State of the Spurs Heading Into the 2015 Offseason

[hater]

True, I am not getting the point of having a garbage backcourt in a perimeter oriented league.

we already had a garbage backcourt last playoffs with Green.

Green with hands on his face does not make our backcourt less of a garbage

[-21-]

Nice to hear from timvp and Bruno again.

[Marcus Bryant]

Good summation. Aldridge feels like another free agency strikeout.

IMO.

[baseline bum]

Good summation. Aldridge feels like another free agency strikeout.

IMO.

I honestly think he's leaving, or why does Portland just gut their team by losing Batum, sounding like they're letting Afflalo walk, and with Matthews likely to be a s of his former self. I don't buy the hype that San Antonio is some massive favorite though if he walks, especially if Manu is returning.

[benstanfield]

wait wat

[look_at_g_shred]

Well that's just a bit much, imo.

[BillMc]

Following ring 5 (five), last offsesaon's mission was to bring back the same roster in order to give it another go with the squad that reached a near optimal performance level on their way to the 2014 championship. This summer, the picture isn't nearly as clear.

Before I touch on the free agent options, let us take a journey through the land of the in bents.

Tim Duncan
Marvel. That's about all I can do when analyzing what Tim Duncan was able to do last season. The 39-year-old put together another awe-inspiring campaign that was capped by the fact that he was the team's best player in the playoffs. Personally, factoring in his age and what appeared to be the end of the road circa 2010, I consider these last three or four seasons to be the most impressive of Duncan's storied career. Instead of Kobefying the team with a huge ego and unwillingness to change or Hakeeming his way out of town when asked to take a lesser role, he has genuinely morphed himself into an elite role player who remains one of the very best bigmen in the NBA.

It goes without saying that the Spurs need him back for the 2015-16 season. , at this rate, I'm hoping Duncan sticks around for another two-plus seasons. Outside of family considerations, I see no reason he should even ponder the thought of retirement. He has so mastered the transition from superstar to complementary piece that he could simply play as long as he wanted to play – barring injury, of course.

Four more years, TD. That's right, I said it.

Manu Ginobili
Sure, Manu Ginobili lost a step or two last season. Yes, at times he appeared to be painfully old. Was it the worst season of the future Hall of Famer's career? Perhaps.

All that said, I want Ginobili to return. I think he has one more useful season left in those contused legs.

While it's clear that he's no longer Ginobili of old, Old Ginobili is still damn good. By any metric you want to utilize, he's still an above average player in the league. Even if he can only play 18-20 minutes per game next season, what he can do in his time on the court is so very vital to making the Spurs a true championship contender.

This is a team – regardless of what happens in free agency – that will need depth and cohesion to succeed. Ginobili remains a fantastic playmaker, particularly when compared to other shooting guards, who is capable of quarterbacking the team during his minutes.

If Ginobili is removed from the puzzle, it would be a sizable loss; the team's ceiling would be much lower. At his price point, the Argentine is virtually irreplaceable.

Come back, Manu. One more year. Por favor.

Tony Parker
*slow exhale*
To say that Tony Parker had a disappointing year would not be a controversial statement. Glimpses of the Frenchman that the Spurs had known for so long were recognizable here and there. Unfortunately, for much of the season, Parker was one of the most frustratingly inept players to step foot on the hardwood.

Now, am I ready to wave the white flag on 33-year-old's career? No. Here's why: 1) He was asked to refrain from basketball activities last summer and the result was a dullness to his game from Day 1. 2) Parker never got in game shape (to put it kindly) at any point during the campaign. 3) Nagging injuries played a role (whether significant or not, I don't know) in his diminished production.

I believe Parker can bounce back – and he already has witnessed the blueprint. Duncan at age 33 looked like he was done. The Spurs had just gotten swept by the Suns in a series in which TD was more often a liability than an asset. However, after recomposing his body and adjusting his mental approach to his altered role, Duncan experienced a rebirth.

Can Parker do the same? It's far from guaranteed but if he enters the season sharp, healthy and in-shape, I believe he can scratch and claw his way to one more high-level season.

Kawhi Leonard
It's been a joy to witness Kawhi Leonard evolve from a timid rookie to a beast capable of taking over games on both ends of the court. It's been so fun; the quiet kid from California has already given Spurs fans a career-worth of fond memories.

I must also admit, though, that I still have no idea how good Leonard can become going forward. He remains such a malleable collection of amorphous talent that I have trouble estimating exactly what is in store.

The first move of the Spurs offseason should be to hand Leonard a blank contract and tell him to fill it out with whatever amount of money and years he desires. He deserves it and will continue to deserve it.

Danny Green
Here is where the summer gets scary. While it's fun to dream of big offseason acquisitions that will splash the NBA landscape with sexy headlines, I am petrified by the thought of the Spurs losing Danny Green. It is literally something I spend time worrying about.

I know that one common opinion regarding Green revolves around the fact that the Spurs picked him up off the scrapheap and could replace him with another overlooked guard itching for a chance to thrive in San Antonio's system. But it just doesn't work that way. For every Danny Green there are a dozen Chucky Browns, Charles Smiths (Spider not bag), Ime Udokas and Keith Bogans.

In Green, the Spurs have one of the most prolific shooters in NBA history. Yes, he's streaky but at the end of the season, you can pencil in Green for 42 percent from beyond the arc. Additionally, he's not afraid of the big stage, he never complains about minutes, he's at peace with his role and the amount of corporate knowledge he has amassed is immense.

It's true that Pop can get frustrated by Green's airheadedness at times; that's clear. And it's true that he's rather limited on offense and it's true that his potential on that end has already been reached. But he can shoot with anyone in the league when he's going good ... and that's a vital attribute in the system. Beyond that, he's a very good defender – both individually and team-wise.

How much is Green worth to the Spurs? Realistically, especially since the salary cap is about to jump, I don't see how the front office balks at paying him even if another team is offering $10-13 million per season. He's a quality starting shooting guard in the NBA at the peak of his athletic prime who is a proven winner. Add it up and it will likely be very expensive to retain him. By summer's end, I hope it's the Spurs footing that expense.

Tiago Splitter
Lost in the talk regarding potential bigman acquisitions this summer is the fact that Tiago Splitter is pretty damn good when healthy. Unfortunately, that qualifier is also what makes him expendable. If the Brazilian could be counted on being healthy, I don't think the Spurs should even waste their time trying to upgrade the position.

But now it's to the point that Splitter's mysterious and lingering calf issue just won't go away. Before his final time injuring it last season, he was playing fantastic basketball. And while he played hard in the playoffs, his physical limitations were painfully obvious and caused him to be a shadow of his healthy self.

I would love for Splitter to remain in San Antonio if it's feasible that he can be healthy. If the front office doesn't think that is a likely outcome, I wouldn't begrudge a trade.

Boris Diaw
I put Boris Diaw in the same category as Ginobili. He's not the perfect player and he has limitations but he's a needed cog in the machine. He improves the team's IQ, depth and flexibility. Losing him would be detrimental to the championship hopes.

Next season, Diaw's ultimate value will largely be based on whether he can regain his three-point shooting touch. If he's a threat from downtown, he's a perfect fit for the system. If he struggles again (he shot only 32% last season compared to 40% the previous season), he'll still be useful but the fit wouldn't be as snug.

Marco Belinelli
Though his stats were down last season, I was moderately pleased with Marco Belinelli. His defense, or lack thereof, limits his value to the Spurs but he's a useful player. He's a threat from the perimeter, he moves well without the ball, he doesn't get intimidated and he's team-oriented.

I wouldn't want him attempting to replace Green in the starting lineup (*shudder*) or otherwise taking a big role with the team, but as a regular season scorer to carry some of the offensive burden, he's helpful.

Patty Mills
The recovery from the shoulder surgery just didn't go as smoothly as everyone hoped. Missing Patty Mills' oomph during the regular season probably cost the Spurs a handful of wins and it'd be a shame if he can't completely rebound for the forthcoming season.

The Australian whirlwind played well in the playoffs so let's hope that is a sign that he'll be ready to roll come October. When he's right, Mills is the conscienceless gunner the bench unit needs to properly space the court and keep the opposition on its toes. He's the perfect complement to Ginobili's playmaking ability and provides the Spurs an x-factor that can tip the scales in their favor at any point.

If Ginobili retires? Mills' weaknesses suddenly aren't as camouflaged and the Spurs might have to investigate whether or not he's still worth his price tag. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

Cory Joseph
I thought Cory Joseph had a good season last year. He filled in well when his number was called. He doesn't have much in the natural talent department but he's a try-hard who will carve out a career in the NBA.

Whether Jospeh should be brought back depends on a lot of variables. If Ginobili retires, Joseph being more of a true point guard would narrow the gap between him and Mills. If the Spurs lose guard depth elsewhere, he'd be a good insurance policy with a nice amount of upside.

But if Ginobili returns and the Spurs can retain a majority of their depth, re-signing Joseph should remain on the lower end of the to-do list.

Aron Baynes
I really liked what I saw from Aron Baynes during the regular season. He blossomed in front of our eyes. It was like he grew into his body and figured out how he needed to use his hulking frame on the NBA level.

Then the playoffs happened. With Splitter hampered, Baynes had the opportunity to step up and show the world he is for real. Unfortunately, he fell flat on his face and was terrible against the Clippers.

In theory, I'd like for the Spurs to bring him back but it's unlikely he'd be thrilled with being the fifth big once again. Like Joseph, there are scenarios where bringing back Baynes would make sense, but for now he too remains near the bottom of the to-do list.

Matt Bonner
Meh, as a sixth big on a minimum contract, Matt Bonner is fine. He knows what to do and remains a threat, at least in scouting reports. It'd likely be his last year but the Spurs could do worse filling the end of the bench.

Jeff Ayres
Speak of the devil. Yeah, no, I'm ready for the Spurs to move on. Maybe if the Spurs get desperate for a 13th man … nah, nevermind, I'd rather they not.

Reggie Williams
Well, he's supposed to be able to shoot, even though the Spurs didn't see him hit cord very often last season. If the Spurs lose too many shooters in the offseason, I wouldn't be surprised to see Reggie Williams in training camp.

Kyle Anderson
I'm intrigued. He makes Boris Diaw seem like Usain Bolt but Kyle Anderson is crafty and has talent. I think summer league next week will give us a preview of what to expect from him this season. If he stars, it's not out of the question that he could carve out a spot in the rotation. If he blends into the background, he better rent an apartment in Austin.


Let us turn our attention to free agency. In other words, let us speak of LaMarcus Aldridge.

It's the day before free agency so that means the Spurs are the favorites to land a prestigious name. It seems like the Spurs are always rumored to be the preferred destination … but then the bell rings and Mr. Prestigious is off to a larger market or a bigger contract or more limelight.

If I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on Aldridge signing with the Spurs. He might and he probably should (obviously I'm biased) but I'd be more surprise than relieved.

If the Spurs can sign LaMarcus Aldridge, should they do so? Yes. I really, really want the Spurs to retain Green, but if it comes down to Aldridge or Green, the Spurs obviously have to pick Aldridge. It'd be a no-brainer. All-Star bigmen with prime years left simply do not come knocking on the door often. You sign Aldridge, if that's what he wants, and figure out the rest later. I don't care about his playoff struggles or his supposed questionable at ude or any other purported red flag, the guy is good.

The perfect world would have the Blazers agreeing to a sign-and-trade that would then give the Spurs the financial wherewithal to adequately fill out the rest of their roster. If that doesn't happen, re-signing Leonard and adding Aldridge would still be considered a success, no matter what else happens.

Are there any other big name free agents I'd want the Spurs to chase? I'd love Marc Gasol, but he's not leaving Memphis. Kevin Love in a hypothetical world would be a nice fit, but I can't imagine him signing with the Spurs. Someone like Greg Monroe could be a possibility, but do you potentially blow up your team to max him out? That's difficult to justify.


The Spurs appear to be all-in on Aldridge, which I agree is the smart move. I haven't heard much talk about a Plan B, which also makes sense because I think Plan B should be to try to bring back the same team while possibly adding an undervalued free agent who falls through the cracks of the feeding frenzy.

Unless something goes spectacularly wrong (losing out on Aldridge and seeing a team steal Green, for example) during the offseason, I like San Antonio's chances next season. There will be a lot of Ifs (if Duncan can hold back Father time, if Parker can bounce back, if Leonard to take the next step, etc.) but a successful season with a strong postseason push is entirely possible. And that's what it's all about.

Great write up and great to see you and Bruno back. The collective IQ of this site just went up 40 points.

[Drom John]

Welcome back all y'all.

[ducks]

WHY DO PEOPLE QUOTE A BIG POST?

[Mr.Bottomtooth]

[honestfool84]

When is duncan228 coming back?!

[Robz4000]

it stopped hurting for a bit

Good read tho . Looking like LMA goes to the Lakers or ultimately stays in Portland. It'd be frightening if he ends up in Houston somehow.

[honestfool84]

On the flip side, it really is great to have you back, timvp. My sources tell me that you have insider information that Aldridge is for sure signing with the Spurs, and so you are returning once more to SpursTalk to 'bring the forum back to the light'.

[Dex]

Good stuff. Thanks timvp. Miss seeing your write-ups around here.

[Chinook]

Their attempt to write of signing-and-trading is idiotic. The Spurs would have to give up $13 Million to take LMA, so they'd be $20 Million from the apron in that scenario, not $7 Million. Plenty of room to fill out the roster.

[ElNono]

Great read, as usual. Good timing too.

[024]

I've never been 100% sold on Aldridge especially with talks about trading away Splitter/Diaw/Mills and/or letting Green go. Combined that with losing 1-2 of those 4 mentioned players AND possibly losing Ginobili, Belineli, and Baynes the Spurs will be damn thin at the bench. It's not worth destroying the entire bench just to sign Aldridge. And Aldridge will be 30 in a few weeks. His best days may be behind him.

I really hope the Spurs FO has a cap plan to retain an effective team if Aldridge signs. If they can, then the Spurs should definitely roll the dice on Aldridge. Duncan may only be back for 1 or 2 years so they should push for another championship during this time even if Aldridge starts declining rapidly past age 32.

[Gagnrath]

put in a similar caliber player. Sign Lamar, figure out the rest later.

thinking one trick Pony is essential to the Spurs and we should maneuver the entire franchise around it is re ed

Hater there are three moderately important things you are forgetting.

1. This Isn't 1995 or even 2005 in today's NBA rules changes and officiating changes have made having a back down bigman, and especially 2 of them less essential. The guy driving to the basket can bowl people over, the guy who had position gets knocked down and the driving player goes to the line even with established position. (a majority of the time).

2. Green isn't simply a well above average defensive player, he is one of the top handful of 3 point shooters in the league. The problem is that even though he has a green light to shoot he is also icy hot in that he's streaky as .

3. Most teams have converted to a guard or wing centric offense Parker who was never more than an adequate defender to start with has lost a step or 3 and also wants to conserve energy for offense. Parker is going no where. How many high level defenders with decent shooting are there out there in your world and how many can be had for around $10 mill per year?

Also please remember the spurs have a fairly short window here and system knowledge usually takes about a year to acquire.

[Vic Petro]

Hope this is more of a return than a cameo. Welcome back guys.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

He lives!


Great post Timvp.

I agree with you for the most part. To me, Parker is a huge concern. His drop-off in performance in 2015 was significant and can't be ignored. I'm hoping his compe ive nature will fuel him to transform his body and come back stronger than ever. I'm a little concerned about his drive to do that, though. And even if he does, he's a speed oriented, shoot first point-guard. Tim's game was never based on things like speed and quickness, that, once they're gone, never seems to come back in youthful volumes. Not only will Parker's body need to transform, his game will have to change. He'll need to continue to expand his arsenal of offensive plays and become more of a facilitator than he's ever been.

Hopefully the Spurs reputation as the top franchise in professional sports will be enough to lure a player like Aldridge. The Spurs, for all their greatness, will need an anchor, a franchise player to build around. Leonard may be that player, although at this point he's looking more like the Scottie Pippen than the Michael Jordan. We'll see how he continues to progress.

[cjw]

I honestly think he's leaving, or why does Portland just gut their team by losing Batum, sounding like they're letting Afflalo walk, and with Matthews likely to be a s of his former self. I don't buy the hype that San Antonio is some massive favorite though if he walks, especially if Manu is returning.

It could just be that Manu is waiting to hear if Aldridge is coming back (or the gang is generally coming back together) before deciding to suit it up for next year. Last thing he probably wants to do at this point is commit to a team that has no Green and no Aldridge = him having to shoulder more of the SG duties and more of scoring load.

[cjw]

Aldridge max contract = ~94% x $67.1mm = $18.9mm

For sign-and-trade to work, Spurs would have to ship out $13.9mm in salary ($5mm less than incoming). Splitter is almost certain to be included at $8.5mm, bringing the difference down to $5.4mm. Patty is at $3.58mm, so still a difference of $1.842mm. Is Reggie Williams' contract fully unguaranteed and could it be included? Still leaves them short of a full max offer unless another player were included in S&T. Only Anderson + Marco (if he can be included in S&T) + CoJo (if he hadn't already signed an offer sheet) could bridge the difference.

If they go the cap space route, Aldridge + Parker + Diaw + Kawhi + Mills + Anderson = $51.817mm. Assuming Splitter can be shipped out for no salary in return and counting Duncan at $6 million (Manu either gone or signed to BAE), plus cap holds for the veteran's minimum would put them at $60.442, or $6-$7mm under the cap for one player plus the room exception left to replace Green. Keeping Green in place would require Tim to take one for the team, or for Mills to be shipped out.

There are ways there, though none are painless.


Thanks for correction, Richie.

[spurraider21]

Inb4

Thought I was done crying, then I see this thread. you Timvp. We miss you and love you dude.

[RD2191]

[ElNono]

Hopefully Parker runs instead of bouncing, tbh... we should have a better picture about him in September when the French NT plays...