The Most Dunked On Big Man In NBA History

[Killakobe81]

Duncan has also consistently been the most effective shot blocker in the game (and perhaps one of the very greatest ever in that regard) as the Spurs get possession much of the time when he blocks the ball unlike Howard and other blockers. As Bill Russell said if you block it and don't get possession that is no good. From a well done article based on MIT research:

Tim Duncan has had the best season in history when it came down to value/block with 1.12, meaning he saved 1.12 points with every block and Dwight Howard ended up with the worst season in terms of value/block with with .53 (both came during the 2008 season).http://nbaplaybook.com/2010/03/06/th...-blocked-shot/

The Value Of A Blocked Shot
March 6th, 2010 Sebastian Pruiti Leave a comment Go to comments
I am here at MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and looking through the number of great papers one of them caught my eye. It was called “The Value of a Blocked Shot in the NBA: From Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan” written by John Huizinga, (A professor of business at the University of Chicago) who has been Yao Ming’s NBPA registered agent since Yao’s inaugural season, representing Yao in his dealings with the Houston Rockets, as well as with major endorsement partners.

Data

Before getting into the data and what it tells us, it was important for us to learn how the data was gained. Mr. Huizinga developed a database called Chances. The database uses data provided by STATS, LLC. and allowed everyone to know the context of the action before the block. The sample of the data used in the presentation was players with over 100 blocks over the last 7 years (this is when the data has become available). In total, this ended up being 170 player-seasons.

Type Of Block

Is blocking a lay-up more valuable than blocking a jump-shot? Mr. Huizinga’s data says yes. In his presentation, he said that it all comes down to expected value. A jumper has an expected point value of 1.04 while a lay-up has an expected point value of 1.54. Looking at it this way, Brendon Haywood, who many people is a very good defender (me included) actually is a less valuable shot blocker than Jermaine O’Neal.

Haywood gets 69% of his blocks on jumpers, meaning he only blocks 31% of the more valuable lay-ups. On the other end of the spectrum, 91% of Jermaine O’Neal’s blocks were on lay-up attempts, while only 9% of his blocks were the less-valuable jump shots.

“Russells”

Many people who have seen Bill Russell play (or have seen highlights) know that Bill Russell was remembered for blocking shots for his teammates, starting a fast break (called by Bill Simmons as “Russells”. Mr. Huizinga showed that this doesn’t really happen in the NBA anymore. There have only been 7 players (in the 7 season where the data was tracked) who ac ulated more than 20 “Russells” in a season.

Preblock Situation

One of the most important things to take away from Mr. Huizinga’s presentation is expected value of the preblock situation. Or in otherwords, what happened right before the block took place. Naturally, a block coming off of a live-turnover situation on a lay-up (think a LeBron chasedown) is going to be more valuable than a block coming off of a deadball situation. Again, this comes down to expected point value. The expected point value of a live-turnover situation is higher than a deadball situation because coming off of a live-ball turnover, the defense doesn’t have a chance to get back.

The best shot blocker in the NBA when it comes down to this situation ends up being Andrei Kirilenko, as 16% of his blocks come against this shot type. The worst ends up being Greg Ostertag. This makes sense considering that Ostertag isn’t really known for his footspeed.

Putting It All Together

So whose blocked shots are the most valuable? Mr. Huizinga closed the presentation by going over what he calls “Block Value.” To determine block value, he used the formula Points Saved + Points Created where Points Saved equals the effect of a Block on Opponents Expected Points during this possession and Points Created equals the effect of a Block on Own Team’s Expected Points During the next possession.

Using this formula, we found out who had the best season since the data started being collected (2002-03) in terms of overall block value. It ended up being Theo Ratliff during his 2003 season. Ratliff ac ulated a block value of 300 (287 coming from points prevented while 13 came from points created), which when transformed into wins ends up being right around 5.

Interesting Numbers

Just thought it would be interesting to include some numbers towards the end of Mr. Huizinga’s presentation, showing how number of blocks can’t really be used when determining who is the best “shot blocker.”

2003 season

Stromile Swift | 119 blocks with a block value of 74
Rasho Nesterovic | 117 blocks with a block value of 124
So why was Mr. Huizinga’s paper called From “…Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan?” Well as he explained, through a series of charts, Tim Duncan has had the best season in history when it came down to value/block with 1.12, meaning he saved 1.12 points with every block and Dwight Howard ended up with the worst season in terms of value/block with with .53 (both came during the 2008 season).

The Value Of A Blocked Shot
March 6th, 2010 Sebastian Pruiti Leave a comment Go to comments
I am here at MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and looking through the number of great papers one of them caught my eye. It was called “The Value of a Blocked Shot in the NBA: From Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan” written by John Huizinga, (A professor of business at the University of Chicago) who has been Yao Ming’s NBPA registered agent since Yao’s inaugural season, representing Yao in his dealings with the Houston Rockets, as well as with major endorsement partners.

Data

Before getting into the data and what it tells us, it was important for us to learn how the data was gained. Mr. Huizinga developed a database called Chances. The database uses data provided by STATS, LLC. and allowed everyone to know the context of the action before the block. The sample of the data used in the presentation was players with over 100 blocks over the last 7 years (this is when the data has become available). In total, this ended up being 170 player-seasons.

Type Of Block

Is blocking a lay-up more valuable than blocking a jump-shot? Mr. Huizinga’s data says yes. In his presentation, he said that it all comes down to expected value. A jumper has an expected point value of 1.04 while a lay-up has an expected point value of 1.54. Looking at it this way, Brendon Haywood, who many people is a very good defender (me included) actually is a less valuable shot blocker than Jermaine O’Neal.

Haywood gets 69% of his blocks on jumpers, meaning he only blocks 31% of the more valuable lay-ups. On the other end of the spectrum, 91% of Jermaine O’Neal’s blocks were on lay-up attempts, while only 9% of his blocks were the less-valuable jump shots.

“Russells”

Many people who have seen Bill Russell play (or have seen highlights) know that Bill Russell was remembered for blocking shots for his teammates, starting a fast break (called by Bill Simmons as “Russells”. Mr. Huizinga showed that this doesn’t really happen in the NBA anymore. There have only been 7 players (in the 7 season where the data was tracked) who ac ulated more than 20 “Russells” in a season.

Preblock Situation

One of the most important things to take away from Mr. Huizinga’s presentation is expected value of the preblock situation. Or in otherwords, what happened right before the block took place. Naturally, a block coming off of a live-turnover situation on a lay-up (think a LeBron chasedown) is going to be more valuable than a block coming off of a deadball situation. Again, this comes down to expected point value. The expected point value of a live-turnover situation is higher than a deadball situation because coming off of a live-ball turnover, the defense doesn’t have a chance to get back.

The best shot blocker in the NBA when it comes down to this situation ends up being Andrei Kirilenko, as 16% of his blocks come against this shot type. The worst ends up being Greg Ostertag. This makes sense considering that Ostertag isn’t really known for his footspeed.

Putting It All Together

So whose blocked shots are the most valuable? Mr. Huizinga closed the presentation by going over what he calls “Block Value.” To determine block value, he used the formula Points Saved + Points Created where Points Saved equals the effect of a Block on Opponents Expected Points during this possession and Points Created equals the effect of a Block on Own Team’s Expected Points During the next possession.

Using this formula, we found out who had the best season since the data started being collected (2002-03) in terms of overall block value. It ended up being Theo Ratliff during his 2003 season. Ratliff ac ulated a block value of 300 (287 coming from points prevented while 13 came from points created), which when transformed into wins ends up being right around 5.

Interesting Numbers

Just thought it would be interesting to include some numbers towards the end of Mr. Huizinga’s presentation, showing how number of blocks can’t really be used when determining who is the best “shot blocker.”

2003 season

Stromile Swift | 119 blocks with a block value of 74
Rasho Nesterovic | 117 blocks with a block value of 124
So why was Mr. Huizinga’s paper called From “…Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan?” Well as he explained, through a series of charts, Tim Duncan has had the best season in history when it came down to value/block with 1.12, meaning he saved 1.12 points with every block and Dwight Howard ended up with the worst season in terms of value/block with with .53 (both came during the 2008 season).

Pretty interesting (parts I read) not a stat geek ...but I agree with what I saw. Duncan's defense in 2003 was amazing and was big reason why the won that year (IIRC)

I have no dispute with Duncan's rep as an ALL NBA defender ...But I used to be a pretty good shotblocker myself in high school even though Im just over 6 ft 1 ...

SOMETIMES the Dwight Howard style block is about the message it sends ...not just about the end result. Just like a dunk, sometimes a block is about exerting your will and taking away the opponents. A dunk and a layup = 2 points but the dunk energizes the player, the crowd and your team. A block in to the third row, the next court or the bleachers does the same. No one likes to get embarrased so it CAN have the opposite effect on a weak minded player or team.

OF COURSE I would rather have the Duncan/Russell style block 8 out of 10 times ...but once a game or depending on the situation ...give me the swat or give me the ferocious dunk.

BTW I think that is why TD is not as popular with the general fan who prefers KG or Dwight. Instead of the dunk he lays it up soft, and instead of the SWAT he goes for the controlled block. He is better than both guys... but people gravitate to the other, flashier "style" ...

Just some thoughts ...because I love blocks ...

Proceed with the trolling and the extolling of duncan's virtues ...

[Killakobe81]

One more thought ...I think duncan is so effective in this area despite not being a great leaper ... because of his demeanor. People are not intimidated by duncan so they try to take shots or dunks on Tim that they would never try on KG, Dwight, shaq etc. then he surprises them with his great timing and bbball smarts ....

[DMC]

[Koolaid_Man]

Kobe had no respect for Duncan in the paint...NONE ....

[Koolaid_Man]

Kobe had no respect for Duncan in the paint...NONE ....

since it's a slow day...ahhh let me bump a classic....

[hater]

Shawn mother ing Bradley and it's not even close

[Seventyniner]

One more thought ...I think duncan is so effective in this area despite not being a great leaper ... because of his demeanor. People are not intimidated by duncan so they try to take shots or dunks on Tim that they would never try on KG, Dwight, shaq etc. then he surprises them with his great timing and bbball smarts ....

A prophetic post imo. At the Sloan conference, Kirk Goldsberry produced a paper he refers to in this article: http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...he-golden-gate

In that paper, he ranks interior defenders both by the FG% they allow when they are the primary defender as well as how often offensive players even attempt shots against them; both stats are for shots near the basket, so preventing attempts from that high-percentage area is pretty valuable.

Tim Duncan is averaging at or near his career high in blocks per 36 minutes, and he himself has said that players just come at him more often now, though he was never a big leaper for blocks and is therefore still pretty effective.

[Koolaid_Man]

Classic bump

[Arnold Toht]

this was inspired by my on going war with Luva...

I tried being as fair, unbiased, and objective about this as I possibly could...but I keep defaulting to one person...now we don't have evidence of this when it comes to Wilt, Bill, Kareem, Hakeem, Robinson to a degree, Shaq, Garnett, Gasol, Mikan, etc etc etc....but the one person we have actual prime evidence against is Tim Duncan...who would you say it is...

and I think Kobe actually contributes to at least 50% of this argument for Duncan because Duncan is the person that Kobe has dunked on the most in his career. I dunno what the Mamba has against Timmy but whatever it is...it's personal...

Here's my empirical evidence...there should be close to 50 dunks below...but many more out there...if you can provide further proof I'm all ears...












Sickest Evidence:

Wow.

[Koolaid_Man]

this is bumped for your dumb ass Xellos

[xellos88330]

this is bumped for your dumb ass Xellos

Only proving my point even further that Duncan has to defend every position in basketball. I see every single position attacking Duncan in the paint. Why doesn't Kobe get posterized often? Simple... he just gives up and lets the bigs do the dirty work.

[Koolaid_Man]

Only proving my point even further that Duncan has to defend every position in basketball. I see every single position attacking Duncan in the paint. Why doesn't Kobe get posterized often? Simple... he just gives up and lets the bigs do the dirty work.

Duncan ain't defending....he's getting bukkaked...defending is being successful in stoping those dunks... s don't respect his ass is what you see

[xellos88330]

Duncan ain't defending....he's getting bukkaked...defending is being successful in stoping those dunks... s don't respect his ass is what you see

While Kobe was resting an entire season....

[Sean Cagney]

Man Bites Dog!
Lakers Fans Too Dumb to Google!

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Who_has_be...ost_in_the_NBA

Shawn Bradley

I was going to say him off the bat, thats too easy.

[Brunodf]

Most blocks in NBA history though

[spurraider21]

Most blocks in NBA history though

only in postseason

[Brunodf]

only in postseason

Only time that really matters

[spurraider21]

Only time that really matters

its still misleading to say he's the all-time blocks leader. those stats typically refer to regular season unless indicated otherwise

[SpurSwag]

its still misleading to say he's the all-time blocks leader. those stats typically refer to regular season unless indicated otherwise

On this note, I was thinking the other day about why your career points, let's say, isn't all of the points you have scored in the regular season combined with those scored in the playoffs. It would reward players for continuously making the playoffs and make the resume of a Tim Duncan greatly outshine that of a Kevin Garnett.