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  1. #101
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    My own own personal feeling is that our recent bubbles weren’t much different than pyramid scams and lotteries; they’re the handiwork of an essentially regressive and deeply cynical political organization that systematically hoovers up taxes and investment money mainly from middle-class suckers, where it eventually gets eaten in short-term cashouts and mostly blown on sports cars and tropical vacations and eye jobs for the trophy wives of Wall Street executives. Crackonomics: take literally all the spare money from four square city blocks and turn it into one tricked-out Escalade.

    For me the basic dynamic of the mortgage bubble is some Ivy League wad hawking a billion dollars of securitized subprime mortgages to a pension fund, and then Hobie-sailing off into the sunset with a bonus after they all blow up. Of course my seeing it that way might have a lot to do with my own personal psychological prejudices, and I get that some other person with different hangups might choose to focus on Barney Frank deciding to “roll the dice on home ownership” with the GSEs.


    But what I don’t see is how anybody can say that all of this happened because Fannie and Freddie rigged the game to get Mexicans in homes, and then the banks and the ratings agencies just reacted organically to the corrupted market and helped the bubble along through no fault of their own. That’s just another (albeit more convincing) version of the early attempt to pin the disaster on the Community Reinvestment Act, which in turn is just another way of playing the red-blue blame game, which in turn is missing the point.


    This GSE story is a big one, but if it gets used as a path back to a “The Market Reacted Rationally” version of history, we’re screwed. It has to be looked at as an important part of a diabolical whole, a symbiotic scheme in which the banks and the state were irreversibly intertwined in an enterprise that on both sides was never about market economics, but crime. Because otherwise… the diversionary notion that one side or the other is wholly to blame is part of what makes the whole scam possible.


    p.s. Just to get this out of the way, I love Zero Hedge, and Marla Singer has been really nice to me personally. I just don’t completely agree with this particular thing. I don’t see any reason why focusing blame on the banks and the ratings agencies and AIG was “fundamentally flawed,” because, well, , they were to blame. The fact that Fannie and Freddie now get to jump in the pigpen with them doesn’t change that for me.


    I think in the end what we’re going to find is that all the relevant actors had their own motivations for getting involved in the bubble. Two and now three presidential administrations let the Fed overheat the economy for political reasons that should be obvious. Alan Greenspan, , he did it because he loves seeing himself on magazine covers and wanted to keep getting invited to the right Manhattan parties. There were congressmen that converted the expansion of cheap credit into low-income votes. The bankers and lenders went along because the system of compensation on Wall Street is ed and rewards short-term thinking while ignoring long-term consequences.


    To me all of these people were equally guilty of making bad decisions to benefit themselves in the here and now at the expense of the whole in the future. When it comes to bubbles, It Takes a Village, and blaming the whole mess on the “socialist” aims of a pair of government agencies seems off base — particularly since the Randian protocapitalists running the banks benefited every bit as much from this socialism as actual homeowners, and perhaps even more, when one considers that homeowners get foreclosed upon, while bonuses are forever.
    http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show....php?p=3968989

  2. #102
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Okay, so how much of it is bad? Bad, as in underwriting bad/toxic debt not, bad as in I don't like CDSs so they're bad.
    It is impossible to tell how much is bad. They are bets, only you don't have to have to hold a lot to lay off bad bets.

    There are no guidelines to say how much of each dollar given to the issuer has to be set aside in case of default.

    Given that the amount of issued CDS' has fallen off markedly, I would say people are being a LOT more hesitant to buy/sell them. Probably a good thing, from a system stability standpoint.

    Here's a fun thought:

    Let's say you are a large company. You know you are in trouble.

    You form a subsidiary and a bunch of layered s s. At the end of it, you give juuuusst enough cash to purchase some CDS' on your own parent's bonds.

    Then you default and go into bankruptcy, then have your itty bitty subsidiary cash out.

    Bam. You have now turned your liabilities into assets.


    I would hope this would be illegal. The fact that CDS' make it possible to think about, should be of concern to people who think capitalism is a good idea.

  3. #103
    I don't really care... Yonivore's Avatar
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    It is impossible to tell how much is bad. They are bets, only you don't have to have to hold a lot to lay off bad bets.

    There are no guidelines to say how much of each dollar given to the issuer has to be set aside in case of default.

    Given that the amount of issued CDS' has fallen off markedly, I would say people are being a LOT more hesitant to buy/sell them. Probably a good thing, from a system stability standpoint.

    Here's a fun thought:

    Let's say you are a large company. You know you are in trouble.

    You form a subsidiary and a bunch of layered s s. At the end of it, you give juuuusst enough cash to purchase some CDS' on your own parent's bonds.

    Then you default and go into bankruptcy, then have your itty bitty subsidiary cash out.

    Bam. You have now turned your liabilities into assets.


    I would hope this would be illegal. The fact that CDS' make it possible to think about, should be of concern to people who think capitalism is a good idea.
    All that to say, you don't know? Then why are CDS's such a bad thing? Because you're told they are? And, if you can't relate the quan y of debt at risk in CDS's to the toxic debts that built up in the mortgage crisis, why all the caterwauling?

  4. #104
    Believe.
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    You don't understand the amount related to toxic debt is irrelevant because the largest firms that wrote all of these were going down. When AIG failed it wasn't just failing on its CDS written on toxic debt. It was failing on all of them. Confidence in the entire system went through the floor.

    Why do you think the amount of CDS outstanding debt has been falling fairly fast since the crisis?

    Of course all of the CDS's won't be defaulted on. Just like not all sub prime loans will be defaulted on. Are you claiming 1 trillion in defaulted loans, Yoni? Thats not the point. When you're heavily leveraged on an investment vehicle you don't go "Oh, well I'll get 80 cents on the dollar so ITS OK".
    You can explain it to him all day but his sources that he has decided to trust cherry pick and view in a vacuum. I have gottent ot the point where i do not even try to reason with them. I just ridicule.

    A stupid man's report of what a clever man says can never be accurate, because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand.

  5. #105
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    Another angle showing Yoni's horribly wrong, again:

    Bank of America Deathwatch: Moves Risky Derivatives from Holding Company to Taxpayer-Backstopped Depository

    Bank of America’s holding company — the parent of both the retail bank and the Merrill Lynch securities unit — held almost $75 trillion of derivatives at the end of June, according to data compiled by the OCC. About $53 trillion, or 71 percent, were within Bank of America NA, according to the data, which represent the notional values of the trades.

    That compares with JPMorgan’s deposit-taking en y, JPMorgan Chase Bank NA, which contained 99 percent of the New York-based firm’s $79 trillion of notional derivatives, the OCC data show.

    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/...+capitalism%29

    ===========

    derivatives only for BoA.

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