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where do you get that from?
Xena
Quamiea
Yoshimi
Zelda
where do you get that from?
Xena
Quamiea
Yoshimi
Zelda
Nice one.
I can't believe we are on Alpha with a whole month to go! Crazy season to say the very least.
updates?
I'm (along with most professional and amateur meteorologists) extremely perplexed as to just how Alpha formed. There is so much shear in that area, it should be virtually impossible for a storm to have formed there.
But then again, it should have been impossible for Vince form where it did then hit Spain, it should have been impossible for us to have this many catagory 5 storms, it should have been impossible to set this many records. 05 is definetly the year of possible impossibilities.
Wilma isn't going to be done after Florida either. New England is going to get nailed as the storm tranitions into an extra tropical monster. Much like what you saw in "The Perfect Storm" although probably not to the same degree.
"You nailed it Manny!"
Manny you should take the job of the guy who does mornings for KENS now..
The guy really sucks BAD. He tries these stupid jokes and is just the most annoying
weatherman in the world.
As of 10am cdt Hurricane Wilma has winds of 100mph with gusts to 120mph moving to the northeast at 8mph.
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 33
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 23, 2005
Wilma is moving a little faster toward the northeast at about 7
kt... which is a mere preview of the gradual acceleration expected
during the next couple of days. A mid- to upper-level low currently
situated roughly over Iowa is forecast by the dynamical models to
move eastward over the Great Lakes region during the next 24 hours.
The associated trough over the southeastern United States will
deepen some and gradually strengthen the westerlies over the Gulf
of Mexico... which will push Wilma northeastward at an increasing
pace. The latest dynamical model runs continue to focus the Florida
landfall over the southern part of the peninsula... but still with
some variation in both the speed and path. The GFDL is the
southernmost solution... and the other models have perhaps shifted
slightly south and are a little slower than before. The official
forecast is only adjusted slightly to the south with negligible
change in the timing... and it is very close to the model
consensus. It is important to stress that one should not focus on
the exact forecast track since Wilma has a large and expanding wind
field... and significant impacts will likely be felt well away from
the center.
The last recon fix at about 12z measured a central pressure 961
mb... which had remained steady for several hours. The next
aircraft is almost in the center at this hour and will provide
updates on the pressure and winds. For now...the intensity is kept
at 85 kt given the limited changes in structure observed in
satellite imagery... and 12z Dvorak intensity estimates of t5.0/90
kt. Inner core convection and organization do seem to be on a
gradual increase. As Wilma passes over The Loop current
today...and while the wind shear remains weak enough... some
intensification is certainly possible during the next 12 to 18
hours... as suggested by the GFDL model. The SHIPS guidance
forecasts a steady weakening until landfall... although it might be
overestimating the impacts of shear in the short term. However...it
does appear that the shear will strengthen in the hours prior to
landfall and as Wilma crosses Florida... so weakening is indicated
in the official forecast before landfall. While the best estimate
of landfall intensity is category two...it remains possible that
Wilma could reach Florida at category three intensity.
Forecaster Knabb
That area is really susceptible to storm surge. The weaker the better.
Tourists stuck on Cozumel. Casa Del Mar is where I stayed at last time. Nice
place.
Just in - An update from hotel assoc - no people in
Convention Center at this time. Authorites consider
that people will be safe in these hotels. Tourist
assoc says the island has 15 days supplies of food,
fuel, etc.
HOTELS WITH PEOPLE:
Hotel San Miguel 6
Melia 119
Occidental Grand 200
Sol Caribe 16
Villablanca 6
Casa del Mar 24
Mexicana 64
Coral Princess 69
Cozumel Palace 4
Hotel Cozumel Resort 88
Days Inn 48
El Cozumeleno 122
El Cid 44
Fiesta Americana 100
@ 900 people total
- no expectation of planes to arrive
I wonder if Wilma will gain anymore strength before making landfall in Florida..I can't believe there are so many people staying..
I would stay if I wasn't right on the coast. It is moving so fast its going to pass very quickly.
It looks like the circulation of Hurricane Wilma will overtake Alpha.
Tropical Depression Alpha Discussion Number 7
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on October 23, 2005
the surface circulation associated with Alpha remains a bit elusive
since emerging from Hispaniola earlier today but it is assumed to be
within the persistent area of convection over the southern Bahamas.
This yields a slightly faster and more northward motion of
360/18...consistent with the anticipated acceleration toward the
north-northeast ahead of Wilma. Given the resilience of this
convective area...the initial intensity is kept at 30 knots and is
supported by a recent Quikscat pass and ship zcdg8 which recently
reported 29 kt. The intensity forecast is challenging. On one
hand...the shear is forecast to remain low through 24 hours and the
circulation is now completely over water. On the other
hand...global models all agree that the depression will be rapidly
overtaken by and will merge with the expanding circulation
associated with Wilma. The official forecast assumes this
interactions will begin sooner rather than later and keeps Alpha as
a depression until it becomes completely absorbed by the larger
circulation of Wilma in 24-36 hours.
Forecaster Rhome/Stewart
As of 10pm cdt Hurricane Wilma has maximum winds of 115mph with gusts to 140mph and moving to the NE at 18mph.
This sucks not a single media at Cozumel.
Where is Bill Clinton? At a beach in Asia?
I don't know why they expected a catagory 1 storm. You guys can think Wilma for the cooler morning today. The circulation around that storm was so strong it helped pull down even more cold air.
The way this storm is going to form over the atlantic is going to be really interesting. Alpha is going to be obsorbed somehow and its going to get form up with the trough. Sucks for people out in the middle of the ocean.
I was thinking the same thing. Storms have been blowing up in the Gulf all season and now they expect this one to weaken? They're lucky it was going so fast or it probably would have got to Cat 4.
Have the Gulf and Carribbean water temperatures never been this high to where it confuses all the forecasters?
not me i had said a Cat 2 or 3 for FL
Well Isla Mujeres is wiped out. Like 99% gone..
Cozumel is really fooked up. The cruise ship docks are gone. It looks 10x worse than the Cancun pics.
Here is a pic I took downtown last July. And one from almost the same spot
from Yahoonews wilma pics.
Last edited by Vashner; 10-25-2005 at 02:16 AM.
Wow. That sucks man, that area has gotten hammered this year. Thankfully the season is finally coming to a close.
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