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Manny...the very nature of the beaches/coastal shelf in Galveston accentuate the surge...there is such a shallow and gradually sloping shelf that water tends to stack up there...
Kyoto has nothing to do with this hurricane. NOTHING. I wish people would STFU about that.
Manny...the very nature of the beaches/coastal shelf in Galveston accentuate the surge...there is such a shallow and gradually sloping shelf that water tends to stack up there...
I think you're wrong there, Manny.
See, Kyoto is like a GTG at Kori and LJ's place.
Since it's like that, then we must conclude that sheep are fluffy.
Didn't mean to hit a sore spot. I was only kidding. Trust me, I'm just as tired of that bull . Kyoto didn't break the levee, and Kyoto didn't make people botch the relief effort at every level. But I digress.
At the risk of sounding a little stupid, Manny how is it that you are so learned about the weather? Do you work for the Nat. Weather Service or something?
He's a weather geek.
You could have taken this opportunity to use the word, "Hobo". How fun is that to say outloud?
Hobo.
Kyoto was no factor in ANYTHING about the storm. Attempting to tie global warming into any one storm is foolish and has no scientific merrit.
As for me and the weather, I'm just a nerd. I read about this stuff a lot, and take every oportunity like this to learn more. At the least, I've probably given myself at least a portion of an undergrad education in atmospheric sciences.
CC, All I'm saying is that Katrina type storms do not come along very often, much less in such little time span. It is defeintly possible, but very very very unlikely this storm will ever make it as powerful as Katrina and even less likely it would sustain the strength long enough to reach land.
Also, it is my understanding the area around Galveston Bay actually has some decent sea walls unlike NO.
We'll see how it plays out. Hopefully this thing doesn't get to be like Katrina.
Manny, I see you've met my fiance's (spurs_fan_in_exile) twisted humor. I cracked the Kyoto joke as well when I heard about this. It's good we're getting married.
My question, in all seriousness is whether or not we should evacuate if it continues towards Houston/Galveston. We won't flood in my area (from experience), but I don't know what wind damage, etc could do. I know we'll be ed if we lose power, because we wouldn't be able to boil water or cook food, but J is talking about not evacuating, and most of the natives are laughing at the idea of evacuating for less than a Cat 4.
what area are you in?
SW side of Houston.
Second floor apartment, but not near a bayou (no flooding).
I lived near Sugarland (southwest Houston) When Alicia hit in '83...it weakened significantly before coming ashore as a category 1 or 2...we had 95-100 mph winds and the water in the street was almost up to our front door...a spinoff toronado destroyed a church about a half mile away...it would have killed us if it had hit the house. It was raining glass in downtown Houston. As wimpy as that storm was it did over a billion dollars worth of damage in the Houston area...
If you are in Houston and it looks like Rita is going to be a category 3 I suggest boarding up and getting the out of there...
Last edited by CosmicCowboy; 09-19-2005 at 05:21 PM.
easjer, everywhere in Hoston floods. I remember when I lived in Richmond back in the late 90's going to one of the "park and rides" for the Rodeo and I parked under a sign that said something like "During floods this sign will be under 10+ feet of water". That was around the time of a tropical storm of some sort (this was '99 I think) and all kinds of areas flooded and streets shut down.
Just play it safe and get out if asked. How bad can it be? If you're wrong, so you spend 2-3 days shacked up with your fiance eating room service and not having to change your own sheets.
I'm using that analogy to describe the fact that Katrina was a cat 1 when it hit he gulf and as soon as it did, it ballooned to a CAT 5.
This storm looks huge and it hasn't even hit the gulf yet.
[Manny]And quit name calling.[/Manny]
I was there in the same apartment during Allison, and no flooding. The major areas, oh yes, but otherwise . . . the biggest inconvenience I had was no cell phone service (I don't use a landline). My apartment complex is on high ground.
My feeling is that we pack up the cat and go stay with my mom in New Braunfels. If there is bad enough flooding, we'll just be there straight through the wedding and honeymoon. . . but J is not so keen (and apparently, neither are many of my colleagues).
I saw what category 1 winds can do. Transformers were exploding up and down the street..We lost power for 36 hours and it tore up all over the place...power lines were blown down everywhere...water was literally blowing through the walls around the windows...and it was a brand new "tight" house...I am confident cat 2 winds would have blown the windows right out...
The gulf is cooler now than it was for Katrina, to get CAT 4s and 5s you need super warm water. Also, Katrina was the 4th strongest hurricane in US history...KEEP THAT IN MIND. Storms like that don't happen often at all. This WILL NOT be Katrina II.
They'll happen more often now. El Nino, global warming.
Considering that the main attraction our land holds for doves is our two stock tanks, any significant rain in the northern LaSalle County area will pretty much ruin the hunting for at least a week or two.
I hope you get rained out.
And yes, I do have my priorities in order. Thank you very much.
Tropical Storm Rita Discussion Number 8
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2005
Rita is close to hurricane status... but it is not quite there yet.
The storm is producing some very deep convection near the center...
banding features in the northern and eastern quadrants...and
increasingly well-established outflow indicating lessening shear.
The overall extent of deep convection has decreased somewhat during
the past couple of hours...but this often occurs during the
afternoon convective minimum period. Data from the stepped
frequency microwave radiometer...SFMR...onboard a NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft...recently indicated surface winds as strong as 62
kt about 25 N mi southeast of the center. The minimum central
pressure measured by dropsonde has been holding at 994-995 mb...
and the advisory intensity is maintained at 60 kt.
Rita is on track... and as anticipated is moving a little faster
toward the west-northwest...now at 285/12. Models remain in tight
agreement that this motion will change little during the next
couple of days...except for a slight Bend to the west into the Gulf
of Mexico to the south of the mid level ridge along about 30n. The
dynamical models have generally shifted slightly back to the left
or west at days 3 through 5...bringing the consensus into good
agreement with the previous advisory. Overall the new suite of
guidance provides little reason to make any changes to the official
forecast track... except to speed it up just slightly. However...
the spread in the models over the Gulf remains significant...since
it is not clear if the ridge over the southeastern U.S. Will
migrate far enough eastward late in the forecast period to curve
Rita northward around its western periphery. The NOGAPS and GFDN
forecast a straight westward track into southern Texas...while the
GFS and GFDL forecast a northward Bend toward the Texas/Lousiana
border region. Given this uncertainty...it must again be emphasized
that forecast errors can be quite large at these longer lead times.
Even though Rita is not yet a hurricane...conditions appear
conducive for it to become one soon...prior to reaching the Gulf of
Mexico. Intensification to major hurricane status over the Gulf of
Mexico appears probable...given that the dynamical models are
forecasting a large upper level anticyclone to dominate the area
and provide an environment of weak wind shear. Additionally...ocean
temperatures are quite warm in the Gulf...and not just at the
surface. The new official intensity forecast is basically an update
of the previous one through day 3...then calling for a peak at 105
kt over the Gulf in accordance with the latest SHIPS guidance. The
GFDL and FSU superensemble forecast an even stronger hurricane over
the Gulf...and this is certainly possible.
Forecaster Knabb
El Nino prevents storm development in the Atlanic due to incrased shear values. Do you pride yourself on speaking on things you know absolutely nothing about? You do a damn good job of that.
this baby is startin to cook up...
Hmm...I was just looking at that storm track again...I know there could be a lot of variation between now and then, but do you know what is currently sitting in the bullseye of the strike zone? The South Texas Nuclear Plant in Bay City...
A Cat 5 won't harm a power plant. They are built to enourmous specificatoins, if I'm not mistaken.
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