Magic Johnson has AIDS!

[monosylab1k]

So who is the bigger threat to LA?

Utah, the team 1/2 a game ahead of us in the standings? The team that is 8-14 on the road against winning teams, compared to our 12-10? Who is more likely to steal a game at Staples?

Phoenix? A team that can get hot shooting-wise and win a series or two but doesn't have the defensive chops to beat the Lakers?

Denver? A team missing their coach and one of their key bigs? I'm curious who you think is a bigger threat to the Lakers.

The Zombie Sonics? A team where only Nick Collison has relevant playoff experience?

Portland? San Antonio? Who is the #1 challenger to LA?

Dallas is their biggest threat based on matchups. But you can't be a #1 challenger when you don't even make it far enough to take them on.

But I don't see it as an underwhelming failure if we lose to the Cavs, Lakers or Jazz this year.

Lakers or Cavs, no. Losing to Utah absolutely would make the season a failure.

[Findog]

Dallas is their biggest threat based on matchups. But you can't be a #1 challenger when you don't even make it far enough to take them on.

So we can give the Lakers quite the fight but would go down meekly to the other 6 teams?

Losing to Utah absolutely would make the season a failure.

I think Orlando, LA and Cleveland are the only teams in the league that could beat Utah w/o HCA. If Utah gets the two seed, we're not beating them in a second-round matchup.

[monosylab1k]

So what are you mad about then? On the one hand you want to punish and castigate them for not assembling a championship-winning roster, and then on the other hand you acknowledge that the biggest free agent targets are not coming here, for cir stances that are largely out of Cuban and Donnie's control. Just be happy that you have an owner that bleeds blue and green and spends plenty of that green to try and win a le. You're not owed a championship as a Mavs fan. You know that Cuban will not hesitate to pull the trigger when it comes to improving the roster, or take the hit to his wallet. What more can you ask for? And failing to trade for Baron Davis and Chris Kaman is not some unforgivable sin in my opinion.

I'm happy with what Cuban has tried to do. I just won't be blinded to the simple fact that this team isn't as good as advertised and they have serious problems. I don't see them winning a series in the playoffs, that's all I'm saying. We can get into why I don't see them winning a series, and why I think the Butler/Haywood trade has ultimately been a failure, but I'd rather not be crucified by all Mavs fans yet again for pointing out obvious flaws in Dirk's game and leadership ability.

[Findog]

I'm happy with what Cuban has tried to do. I just won't be blinded to the simple fact that this team isn't as good as advertised and they have serious problems. I don't see them winning a series in the playoffs, that's all I'm saying. We can get into why I don't see them winning a series, and why I think the Butler/Haywood trade has ultimately been a failure, but I'd rather not be crucified by all Mavs fans yet again for pointing out obvious flaws in Dirk's game and leadership ability.

We don't have to go into why you feel like Dirk is not capable of being the best player on a championship team, since he's never won one and will have that label around his neck until he does, but I have a hard time understanding how a guy with a good supporting cast around him and who gets out of the first round 70% of the time is doomed to fail this year.

I'd actually like to know your reasons for why they can't beat Portland, San Antonio, SloppySeconds, Phoenix and Denver, when they'd have HCA and are easily the best road team in the conference.

[Findog]

Dude, were going to knock Utah back down tonight.

Please do.

You just do your part and start winning games and hold that second seed. We'll take care of the Spurs in the first round and you guys take care of Portland.

That sounds good to me. I'm tired of those two pissants getting all this "team you don't want to play" pub and hype. Well you know who I wouldn't want to play in the playoffs? The Lakers and the Mavs.

[Findog]

Here is what winning teams do against each other:

LA Lakers: 26-18, 15-5 H, 11-13 R, 59% Overall, 75% H, 46% R
Dallas: 25-18, 13-8 H, 12-10 R, 58% Overall, 62% H, 54% R
Utah: 25-19, 17-5 H, 8-14 R, 57% Overall, 77% H, 36% R
Phoenix: 19-21, 12-8 H, 7-13 R, 48% Overall, 60% H, 35% R
Denver: 25-18, 17-4 H, 8-14 R, 58% Overall, 81% H, 36% R
Zombie Sonics: 19-23, 11-10 H, 8-13 R, 46% Overall, 52% H, 38% R
Portland: 21-23, 11-11 H, 10-12 R, 48% Overall, 50% H, 45% R
San Antonio: 19-23, 11-10 H, 8-13 R, 46% Overall, 52% H, 38% R
Memphis: 14-27, 9-14 H, 5-13 R, 34% Overall, 39% H, 28% R
Houston: 18-26, 11-12 H, 7-14 R, 41% Overall, 48% H, 33% R
Cleveland: 26-13, 16-3 H, 10-10 R, 67% Overall, 84% H, 50% R
Orlando: 25-15, 16-5 H, 9-10 R, 63% Overall, 76% H, 47% R
Boston: 20-19, 8-11 H, 12-8 R, 51% Overall, 42% H, 60% R
Atlanta: 22-17, 15-5 H, 7-12 R, 56% Overall, 75% H, 37% R
Milwaukee: 15-22, 11-7 H, 4-15 R, 41% Overall, 62% H, 21% R
Miami: 15-27, 8-14 H, 7-13 R, 36% Overall, 36% H, 35% R
Charlotte: 18-22, 13-6 H, 5-16 R, 45% Overall, 68% H, 24% R

[monosylab1k]

I'd actually like to know your reasons for why they can't beat Portland, San Antonio, SloppySeconds, Phoenix and Denver, when they'd have HCA and are easily the best road team in the conference.

Portland - Already owned us 3 times this season, if they win again next week they're officially the worst matchup for Dallas. You can argue all you want about how regular season doesn't mean much come playoff time, and I have two words for that: Golden State.

San Antonio - Best matchup for Dallas. Even still, they're playing their best basketball of the season right now and will only get better when Parker gets back. Jefferson finally looks like he might have a clue out there.

Oklahoma City - Kevin Durant is basketball Jesus, Jeff Green is the exact type of undersized athletic wing defender that's always given Dirk fits, Nenad Krstic of all people likes to take a hot all over Dallas every chance he gets, and there's no answer for Russell Westbrook unless Beaubois gets heavy minutes, and fat chance of that happening.

Phoenix - Peaking at the right time, no answer for Amare, no answer for Nash, Mavs are notoriously bad at leaving 3 point shooters open. If they go on a big run, we all know how quickly the Mavs like to pack it up and quit. Not a terrible matchup for the Mavs overall, but if Amare goes nuts this series won't go Dallas' way.

Denver - Unless Shawn Marion can repeat his performance for an entire series, Carmelo will get back on track. JR Smith will keep on skull ing Jet, Billups will more than likely own Kidd, and if George Karl comes back for the playoffs, that will be a huge emotional boost for a team that plays off their emotions more than any other team.

[Findog]

Portland - Already owned us 3 times this season, if they win again next week they're officially the worst matchup for Dallas. You can argue all you want about how regular season doesn't mean much come playoff time, and I have two words for that: Golden State.

They have yet to beat us in Dallas since the trade. Until that happens, I'm not worried about them. Who is going to guard Dirk? Their length and athleticism is going to be a problem. However, I'm not sweating that loss at the Rose Garden too much, because the Mavs did attack the basket and just couldn't get any calls, whereas Portland lives or dies with mid-range jumpshots, even moreso than we do. That's just not a recipe for playoff success. You can switch Butler onto Batum and live with that matchup and put Marion on Roy, and Kidd on Miller. There's so little separation between 2-8 that I can do an opposing argument as to why Dallas has a good chance to beat those teams.

San Antonio - Best matchup for Dallas. Even still, they're playing their best basketball of the season right now and will only get better when Parker gets back. Jefferson finally looks like he might have a clue out there.

Jefferson is playing his best ball with Parker out. When he comes back, Jefferson will go back to being a spot-up shooter and the fourth option. Plus they're integrating him back into the lineup when they've been rolling without him.

Oklahoma City - Kevin Durant is basketball Jesus,

and a guy who historically is very mortal against us

Jeff Green is the exact type of undersized athletic wing defender that's always given Dirk fits,

I don't recall Dirk historically struggling against the Zombies

there's no answer for Russell Westbrook unless Beaubois gets heavy minutes, and fat chance of that happening.

So I guess you haven't noticed that lately Roddy is getting JJB's minutes? Of all our potential first-round opponents, I want these guys. There are exceptions (Dallas over Utah in 2001), but I want the very young team that has no playoff experience. I've watched quite a bit of them recently and they are just not that good at closing games against good teams.

Phoenix - Peaking at the right time, no answer for Amare, no answer for Nash,

He's sucked against us since we traded for Kidd. I agree that Amare is going to beast against us, but I don't recall them ever having answers for Dirk. The game in Dallas after the trade, Amare was a beast, but they were down by 20 at one point and never really threatened. Kidd is quite adept at containing Nash.

Mavs are notoriously bad at leaving 3 point shooters open. If they go on a big run, we all know how quickly the Mavs like to pack it up and quit. Not a terrible matchup for the Mavs overall, but if Amare goes nuts this series won't go Dallas' way.

They're going to need Nash to have a big series too, and he has been very mortal against us since the Kidd trade.

Denver - Unless Shawn Marion can repeat his performance for an entire series, Carmelo will get back on track. JR Smith will keep on skull ing Jet, Billups will more than likely own Kidd, and if George Karl comes back for the playoffs, that will be a huge emotional boost for a team that plays off their emotions more than any other team.

I tend to agree with this, but I like Marion's ability to force Carmelo into inefficient scoring nights. He's playing his best ball of the season right now and he's owned Melo two out of three times this year.

[ezzizle]

Dwight Howard is such a great player - it's not just the plays he makes, but the fact that no Maverick even dares to try and take a shot within 10 feet of the rim when he's in the game.

cept jj barea lawl

[Findog]

Little #'s crunching comparing Dallas and Utah

This is what they've done against teams + .500:

Dallas: 21-15, PD - 1.13
Utah: 21-17, PD + 1.62

If you throw out each team's worst two performances (Dallas losing by 36 @ Denver and 35 @ LA, and Utah losing by 24 @ LA and 19 @ Boston):

Dallas 21-13, PD + 0.85
Utah 21-15, PD + 2.94

Home:

Dallas 11-7, PD + 0.33
Utah 14-4, PD + 6.83

Road:

Dallas 10-8, PD - 2.61
Utah 7-13, PD - 3.25