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Even DeSantis won't speak out against Trump.
Yes
No
Not if he is legally barred from it. The state especially in NY means zilch but the federal could potentially prohibit him from re-running. They could even do a third impeachment if necessary and all you need is 10 (or is it 17?) crossover GOP senators who prefer Desantis et al over another Trump run to cross over the line, and then Trump would be blocked from ever running for POTUS again. I believe the GOP does have that many anti-Trump senators.
Even DeSantis won't speak out against Trump.
it's my understanding that Trump's custodial status has no bearing at all on whether he can run for president.
Well the RNC convention in Wisconsin next summer will decide who is the nominee, not the popular vote or delegates. Historically they have gone by delegates and in good faith that is what they should do, however, if a person is incarcerated they would look to nominate the person with the next highest number of delegates, which logically would be DeSantis.
No, because unlike the establishment rabble (Pence, Christie, Hutchinson, et al) he is smart, calculating, and doesn't burn bridges.
He knows he is still currently most likely the long-term inheritor to the MAGA throne if he plays his cards correctly and doesn't go full never-Trump, but he also knows that he's the next man up in 2024 if for some reason Trump gets dq'ed or drops out.
He is wise for not speaking out against Trump at this time, and he will be wise to endorse Trump pretty early in the primary process if Trump gets exonerated and it looks like he is getting s acked in the delegates count early in the primary cycle.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 06-10-2023 at 01:33 PM.
No one in your party is brave enough to do that. Christie became a suicide bomber because he's being paid to do it by more rich Republican cowards who won't speak out against Trump themselves.
You're going to have to wait until Trump dies to be free of him. That's how cults work.
Even in an infinite universe, odds are that he will be found guilty of at least 1 of the 37 counts against him.
If a person is incarcerated in a physical federal confinement (or even house arrest at Mar-a-Lago), that means that he cannot physically take stage outside his confinements, appear at rallies in multiple locations, appear in-person at the Convention in Wisconsin (or any other state outside of his confinement), or feasibly or tangibly be formally Inaugurated as President in 2025 and/or serve in the White House as POTUS in DC, because he would be physically incarcerated and barred from all such activities.
It would be a no-brainer to award the nomination to the candidate who receives the highest number of delegates in the primary -AND- is free to serve as President and not incarcerated. Even Fetterman would be smart enough to think of that.
Regardless of Trump’s hamstrung ability to campaign from prison, Republicans will not take away the nomination from him, because they do not want their families under constant death threats from the -eating, cousin- ing crackers that make up the GOP base.
you're trying to apply logic to your party. It doesn't work that way. The rage base is set in stone. Giving the nomination to anyone else is guaranteeing an L in the general.
At the very least he'd pull a 2020 senate runoff and tell his bird base to stay home since everything is rigged
Allowing a ing inmate in a prison to be the nominee is guaranteeing an enormous L in the general. Like you might see Nebraska and Kansas go blue type of L in the general.
I don't think he does that. It's something they'd consider, but most of his base do have brains at the end of the day and while they'd be enraged for months, they would come home and vote red no matter who at the end of the day in November. Much superior to nominating someone who is incarcerated long term.
Trump from prison would win every state he won in 2020 except maybe North Carolina.
Of course Trump does that. Trump only ever cares about himself. He called primaries he lost “rigged” back in 2016. He doesn’t change. He can’t change.
Most of his base has brains?
I think you’re wishcasting what you want to be true, not what has been manifestly true for going on a decade now.
Which is losing, but I don't even buy that. He'd win Florida big, sure, it's much further to the right of what it was in 2020, since all the conservatives from blue and purple states moving there during covid. (The current census and electoral college vastly underestimates that state's current population for the same reason.) Florida is also a state that loves its jail people. It's a state that has a rich history of jail people being successful.
But I believe in a run from prison scenario he would lose Texas, NC, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska (except NE-03), Kansas, ME-02, Montana, potentially Alaska, possibly Missouri, and every other state he lost in 2020. Maybe Biden could win the Deep South as well.
Let me stop you right there.
Trump’s being a criminal is a FEATURE, not a bug, to the GOP base. On the one hand, they can play it up as his being a persecuted victim (they literally compare him to Jesus!); on the other hand, deep down they want a leader who isn’t bound by any rules or norms and who this can make radical things happen.
What do you think their motivations are? Low taxes?
They want their enemies crushed. You really think Ron DeSantis is that guy?
Think Kari Lake. Mike Flynn. That’s who’s next in line.
Pardoning Nixon was already a huge mistake by the repugs
Not jailing trash will be another huge mistake
And that 1 split electoral vote in Maine maybe
Oh and Utah too. I forgot Utah. Without Trump, nobody will bother primarying out Romney the way Trump did to Liz Cheney in a similar deep-red interior mountain West state. Romney will endorse and campaign for Biden over the inmate. That state will go blue in '24 too.
You're talking about QAnon and Ultra Maga. You're vastly overestimating the size of the "only-Trump" base.Let me stop you right there.
Trump’s being a criminal is a FEATURE, not a bug, to the GOP base. On the one hand, they can play it up as his being a persecuted victim (they literally compare him to Jesus!); on the other hand, deep down they want a leader who isn’t bound by any rules or norms and who this can make radical things happen.
What do you think their motivations are? Low taxes?
They want their enemies crushed. You really think Ron DeSantis is that guy?
Think Kari Lake. Mike Flynn. That’s who’s next in line.
The vast majority of Trump voters aren't the religious zealot nutjobs with Trump-face tattoos and Trump paraphernalia all over their cars and homes etc. The vast majority of those that voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, are in fact, regular Republicans that don't like Biden, Obama, Clintons, or the Democrats in general. Soft voters. Voters that will stay home in a scenario where the GOP nominee is a guy literally rotting in a jail cell.
Wisconsin, the state the GOP is most targeting in 2024 (and for good reason) is a prime example of that. The average GOP voter there is a soft voter whose everyday life isn't consumed by religion, politics, or the well-being of Trump. The rate of covid vaccination there is high too (unfortunately). They didn't turn out for Kelly in the state supreme court election and they won't turn out for Trump if he's incarcerated, either. Biden wins that state by 20+% in such a scenario tbh.
The Ultra MAGA / QAnon vote alone isn't even as large as the entire state of Wyoming in population.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 06-10-2023 at 03:24 PM.
And yet it's your only chance because he will continue to run no matter what your party does.
He is your problem until he dies and probably decades after.
If he doesn't get the nomination at the convention, simply put he isn't the nominee, regardless of how many delegates he wins in the primary. You understand how a convention and nomination process works, right? If he isn't the (R) or (D) nominee, he has zero shot at being president again, no matter what. It's a two-party country; that's it, and that's all. Sure, he can create a third party (not Libertarian, they have already sworn off Trump for multiple reasons) to spite the GOP and run as an independent, but realistically in that case he'll probably garner a maximum of 2-3% of the vote share, similar to Jo Jorgensen in 2020. Possibly even underperforming the Libertarian candidate.
Also, if he ever wants out of federal prison, he'd be sure as smart to not run third party, not shoot his only lifeline (The GOP) in the foot and to rather put his eggs all into the Desantis / (R) candidate basket, because Biden or whoever the (D) candidate is would never pardon him, while Desantis surely would and even most (R)s not as favorable to Trump such as even Pence or Haley would almost definitely pardon him as well.
Running third party against Desantis and sabotaging the GOP in 2024 would prove to the American public, including even some of his core base, that he really was never America First all along, but rather Trump-first and Trump-centric and nothing else but an autocentric megalomaniac.
Well no .
That's exactly what he would do. And he'd take a third of Republicans with him.
That's the fallacy. You're once again vastly overestimating the sheer size, or lack thereof, of the UltraMAGA QAnon population. Sure you see Trump rallies full and there's thousands of people there each time, but it's mostly 80-90% of the same people traveling every time. Regardless of whether it's in Florida or the Midwest or Southwest, it's the same exact people there every time. Sure those types are obnoxious and they are the most outspoken types in the entire GOP, similar to the alt-left squad progressiv types, but they are also the minority as well.
Very few locals to any given Trump rally really give a . All of his cult supporters travel with him, like Jonestown and . The average GOP voter will vote for Trump but they'd just as easily vote for the (R) candidate that isn't Trump, either.
As I've said before, there's roughly as many UltraMAGA only-Trump type voters in the entire USA as there are in the entire state of Wyoming. Enough for maybe 2% of the popular vote, realistically, and that is generous.
What's your proof? It will be easy to say Trump's base is whoever sticks with him through the primaries while he is indicted/on trial/convicted/imprisoned.
Indicted, on trial, even convicted? Plausibly.
Indicted means nothing.
On trial means nothing in a vacuum, either.
Convicted will be when things start to crack for him, depending on which and how many convictions.
Imprisoned is the tipping point. Will it be a token sentence like what Jussie Smollett got, a few days and then some months on house arrest and then pretty much nothing after that? Or will be sentenced to federal prison, on a jail campus and not house arrest, full-time, and forced to serve multiple years on a jail campus, through 2024 and years beyond, without access to the public, not to mention the RNC Convention next July?
There is a big and drastic difference in all of that.
Even if he wins the primary popular vote and/or delegate count by 30%, if he is not nominated by the RNC, then he is not the nominee. In that case, the Republican nominee will get >98% of the GOP vote, regardless of who they voted for in the primaries. The truth is that it is a two-party country and almost every voter is aware of that.
The average Trump voter, even the average Trump primary voter, understands the meaning of two-party system to the extent that they would turn out and vote for the primary winner regardless of it is the person they voted for in the primary or not. They're not ing voting third-party out of spite. Sure some ultra MAGA QAnon religious crazy types might but they're scarce as serial killers. And Trump isn't burning his bridge out of prison by running third party and sabotaging his best chance at a presidential pardon from a Desantis Administration that he would never get from a democratic admin.
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