Chance of game 6 victory?

[Sean Cagney]

Spurs have a long shot here, I would say maybe 30%, but if their shots fall and Memphis is off I see them pulling it off and going to 7 games!

[ElNono]

Memphis hasn't had a problem with playing that way, neither should the Spurs.
I would prefer that Silver & Black go down fighting Alamo style than choose the soft as Charmin White Flag route. They can't call every foul. But it starts with personnel. If Bonner's turnstile defense is in the game for more than 15 minutes, that white flag is being raised.
The Spurs need to go hard and
They do that and then we can pull this series even. The Spurs have forced Game 7's being down 3-1. It's high time they won one.

The difference is that the Griz are smart as far as where they play tough... just play the tape and watch Battier while he's in there... he's pushing and shoving everybody off the ball... They're also very aggressive fighting the boxouts for offensive rebounds (again, without the ball).

We instead push and shove the guy with the ball once we realize we can't stop him from scoring.

We tried to play our style of tough starting the 3rd quarter of Game 4, fouling instead of allowing a layup. And it ended up in a 14-0 run all from the FT line.

You also need to remember that Pop wants this team not to foul. That's been the philosophy all season long, and it's just difficult to change the mentality for just one game.

The game will have to be won playing hard, the brand of defense they tried to play in the OT, but for a much longer time (hard to do when TD can't play over 30-something minutes), and making shots... a lot of shots.

[Isitjustme?]

20%

[TD 21]

For me this has been a 50/50 series; in terms of all the 50/50 balls (A loose ball contested by a player from each team, where neither is considered favorite to reach the ball first). Pretty much the entire series, the Grizzlies have gotten to these "50/50" balls, whether that be rebounds, loose balls, baskets where the ball seems to touch every part of the rim before falling in, etc.

If the Spurs can limit the Grizzlies to even half of those 50/50s, the Spurs chances of a Game 6 victory will increase exponentially.

Jefferson had at least two chances yesterday to dive on the floor for loose balls (both should have been his), yet he hesitated, then went down meekly, while Conley threw himself on the ball and secured both. If Jefferson secures both of those balls, that's two more possessions and maybe it doesn't take all it took at the end to win.

With the season on the line, the Spurs choose to go with three guards, two of which were physically over matched in their match-ups, over Jefferson. On offense, Hill is basically exclusively a spot up shooter when playing with Parker and Ginobili. Jefferson has been the better three point shooter all season AND physically, unlike Hill, he's capable of matching up with Young and Battier. Yet despite that and the fact that Young was killing them in the fourth, they still stuck with Hill over him. That shows you how little confidence they have in Jefferson. He should be taking that personally.

[NewJerSpur]

Hopefully by halftime the score is something like 52-40 Spurs.....will need Hill to step up and stay agressive and DECISIVE, need Dice to stop shooting outside of his range and continue to battle and crash the boards, Neal to bail us out with some clutch (Mike Conley-esque) jumpers and for TP to continue to rediscover his midrange jumper.

As silly as this may sound, I think if anything puts pressure on a group of youngsters like Memphis despite how poised they've been to-date is seeing the other NBA teams closing out around them.....might not even be so much pressure as much as it is a feeling of angst in that they may want to rush to the 2nd round especially after losing in the way that they did; they may be in a hurry up to put the past behind them and move on like the rest of their peers leading their respective series. Just a thought......please no 3rd quarter TO-fest, please.

[objective]

Spurs chances go up as Bonner and Jefferson's minutes go down.

That's basically the key to the game. Sure, they can win with those two playing. They won games 2 and 5 while those two played about 53 minutes combined in each game.

The more Splitter, the better. Don't believe this nonsense that Splitter and Duncan can't play together. The Spurs are better with their better players playing, and that's Splitter.

A perfect world would have a 3-big rotation of TD, McDyess and Splitter with Blair filling in spot minutes.

And re: Jefferson, any minutes he doesn't play are positives. He might hit a three, or get some free throws, but he is just not bringing enough to the table to warrant his minutes. If that means more Hill, or Neal, or even Danny Green or fat Anderson, so be it.

[DirkISaCocLuvinPuSSy]

GRIZZ DAWN ED UP, all i gotta say.

[Yorae]

uhmm is sam young really this good?

[Doctor J]

Mavericks pulled off the dramatic G5 win vs GSW in 2007 to pull to 2-3...then lost by 25 in G6.

I see the same happening here.

Spurs are not Mavs.

Years after years, they have done it, and they just know what it takes to get out of this kind of situation. That is why they won 4 rings.

[Rummpd]

Spurs taking this to Sunday.....

[admiralsnackbar]

I'd love to say we got this, but I'd be (pleasantly) surprised if we were able to take it to gm 7.

As long as the Griz keep chasing us off the 3 and forcing us down to their bigs, we'll be without our golden goose of outside shooting. I'd say better ball-movement would help, but Mayo and Allen have been great at covering the passing lanes, so really we're living and dying by our slashers having enough success to start collapsing the Memphis defense.

If Tony, Hill, and Ginobili can have a great first half slashing, that would hopefully set the stage for a sustainable 2nd half with a more diversified offense featuring outside shooters. Unfortunately all 3 players have played below their potential all series for their own reasons.

[Danny.Zhu]

45%

[ManuTastic]

I'm gonna go with 53%. So far this series, Memphis has gotten every damn bounce and lucky roll on every shot, and we've gotten almost none. I'd like to see a few of their short shots rim out.