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Watching you demonstrate your illusions about population dynamics is amusing.
It doesn't matter. PA was never going for Trump. Sure the coal miners will, but they have wives too, and the wives are women and somewhere along the line are proud of womanhood and want a president who respects women... they're never going to ADMIT to their husband they voted Hillary, but it's going to be funny in those coal mines on Wednesday when all the drunk shaggy guys are screaming to each other "Naaaaaow whoooo the voted for that lying bi-..."
Watching you demonstrate your illusions about population dynamics is amusing.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/doc...M_November.pdf
new mexico Clinton up just 2?
And 4 hours later Trump up in all three states.
Florida Trump +.2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tein-5963.html
North Carolina Trump +1.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nson-5951.html
http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politi...016/index.html
Nevada Trump +1.5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nson-6004.html
Lots of right leaning pollsters coming out of the woodwork to boost his chances.
The early voting results just doesn't bare any of that out. Specially in Nevada.
Colorado has an EV advantage for Donald Duck, so there's that.
(CNN)The political consensus is virtually unanimous: If Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina, Donald Trump has to win every other compe ive state to take the White House.Clinton has other paths to victory without North Carolina, but the state has been a focus for Democrats this cycle. She has led in most public opinion polling there since the summer. Just 12 days ago, a New York Times poll had her leading by 7 points, and the CNN poll of polls currently has her ahead by 4 points.
But a CNN analysis of early voting paints a very different picture and suggests that Clinton has underperformed President Obama's 2012 performance in the Tar Heel State and Trump has outperformed Mitt Romney.
It might seem that Democrats have built up a big early lead. More than 1.3 million Democrats have already voted compared to 990,000 Republicans.
But the raw numbers don't account for the 2012 results. President Barack Obama built an early lead then but got trounced by Mitt Romney on Election Day.
As of Saturday, the final day of early voting, slightly fewer Democrats had cast ballots while 125,000 more Republicans have voted this time. If this election shapes up like the last, Donald Trump would win North Carolina.
There is one key difference that complicates the data: Independent voters came out this time in droves. They cast nearly 810,000 votes, up a whopping 42% from 2012.
This group broke heavily for Romney in 2012. However, he was a more traditional Republican. Romney himself has been one of Trump's harshest critics, saying last spring "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud."
One difference this election is the popularity of a third-party candidate, Libertarian Gary Johnson. The CNN poll of polls show him garnering 5% support among likely voters.
Other early voting trends favor Trump. While polls show Clinton has a commanding lead among African Americans, the share of black votes so far is down 5 percentage points. Trump does much better with white voters, who increased their share by 3% this election.
Another group that failed to show up was 20-something Democrats. The North Carolina Board of Elections releases data on each voter. CNN compared registered voters who voted early in both 2012 and 2016.
One third of Democrats age 22 to 29 who voted in 2012 failed to show up this time. By comparison, turnout of Democrats age 50 and older exceeded 90%.
Twenty-something Republicans were more enthusiastic. Nearly three quarters of them who voted early in 2012 showed up again this election.
I saw an early limited voting results in PA that had Trump with a 9 point lead last night on MSNBC.
These states, I have zero doubt won't go red.
As I said before, those coal miners have wives too, and some may have kids in college or beyond. The coal miner might thus be the only Trump vote in his own family.
One thing I think this election will shatter an all-time record for: wives voting against the will of their own husbands.
I know more women that are hard core Trump supporters than men.
I know a few too, obviously excluding the little old ladies. The younger "Trump Girls" are all girlfriends/wives of bikers, lorry drivers, and tow-truck wreckers. These girls normally have 20 tattoos, wear all black, and get around in a motorcycle. Ehh.
One thing I can be sure of: Trump will win the motorcycle vote 90/10+, and HRC will win the dead vote 90/10+. But those are smallish demographics.
Guess it reflects the demographic group you hang with. The ones I know are all upper middle class normals.
So Nate Silver at this moment is projecting FL, NC, NV and NH as light blue, although his margins for FL and NC are 0.5%
The funniest (and most predictable) poll is Rasmussen which quietly went from Trump+1 10 days ago to Clinton+2 today. They pull this every time, fluffing the R candidate for weeks and then showing a D lead right at the end to maintain their reputation.
Quit doing this to yourself ducks.
ONLINE BATTLEGROUND: Trump beating Clinton in Google searches
http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2016/11/...-searches.html
Quit doing this to yourself ducks.
If I didn't know how these pollsters and networks collaborate with each other for hits and ratings those PA and MI polls would draw a eyebrow from me.
damm should drop 10k on trump
Desperation sets in.
Is that water I see up ahead, a pond maybe?
Upon arriving at the salt flats, the duck turned and fell dead.
Final count
Public transit shut down, dindus in Philly ain't turning out. Good game cuck
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