It is my opinion that the Spurs will be better. I am backing up that opinion with the following: Tiago Splitter, while not a "Pau level player", IS a legit big that the Spurs did not have last season.
I feel that, even at the lowest of expectations that he will provide a significant presence to the frontline and take a good amount of pressure off of Duncan. Also, that Duncan, Ginobili and Parker will be in good health to start the season should be a huge factor. If the Spurs can get off to a good start, the rest of the season should not be the uphill struggle it was last season. Parker is also in a contract year and I expect a resemblance to his All-Star form. I also expect Blair, Hill and Jefferson to improve. There is no reason to think that they will not. I expect Bonner to play less and be used, mostly, in situational/match-up manner. I expect less small ball.
Most importantly, there are no "wily veterans" like Bogans/Finley/Mason on the squad for Pop to fall back on when things get rough. He will be forced to go to Anderson/Gee/Neal who can only get better with real PT. I mean, that was the bone of contention with Pop's at ude toward Hairston and Mahinmi last year, right?