Holting Pattern v1.1

[timvp]

Francisco Elson averaged 3 points per 48 minutes and had a grand total of zero blocks in the playoffs last year. And that's with him starting two games.

This is what a cheap 2-year contract gets you.

[violentkitten]

True, but if we can't even say that Elson > Malik, then we're left with trying to decide if 1 year of Nazr > two first-round picks.

I think that one is pretty easy.

right. the impetus for the trade was mohammed's contract expiring in '05. the spurs made that trade knowing that they wanted him to walk. awful. worst trade of the duncan era by the spurs.

[T Park]

We're doo--

Ah, I'll just make it my sig.

You'll just be accused of being an ownership asskisser so it falls on deaf ears anyways.

[LEONARD]

I knew there was a reason to stick around here for the summer...

You'd think the Spurs traded Duncan and deported Parker & Manu..

[Kori Ellis]

I knew there was a reason to stick around here for the summer...

You'd think the Spurs traded Duncan and deported Parker & Manu..

This is how it is here. Even the years that the Spurs won the le(s) the forum went crazy during free agency.

It's the SpursTalk Way.

[timvp]

Right now I'd rather have Malik Rose, David Lee and James White than Francisco Elson.

[Kori Ellis]

Right now I'd rather have Malik Rose, David Lee and James White than Francisco Elson.

I think everyone would agree on that. But the Spurs have none of them.

Not even Elson.

[Lebowski Brickowski]

I find myself believing more and more each day that Javtokas is a top tier NBA center. WTF is that about? It's because we're looking at

francisco ing elson

Jeez-o-whiz. I really really really really really really really really really HOPE
Javtokas can start and play well. Seriously, Angel Luv has a good point:

Who replaces Rasho? Who do we have that is better?

[violentkitten]

Right now I'd rather have Malik Rose, David Lee and James White than Francisco Elson.

but it's so good that malik is gone. it was worth those two picks and staring down the barrel of starting center francisco elson.

ARRRRRGiaug[lkafhg;aig;lhjag;lj

[wildbill2u]

Cuban spends AND reduced ticket prices for next season...

Cuban is a billionaire in a much bigger market. He can afford to do whatever he wan'ts. Holt and the SA investors are not in the same universe financially although they must compete there.

Maybe it's instructive that the Mavs have yet to win a championship despite expending millions and millions of dollars, sometimes extravagantly such as the payout to Finley which cost Cuban more than any of the Spurs owners are worth.

[violentkitten]

Cuban is a billionaire in a much bigger market. He can afford to do whatever he wan'ts. Holt and the SA investors are not in the same universe financially although they must compete there.

Maybe it's instructive that the Mavs have yet to win a championship despite expending millions and millions of dollars, sometimes extravagantly such as the payout to Finley which cost Cuban more than any of the Spurs owners are worth.

maybe the individual partners but not the corporate ones...

[timvp]

David Lee next to Tim Duncan would be so perfect. He's quick enough for the smallest of small ball, yet he rebounds well enough to handle the biggest teams.

Oh and James Flight White is a lockdown defender at three positions who can also do this.

[violentkitten]

David Lee next to Tim Duncan would be so perfect. He's quick enough for the smallest of small ball, yet he rebounds well enough to handle the biggest teams.

Oh and James Flight White is a lockdown defender at three positions who can also do this.

thats ok because tpark said so

[wildbill2u]

Like Scola? Who will probably never be a Spur?

Karaulov who is a bust?

Sanikidze who hasn't played basketball in a year?

Javtokas, who doesn't have a deal yet but was being reported a done deal?

I'm curious. Do you have any info on the success ratio of teams picking at 55 or lower in the draft over a period of years? The Spurs annual record of successes always relegates them to the nether regions of the draft.

Granted they've taken some long shots like Scola, Javtokas and Sanikidze who we have not been able to bring to the club so far and may never pan out.

But what major players have they hit with their picks? What major players have they missed out on by taking these guys at the end of the draft?

[MI21]

Ugggh, James White.

I've been following his career since he lost to David Lee in the McDonals All American Dunk Comp. I thought he wasn't going to turn into much at first, but dude can really play and would be the perfect versatile defender for the Spurs.

Damn.

[picnroll]

Players like Reggie Evans, Jackie Butler and Darius Songaila can probably be had with a solid 2-year, $11M offer. If you are going to give 2-years, you are going to have to make it up with money.

There's no excuse to blow half the MLE on Francisco Freakin' Elson.

I suspect Evans and Songalia would only be interested in long term deals unless you can way overpay on two years. Fitting the Holting Pattern the best bets are an old talented guy only intending to play ac ouple of years at most (Mourning) or a young talented guy who hasn't established himself enough to get a high paying long term deal (Butler).

[wildbill2u]

Offering Przybilla a 4-year deal and offering Zo a $3M deal were token moves. The Spurs knew there was no way in that they land the players offering what they were offering. I'm not sure what the motive was. Maybe they were just praying for a miracle.

Does anyone think Pop would have made a offer to Zo that was realistically possible

I mean, you have an over-age center who plays backup now, but with a team that gave him a chance after a life-threatening kidney transplant and with whom he won his only championship.

I don't believe for a minute that ZO would consider leaving Miami with that history behind him and his loyalty and reputation at stake. It'd have to be a lollapalooza of an offer to make him forsake that team.

[timvp]

I'm curious. Do you have any info on the success ratio of teams picking at 55 or lower in the draft over a period of years? The Spurs annual record of successes always relegates them to the nether regions of the draft.

Granted they've taken some long shots like Scola, Javtokas and Sanikidze who we have not been able to bring to the club so far and may never pan out.

But what major players have they hit with their picks? What major players have they missed out on by taking these guys at the end of the draft?

When you are picking 50 and up, there is like a 5% chance that player lasts in the league for two years. So yeah, the Spurs have been great at drafting late.

The only questionable picks are Chris Carrawell over Michael Redd and more recently, Sanikidze over Trevor Ariza. But Ginobili, Javtokas and Scola were by far the best on the board in that area.

[Marcus Bryant]

timvp and Marcus Bryant will be accepting apologies from Holtlickers from 2 to 4 PM CDT this afternoon in the Club.

[Mr. Body]

We're at the point Los Angeles was when we finally knocked them off in 2004 - they had late draft picks that were turning up the likes of Brian Cook, Medvedenko, Luke Walton, and had to plug roster holes with decrepit old farts like Brian Cook. I was watching the 2003 Championship DVD the other night, you know the clenching Game 6s, and it struck me how awful most of their roster was. Just guys who shouldn't have been playing.

I fear we're at that point. The NBA is built so success is hard to maintain over a long period of time. You get draft picks very late in the draft and naturally your role players age to where their trade value is nil while their productivity lapses. It is very difficult to keep it up after that.

The Bulls were able to rejuvenate after MJ came back because we traded them Rodman and they stole Kukoc from Europe, filling in pieces here and there (the Bison Deles of the world). Los Angeles kept it up one year longer because they got Payton and Malong to come over for relative peanuts.

We're in the same situation. We have few assets and we've had years of either bad drafts or no drafts at all (mostly the latter). Giving up 2 draft picks for NY taking Malik might be really hurting. Sanikidze is a longshot. At least we have Javtokas, who might be mediocre, if anything. Next year, we're counting on a 28-30 first round draft pick and two second rounders.

It's looking tough.

[picnroll]

timvp and Marcus Bryant will be accepting apologies from Holtlickers from 2 to 4 PM CDT this afternoon in the Club.

I wanted Arenas in Holting Pattern V1.0 so no apology from me.

[timvp]

We're at the point Los Angeles was when we finally knocked them off in 2004 - they had late draft picks that were turning up the likes of Brian Cook, Medvedenko, Luke Walton, and had to plug roster holes with decrepit old farts like Brian Cook. I was watching the 2003 Championship DVD the other night, you know the clenching Game 6s, and it struck me how awful most of their roster was. Just guys who shouldn't have been playing.

I fear we're at that point. The NBA is built so success is hard to maintain over a long period of time. You get draft picks very late in the draft and naturally your role players age to where their trade value is nil while their productivity lapses. It is very difficult to keep it up after that.

The Bulls were able to rejuvenate after MJ came back because we traded them Rodman and they stole Kukoc from Europe, filling in pieces here and there (the Bison Deles of the world). Los Angeles kept it up one year longer because they got Payton and Malong to come over for relative peanuts.

We're in the same situation. We have few assets and we've had years of either bad drafts or no drafts at all (mostly the latter). Giving up 2 draft picks for NY taking Malik might be really hurting. Sanikidze is a longshot. At least we have Javtokas, who might be mediocre, if anything. Next year, we're counting on a 28-30 first round draft pick and two second rounders.

It's looking tough.

I don't buy it. The Spurs are a couple moves from being right back at the top. Get a good player next to Tim (Evans, Butler even Songaila), get a young wing (Ariza, Woods) and a backup point (Pargo) and the Spurs are as good as ever.

Problem is the Spurs are being cheap and look like they will instead sign the Nuggets 13th man to start at center.

[Mr. Body]

I don't buy it. The Spurs are a couple moves from being right back at the top. Get a good player next to Tim (Evans, Butler even Songaila), get a young wing (Ariza, Woods) and a backup point (Pargo) and the Spurs are as good as ever.

Problem is the Spurs are being cheap and look like they will instead sign the Nuggets 13th man to start at center.

I didn't mean to say they're at the end of their dominance, but that there are clear problems without a lot of solutions. There are no visible replacements for Bowen, Barry, Finley, or Horry, and within two years all four of those guys are going to disappear, if not all of them. The draft picks would have helped, but maybe not.

I'm absolutely with you -- I would love Ariza on the team, Evans would be more than fine, etc., but I'm also fearing they'll sit back on their haunches and do nothing productive. We might eek through another year with what we have, but beyond that it looks skeletal.

[timvp]

The Spurs have the resources to get these guys. They just have to forget about this clearing cap space for 2009-10 crap.

Win now.

[strangeweather]

We're at the point Los Angeles was when we finally knocked them off in 2004 - they had late draft picks that were turning up the likes of Brian Cook, Medvedenko, Luke Walton, and had to plug roster holes with decrepit old farts like Brian Cook.

Certainly, some of that was that being really good leaves you no money for FA signings and increases the degree of difficulty in drafting dramatically.

But let's not forget the other side of the coin -- Mitch Kupchak is a horrible, horrible GM.