You would think they have to get rid of RJ in order to bring in Caron, but unless RJ is gone via trade I just don't see the Spurs using the amnesty on RJ and spending money on anyone (at least at the MLE level). That would essentially be paying whomever that is 15M dollars.
this. everyone talks about them trying to find a replacment to use amnesty on RJ. only logic reason is that they have some optional RJ trades and have confidence they will go through.
Spurs are not the lakers people. cant afford to pay an extra 10 mil for no reason.
The Spurs will not eat $30M in salary. Granted that this is not net of the luxury tax savings but I'd be stunned if they use the amnesty on RJ. How much in luxury tax saved is it, 3 or 4 mil? RJ will be traded for another bad contract, the question is who.
In theory, if they amnesty RJ and stay under the LT, they would save about 4M in LT payments and also receive about 3M (could be different, just used for purpose to illustrate point), so that would be a net 7M gain. However, if they amnesty RJ and use the MLE (like people are saying), they will likely be over the LT line again which is why I see it as unlikely.
A move like this would indicate to me that the Spurs might have eyes on a defensive big only. Since they can't take the scoring pressure off of Tim with a big they are going after a more offensive sf. Also for the Spurs to spend more money I see them not gaining money and possibly saving money in the trade. The only player that fits all the criteria IMO is Anderson Varejao.
Rj+Blair+2nd round pick
for
A.Varejao+scrub
So you would like a sf who can post up, shoot 3's, come off curls and score, etc...? Basically a all-star caliber player. That kind of player, short of a miracle, would be pretty much impossible for the Spurs to land.
Father time is the bigeest culprit. Giving were the Spurs usually draft, and their inability to land marquee free agents, I'm not surprised at where this team is defensively. They have tried, in the past, to address their defensive deficiancies thru the draft(Mahimni, Hill,etc...), with limited success. This past draft shows that their still trying to improve their defense with the drafting of Leonard and Joseph. Going forward, the only way the Spurs can improve their defense is thru a trade of some kind, along with a free agent sigining or two.
im guessing rj is about to be traded or else this is stupid.
still dont see why hed pick us over the bulls.
Spurs current payroll is at $75.4 million and would drop to $66.2 million if they use the amnesty clause on RJ and even at $63.6 million if Dice is retiring and his contract is not used in a trade
The tax is at $70 million so they could use the MLE or part of the MLE and not be in the LT
Last edited by eric365; 12-03-2011 at 03:16 PM.
If they amnesty RJ, and use the full MLE they would be at around 69M. If you add in Kawhi's salary which is guaranteed that puts them over the 70M LT line. Is it possible to be under the LT if they amnesty RJ and use the full MLE, yes, just not likely.
Even in your scenario where they are at 66.2M, if they use the full MLE (5M) that already puts them over the LT before you add in Kawhi or anyone else.
I think there are two points that might make an RJ amnesty financially feasible, even if it's signing a SF for the MLE.
Firstly, the bidding for RJ could save money, with another team paying part of his salary. Say a team bids 3 years, 15 million for him. RJ isn't a fit here, but still has talent, so it might be reasonable. That saves us 15 million over 3 years, tax savings this year(~4 million with a $5million MLE), plus improves flexibilty for moves in 2012/2013 for rebuilding(Whether that's signing free agents or taking on a ty contract to get a good young player.) If the MLE contract is for 3 years, the total cost is 15.7 million, so waiving RJ could save us money, as this is less than combined savings from luxury tax savings and the other teams payments. It's a bit financially risky, but the key point is that if RJ would be paid more in the auction than we pay someone we want to sign, we can save money.
Secondly, the stretch rule means that the payments to RJ are spread over (Remaining Contract yearsx2+1), ie the amount we have to pay RJ is spread over 7 years, not 3, ,lowering the NPV of the payments by ~1million.
I would hope, from a contending POV that it's a trade to try and send TD out a Winner, but there are scenarios under which the amnesty could be used.
Kawhi salary will be between 1.2M and 1.8M depending of the negociation with the spurs.
Until 1.4M the spurs are under the LT line even using the full MLE if RJ and Dice are not coming back
But the MLE would not be enough to fill all the holes of the roster
IMO Spurs should :
- Amnesty on RJ
- Use 1.5M on Kawhi
- Use 2.3M of their MLE or whatever is left under the LT line on a backup PG and/or a vet SF
- Trade the Dice expiring contract and other assets (picks, Blair or Splitter) for a defensive big
Spurs salary situation for this year:
First, some reasonable assumptions:
- Dice will retire and Spurs will give him the guaranteed part of his contract.
- Leonard and Jospeh will get 100% of the rookie scale.
- Blair and Neal will be kept.
- I'm' not counting Green and Butler because their contract are non guaranteed and both could be waived.
Players under contract:
Duncan: $21.16M
Ginobili: $12.98M
Parker: $12.5M
Jefferson: $9.28M
Splitter: $3.67M
Bonner: $3.37M
McDyess*: $2.64M
Leonard: $1.44M
Anderson: $1.4M
Blair: $0.99M
Joseph: $0.86M
Neal: $0.85M (against the tax)
For a total of $71.14M for 11 players.
The luxury tax should be of $70.31M. Spurs are $0.83m above it and they still must add between 2 and 4 players.
So, some conclusions:
- If Spurs don't use the amnesty clause or don't do a trade, they will be at least $2.5M above the tax.
- If Spurs use the amnesty clause on Dice, they will be able to go just under the tax by taking the cheap road. They can also spend almost the full MLE on a player and pay some tax.
- If Spurs use the amnesty clause on RJ, they can spend the full MLE and stay below the tax.
Bill Simmons has the Spurs payroll at 75.4M :
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-nba-christmas
Bruno, do you know why you don't have as much ? Even with Dice at 5.2M it doesnt match
Simmons has maybe Butler and Green salaries included which add $1.7M. He can also have rookies getting 120% of the rookie scale which add $0.45M.
They should be interested in Nene more than Butler tbh
So based off of this and other posts they can save 4 mil in tax penalty and gain 3 mil it tax reward. It means a 23 mil loss on RJ for 3 years. Caron signed for 5 mil would mean a cost of 12.4 mil per year to switch RJ with Caron. Caron was paid 10.5 mil last year.
Also, going from a contract that pay 10 mil to 5 mil helps keep us under the tax threshold for the next two years. The Spurs could rationalize this to a cash flow exchange of 7 mil per year, rather than the one time savings. In this scenario RJ would cause a loss of 9 mil over the three years, which would provide the same type of economic impact as if RJ was switched for Caron at a net cost of 8 mil per year (including Caron's salary). Looks doable from this persepctive.
I would hope they are interested in Nene as well, but how realistic is Nene coming to the Spurs?
Exactly. Unless last season's small sample size from three (28 for 65) wasn't a fluke (which is highly unlikely), he's not nearly as good a three-point shooter and if he was a slightly better defender pre-injury, it's likely he'll be a worse one post-injury. So it can't be said that role-wise, he'd be a better fit and the same goes for Howard. The fact that they're reportedly interested in them and Evans, shows they're focused on adding compe ive, tough players.
I can't envision them paying what it would take to amnesty Jefferson and signing Butler (not that I think he'll sign with them anyway; Howard is more likely), so I've got to believe Jefferson, if they're to make a trade for a big, will be part of it.
First of all, I trust your numbers over anyone else's.
Second, I know it's not much, but I don't think more than one of the recent Spurs picks have gotten 100, much less 120 of the rookie scale.
Third, the Spurs have to try to find some way to trade RJ's contract if they aren't going to keep him. The more I think about it, the more I think using the amnesty clause on him would just be financially disastrous for the Spurs unless that bidding thing allows teams to help pick up the slack for them. I have a feeling they will be very active in helping to write the CBA to make sure that happens.
Butler is way better than RJ. If the spurs replace RJ with Butler it is a huge upgrade talentwise.
I have wanted Butler on the Spurs since his rookie season. This would be a great move for the spurs.
I think the savings will be less than that:
- Luxury tax money will be likely prorated. If Spurs are $4M over the threshold they will pain only $3.2M in tax.
- Little luxury tax should be collected this year because of the proration, the new MLE for tax payers and the amnesty rule.
- There is a new rule saying that non paying tax teams can't get more than 50% of the luxury tax money collected. So if 5 teams pay the tax, teams below the tax will only get 1/50th of the money collected and not 1/30th like in the past.
All in all, savings should be around $4.5M and not $7M.
The huge financial key to decide whether or not to amnesty RJ is if a team with cap space will claim a significant part of his contract during the waiving procedure.
Anderson got almost 120% (120% in year 1, 115% in year 2, 117% in year 3 and 4).
Lowballing Leonard won' be easy to do because he was a great college player even if he has a small agent. Jospeh was a reach at #29 so Spurs could maybe convince him to sign for 80% of the rookie scale for the first year only.
Things would be so much simpler if Peter Holt were willing to pay the luxury tax for just one freakin' season.
*sigh*
i cant see holt eating RJ's contract. he was the guy that was begging the players to allow them to save the amnesty for more than a year. but doesnt signing butler and forcing to keep jefferson leonard useless. he wont play.
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