Hurricane Emily: Texas Bound?

[spurster]

[MannyIsGod]

Dio, you're wrong.

#1. It's July. Peak heating of the Oceans in the Northern Hemisphere doesn't occur untill September. There is more than enough energy left to fuel catagory 4 and 5 storms and there will be after Emily.

What a hurricane of that force does, is bring water up from lower depths that is colder which in turn mixes with the warm water at the surface bringing down Sea Surface Temps (SST). While that is going to have an effect and leave what is known as a cold wake behind, it is a temporary effect, especially when you consider how early in the season it is. There is no draining involved, it is simply the mixing in of coler water.

In July, there have only been 4 major hurricanes including this season. We've had half of the strong hurricanes in July in one year because of the high SST and other factors. As the season goes on, the tempature in the Gulf is only going to rise.

Whats more, is that there has been an underestimation of tempatures in the ocean so far this year. While the models right now are saying that Emily will drop in strength upon entering the Gulf, they might be working with false information. If thats the case then Emily might not lose as much strength.

Basically, you are flat out wrong. The Gufl can support more cat 4/5 stroms within this year. It may not be until the late season, but thats when they usually form to begin with.

#2. The Yucatan has no effect on the steering of storms and where they go. Yes, a storm will weaken if it goes over the Yucutan because it is over land, but that does not mean that its going to go south.

[Ishta]

I guess we will all just have to wait and see what Emily will do.....Hopefully when she hits Texas(and I do think she will, though I hope I am wrong) the loss of life is not to great.

[Horry For 3!]

I remember the last Hurricane that hit in South Texas a couple years ago. Me and my friends were out swimming in it hahaha. It was pretty fun.

[MannyIsGod]

Dio, blow me!




DATA FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 135
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EMILY IS NOW A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 42058 IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...TROPICAL STORM FORCE.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


There's your catagory 4 hurricane less than 6 hours after you were talking .

[Mr Dio]

Well, have read & just saw on tv as well that if another storm happens in the Gulf this season it will all but drain the Gulf of the energy needed to sustain a high Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane.

Read it again Manny.
Like I posted, this is the storm that will drain the enegy that is needed to support/sustain any more hurricanes of this magnitude.
AND, Dennis was a blowhard, not nearly like the 3 that hit Fla last yr.
UNK what type of dmg this one will do but Texas will do alright..prob better than Fla did last yr.

I still want that dildo!

[MannyIsGod]

I know what you're saying. But it's wrong. The cold wake left behind by either of these 2 storms will last a short time but the Gulf will be more than capable of supporting major (> cat 3) storms again this season. In fact, it won't take long at all for the gulf to recover.

Where are you getting that from?

[Mr Dio]

There's your catagory 4 hurricane less than 6 hours after you were talking .

I never said that this one wouldn't be a CAT 4.
As I posted, if another..(I believe this is the only one we've had after Dennis, on this planet at least)

CAT 4 or CAT 5 Manny based on my WORK experience what matters most are prob the storm surge & the make-up of bldgs where it makes landfall. If a CAT 5 w/the highest winds on record hit a mostly low density popluation area than it is better than a CAT 3 w/a high storm surge in a densely populated area.

[Mr Dio]

supporting major (> cat 3)

Why don't we just call a CAT 1 major?

[Mr Dio]

Where are you getting that from?

Once again mijo..I posted it just as I had the tv on either (CNN/Weather Channel/MSN)..READ it. Some guy was talking about that subject & the channel had a little scrolling factoid/opinion thing on the bottom of the screen.

I'm willing to bet that guy(whoever the he was/is) doesn't just cut & paste his info but actually can/does write the stuff ANOTHER poster here cuts & pastes.

[MannyIsGod]

[QUOTE=Mr Dio]I never said that this one wouldn't be a CAT 4.
As I posted, if another..(I believe this is the only one we've had after Dennis, on this planet at least)

CAT 4 or CAT 5 Manny based on my WORK experience what matters most are prob the storm surge & the make-up of bldgs where it makes landfall. If a CAT 5 w/the highest winds on record hit a mostly low density popluation area than it is better than a CAT 3 w/a high storm surge in a densely populated area.[/QUOTE]

No doubt.

Now I have to go play ball. I may never have fullfiled your real world fantasy of giving it to you in the ass, but I'll be happy to continue the weather reaming later.

Biaaaaaaaaaaatch

[Mr Dio]

I may never have fullfiled your real world fantasy of giving it to you in the ass,

May never have??
"member when Jess was in H-town & twas a drak & stormy night.....

[MannyIsGod]

Well, he if can write hurricane wind speeds, he's a genius!

Or maybe he just licks his finger, sticks it up in the air, and spits out the correct wind speed?

I figured you wanted the analysis of the NWS, not mine. But I'm amatuer at best, but I know that if you search all the information far and wide on this here interweb, you won't find anything supporting what you are saying.

[Mr Dio]

you won't find anything supporting what you are saying.

As I said, I posted what was being said on the tv at the time. I don't claim to know anything about the weather except that rain is almost as wet as your bung when you see Paki in hot pants & a wig.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Sweet, I am supposed to be visiting clients in Corpus and Victoria next Tuesday - Friday.

Looks like I may be staying in Big D

[Manu20]

As of 1 pm hurricane Emily has winds of 155 mph!!

[MannyIsGod]

Texas is not out of the woods yet, but it's looking less likely. However, just a few more degrees turn north, and Emily would pass through the Yucatan Channel and not the actual Yucatan. In that case? All bets are off. It'll be an interesting 36 hours.

[Mr Dio]

I just read & saw on tv that Emily might not be as strong as we think when it leaves the Yucatan.
Emmie might stay for 2-3 days in Cancun & take the Chichen Itza tour, visit Isla de Mujeres & take the Booze Cruise. This should leave her in a somewhat weakened state & she might go sleep it off in the South Pacific or mountains of Mexico.
As a precaution President Fox is advising all cartels to tightly double wrap all shipments & enclose instructions for drying the product out when it is received by consumers.

[PM5K]

As a precaution President Fox is advising all cartels to tightly double wrap all shipments & enclose instructions for drying the product out when it is received by consumers.

LOL....

[MannyIsGod]

[Ginofan]

I just got back from South Padre like an hour ago. This morning as around 10ish, as we were checking out of our condos, the manager was on the phone with some official commerce person or whatever and he said that he was told that Emily was supposed to hit 60-70 miles south of Port Isabel, but that the Island (SPI) would be hit by the strong wind side.

That forecast has probably changed by now but I just thought I throw the info I was told out there.

[MannyIsGod]

Good and bad news.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17...JUST A LITTLE RIGHT OF 6 HR AGO.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKELY
DUE TO BETTER MODEL ANALYSES OF THE MID-LA UDE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON THE
SOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR MORE
OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS
CAUSES THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO FORECAST LESS OF A WESTWARD TURN WHILE
EMILY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES THE MODELS TO
FORECAST LANDFALL FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED A LITTLE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE GUIDANCE SHIFT AND IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE INSTEAD OF THE NORTHERN EDGE. THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN TEXAS.

GIVEN THE COOLING TOPS AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN...A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IF AN OUTER EYEWALL IS FORMING THIS BECOMES
LESS LIKELY. EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THEN
RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOW MUCH EMILY COULD
INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF WILL DEPEND ON JUST WHAT STRUCTURE EMERGES
FROM YUCATAN...SO THERE IS A LARGER THAN NORMAL POSSIBLE ERROR ON
THE 24-48 HR INTENSITY FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS...EMILY IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.

The good news is that storm has weakend somewhat. However, this storm is still strong as all is now bearing down right on Cozumel.

Today, Emily started going through an eye wall replacement cycle. Basically thats where the storm recycles itself, kind of a reboot. Emily took 24 hours last time it did that but emerged a much stronger storm. This time it's probably not going to be able to finish reestablishing the eye before coming ashore, and that will probably mean it will not reach the same power it had yesterday when it comes ashore.

What is really worse however, is that the storm has started to turn more to the north. The models are picking up on the weather pattern here over Texas and appear to have a much better feel on what is going on in the atmosphere.

To put it in other words, the low pressure that we have over us right that is causing rain, is going to pull Emily torwards it. It is much stronger than the forecasts had anticipated and is having a much stronger effect on the track of Emily than previously thought.

What this means is that the chances of the storm coming ashore in Texas are going up. The stronger the trough gets, and the longer it is in place, the more of a chance the storm is going to make landfall on our coast as opposed to Mexico.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Good and bad news.



The good news is that storm has weakend somewhat. However, this storm is still strong as all is now bearing down right on Cozumel.

Today, Emily started going through an eye wall replacement cycle. Basically thats where the storm recycles itself, kind of a reboot. Emily took 24 hours last time it did that but emerged a much stronger storm. This time it's probably not going to be able to finish reestablishing the eye before coming ashore, and that will probably mean it will not reach the same power it had yesterday when it comes ashore.

What is really worse however, is that the storm has started to turn more to the north. The models are picking up on the weather pattern here over Texas and appear to have a much better feel on what is going on in the atmosphere.

To put it in other words, the low pressure that we have over us right that is causing rain, is going to pull Emily torwards it. It is much stronger than the forecasts had anticipated and is having a much stronger effect on the track of Emily than previously thought.

What this means is that the chances of the storm coming ashore in Texas are going up. The stronger the trough gets, and the longer it is in place, the more of a chance the storm is going to make landfall on our coast as opposed to Mexico.

In other words, don't drive on the lower part of I-10 just north of downtown later on this week.

[Shelly]

Interesting...I was wondering if we'd get anything out of Emily.

[tw05baller]

yeah looks like she might leave texas alone