jakob is a good player and I appreciate him, but going that far was a homer take. There are better centers out there. We have not even discussed Ayton, which I kept out of the conversation bc it could launch us both in an even longer "diatribe" and I don't have interest on that.

To keep on track, Jakob is due a significant raise. The Spurs ceiling with him as one of their top players is capped at out of the playoffs. You should take what you can get for him now because he could just as well leave in UFA, and if he stays he may even stop being seen as high value for the Spurs as he is widely considered to be now. Like Derrick White, he is a good player, I am not hating on him, but Derrick wasn't what the Spurs needed and the Spurs ceiling with him was capped. When the Spurs saw an opportunity they grabbed it. They possibly are looking to do the same with Jakob and haven't seen a trade they like yet. It's possible a trade surfaces on draft night, which means the Spurs draft a center, which is more on point here. I am open to Jakob trades, I think he's valuable, but not irreplaceable and it's possible a version of the Spurs that is more compe ive has moved on from him, same as they moved on from Derrick.

[tim_duncan_fan]

^Right. Can't be scared to change things to get better just because you want to maintain a plateau that feels comfortable, but really isn't.

[objective]

People have talked about a Poeltl for 13&15 swap, but what about a deal around Poeltl +25 for something like PJ Washington and 15? I think that deal works trade wise after the season turns over for the bump in Washington's salary.

He's not great, he started less than half his games this past year but still played about 27 minutes a game. Kind of a tweener who's looking to get paid. Probably an easy starter at the 4 for San Antonio, a decent three point shooter but not a great player with stuff like PER.

But a Locked on Hornets podcast last month talked about I think this Twitter thread and other positive Twitter thread about his defense being liked by PJ. LoH seemed to be high on his defense as well. Not too many good videos on YouTube for game footage, but thousands of videos about him and woman related drama.

[objective]

PJ against the Spurs:

[SAGirl]

I think TD 21 has mentioned that trade before as one of the possibilities, while drafting Williams. ^ Thanks for the scouting. The trade sounds interesting.

PhantomDashCam watches a fair amount of Hornets so Id be interesting to see his opinion.

[KobesAchilles]

I always felt like the Hornets should trade their 13 & 15 picks for Ayton. Give him the max and ship out what’s his face. That guard who used to play for the Celtics. Man my memory sucks.

The Spurs are in an interesting spot bc we don’t need 3 more rookies on the team. I would argue that’s the last thing that we need. If we had 3 top 10 picks then sure you keep 3 rookies but that’s not the case. We are already super young and we will just be uncomfortably young. There will basically be zero basketball IQ on our team. I wonder what the Nets are going to do too. Bc Poeltl solves their problems as well. I don’t think Washington wants him. Poeltl is really only suited for a team like the Nets or Lakers or even the Clips but of the 3 only the Nets have any picks.

But ideally we don’t draft a center this year. We have no real need to and tbh we don’t have a good track record of developing centers who have no idea how to play the game and every center in this draft has no idea how to play the game. I’d rather develop 3 wings

[RC_Drunkford]

People have talked about a Poeltl for 13&15 swap, but what about a deal around Poeltl +25 for something like PJ Washington and 15? I think that deal works trade wise after the season turns over for the bump in Washington's salary.

He's not great, he started less than half his games this past year but still played about 27 minutes a game. Kind of a tweener who's looking to get paid. Probably an easy starter at the 4 for San Antonio, a decent three point shooter but not a great player with stuff like PER.

But a Locked on Hornets podcast last month talked about I think this Twitter thread and other positive Twitter thread about his defense being liked by PJ. LoH seemed to be high on his defense as well. Not too many good videos on YouTube for game footage, but thousands of videos about him and woman related drama.

I'm not really high on him either, but he'd obviously be the starting 4 from day 1 on the Spurs. Would be a decent trade if they can't get any better options at PF

[objective]

I think TD 21 has mentioned that trade before as one of the possibilities, while drafting Duren. ^ Thanks for the scouting. The trade sounds interesting.

PhantomDashCam watches a fair amount of Hornets so Id be interesting to see his opinion.

I'm sure people have posted it before, just slipped past me. Could be my proposed deal is an overpay. I'll have to check out the previous discussions

[tbdog]

The podcast scout I listened to was high on duren, putting him at 5. Not going 5, but rather the 5th best.

[rjv]

Wrong. He'll be almost 28 when his next contract kicks in and is a high floor/low ceiling type, who lacks versatility (not a vertical spacer, terrible free throw shooter, mostly a drop/up to the level p-n-r defender).

Williams is a similar archetype, only he can do the first two things and is 6 years younger. Doesn't mean he'll necessarily be as good or better, but I like his chances of at least being close and if they can get Washington Jr. as well, they'd at least have a credible stopgap four instead of reaching on a non shooter like Sochan who can't play alongside a rim runner.

note to self: people tend to ignore parenthetical content.

[SAGirl]

I always felt like the Hornets should trade their 13 & 15 picks for Ayton. Give him the max and ship out what’s his face. That guard who used to play for the Celtics. Man my memory sucks.

The Spurs are in an interesting spot bc we don’t need 3 more rookies on the team. I would argue that’s the last thing that we need. If we had 3 top 10 picks then sure you keep 3 rookies but that’s not the case. We are already super young and we will just be uncomfortably young. There will basically be zero basketball IQ on our team. I wonder what the Nets are going to do too. Bc Poeltl solves their problems as well. I don’t think Washington wants him. Poeltl is really only suited for a team like the Nets or Lakers or even the Clips but of the 3 only the Nets have any picks.

But ideally we don’t draft a center this year. We have no real need to and tbh we don’t have a good track record of developing centers who have no idea how to play the game and every center in this draft has no idea how to play the game. I’d rather develop 3 wings

The Spurs have recently been taking fliers/gambles on very low ceiling bigs is their problem. They spent a couple of years trying to develop Metu, even going so far as to give him guaranteed money when he was a very low 2nd round pick and that is not traditional. They obviously drafted Samanic and gave him 2 seasons before they couldn't stand his lack of development. They spent a couple of years developing Drew Eubanks before they gave him a regular NBA deal, and prioritized seeing what they really had in him over playing Young and others before shipping him out.

They signed an undrafted Landale to a guaranteed deal to see if they struck bargain bin gold. They signed Zach Collins coming off 2 years without playing and are trying to rehab his career to see if he can develop more still because he's still young and it could be argued he lost a couple of seasons of development to injury.

So I think assuming the Spurs are not spending resources on trying to develop a rotation big is false. They are not necessarily looking to replace Jakob, I'll grant you that, but they have tried and are trying to develop different unproven or questionable bigs. I'd argue they have spent a lot of resources on bigs with questionable and marginal talent, and that perhaps they should shop and spend resources on someone with a better projection. That's one of the reasons you pick up several tickets for the draft, to get better prospects.

Edit... to add, you didn't say they aren't spending resources on it, but that they don't have a good recod. Part of their bad record is bad prospects, low ceiling and budget or high risk projects.

[SAGirl]

The podcast scout I listened to was high on duren, putting him at 5. Not going 5, but rather the 5th best.

I have seen some draftniks junkies also rate him on the second tier of prospects going as high as 5 in terms of their projections because they think he has the potential to be an all star talent.

Sometimes I look at past drafts and reflect on how guys going later turn out to be better than the top picks. Sometimes it's not evident, but other times, its someone that has one perceived flaw that on hindsight shouldn't have let them fall as low as they did. Duren is that kind of a high floor/high ceiling project. No player is guaranteed to hit their high ceiling, but at least the high floor means you will end up with a player, a real rotation player, and I think he will be at least that. Then because of his youth, who knows what he is yet to add to his game? He could end up being better than someone like Chet... In 5 years from now everyone may wonder how Chet went above him for example. It's not consensus now, but it could be in hindsight. This person had Jabari Smith as tier 1, and then 4 guys in tier 2, and those players in tier 2 had all star potential. Chet, Banchero, Ivey, Duren were there.

It just made me think about Duren. He's also kept his workouts secret. If someone does like him a lot, it's possible he's not even available at 9. The referenced tweet, not anyone known or anything, but I do wish to give credit instead of stealing ideas from somebody.

[rjv]

Edit... to add, you didn't say they aren't spending resources on it, but that they don't have a good recod. Part of their bad record is bad prospects, low ceiling and budget or high risk projects.

to be fair, a lot of teams do this and i have no problem with the spurs doing so, unless it involves a valuable pick. taking a chance on eubanks and landale is no big deal but the luka gamble was costly.

[KingKev]

^ a big part of this is PATFO have had their heads up their own asses when it comes to the 4/5 position these last 5 years. Vassell, DDR and Keldon aren’t power forwards.

Eubanks and Landale aren’t NBA players.

Dewayne Dedmon, Baynes and Boban actually discovered a bit of a 3ball once they left.

So I’d argue we are horrid at managing the 4/5 the last 5 years.

[AFBlue]

I have seen some draftniks junkies also rate him on the second tier of prospects going as high as 5 in terms of their projections because they think he has the potential to be an all star talent.

Sometimes I look at past drafts and reflect on how guys going later turn out to be better than the top picks. Sometimes it's not evident, but other times, its someone that has one perceived flaw that on hindsight shouldn't have let them fall as low as they did. Duren is that kind of a high floor/high ceiling project. No player is guaranteed to hit their high ceiling, but at least the high floor means you will end up with a player, a real rotation player, and I think he will be at least that. Then because of his youth, who knows what he is yet to add to his game? He could end up being better than someone like Chet... In 5 years from now everyone may wonder how Chet went above him for example. It's not consensus now, but it could be in hindsight. This person had Jabari Smith as tier 1, and then 4 guys in tier 2, and those players in tier 2 had all star potential. Chet, Banchero, Ivey, Duren were there.

It just made me think about Duren. He's also kept his workouts secret. If someone does like him a lot, it's possible he's not even available at 9. The referenced tweet, not anyone known or anything, but I do wish to give credit instead of stealing ideas from somebody.

I like the assessment of Duren as high floor/high ceiling. Unfortunately for his floor, its value (rim running, athletic big) is diminished in today's NBA. That said, I think there's a decent likelihood he outperforms his floor and develops some semblance of an offensive game. Other than Sochan (similar prospect with better positional versatility), Duren seems like the best realistic get at #9.

[SAGirl]

Duren is rising in some mainstream mocks. I guess he's underrated no more. Perhaps not Spurs bound after all.

[John B]

Duren is rising in some mainstream mocks. I guess he's underrated no more. Perhaps not Spurs bound after all.

That would be great. But I doubt Keegan falls to 9. He’s the only one I’d consider passing on Davis (besides the the top 3 of course).

[AFBlue]

That's a prospect ranking, not a mock draft. I think he's being properly ranked as a Top-5 talent, but his position and team for are what's going to make him potentially available at #9 on draft night.

[SAGirl]

That's a prospect ranking, not a mock draft. I think he's being properly ranked as a Top-5 talent, but his position and team for are what's going to make him potentially available at #9 on draft night.

Thanks for that clarification. I missed it in a quick glance.

[JPB]

Edit... to add, you didn't say they aren't spending resources on it, but that they don't have a good recod. Part of their bad record is bad prospects, low ceiling and budget or high risk projects.

This, all the bigs spurs tried to develop these past few years weren't even close to be lottery material, most of them second rounders. We don't really have a clear track record of what they could do with a prospect like Duran or Sochan.

[SAGirl]

Enthralled by this small snippet of hustle plays from Duren/the bit about playing with a high motor.

I think I like Duren a lot now. I am even changing favorites, because honestly... he will be a good player.

[AFBlue]

Thanks for that clarification. I missed it in a quick glance.

Still may be gone, because the talent and upside warrant it.

[John B]

Again I would not be frustrated with Duren at 9. It’d be a pleasant change to be our big dunking than getting dunked on

[objective]

The podcast scout I listened to was high on duren, putting him at 5. Not going 5, but rather the 5th best.

I've burned through several podcasts, and players will be all over the map depending on who you listen to and when.

I listened to Game Theory, Ford's Big board but not Barlowe's yet because his speaking voice puts me to sleep, Draft Daq, Draft Deeper, No Ceilings, Upside Swings, Chucking Darts, Box and One, Tag the Roll, and on top of that several team oriented podcasts that have good draft coverage like Indy Cornrows or Locked on Hawks etc etc etc

Listen to enough of them and I usually only pick up interesting stats or things to look for when watching film, because they all have scouting issues I think.