Ludden: Spurs wait on Knicks' reply

[objective]

So you propose an 8-man team?

That would buy some tractors....

lol, pointing out that Rasho was nowhere to be found in the 05 playoffs (along with Massenburg) equates to proposing an 8 man team.

[exstatic]

what's so hard to understand that both FAs and 2nd round draftees can refuse NBA deals and stay in Europe? No difference there. Neither is bound by salary rankings like 1st rounders. Only difference is that one can sign with anyone and the other can't. So what?

That's a big difference. For instance, if Butler had received no offers, he would have had to either play for $900K in NY or go to Europe. Because he can negotiate with multiple teams, his price more than doubled.

As for Euros, I recognize that either FAs or second rounders can refuse a deal and go to europe, BUT, the major difference is that FAs can negotiate with multiple NBA teams and drive their price up. They have multiple avenues into the NBA where the draft pick has only one. The Spurs (mistakenly) paid Oberto $2.5M because he probably had other NBA offers. Jav and Scola don't have that option.

[strangeweather]

The Spurs (mistakenly) paid Oberto $2.5M because he probably had other NBA offers. Jav and Scola don't have that option.

Oberto also had a much longer resume (and a higher pay scale) than Javtokas in Europe.

It may be that Javtokas's agent thought Oberto set the market value, despite the points you've made to the contrary. The Spurs thought it was the LLE. Result: impasse.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Only difference is that one can sign with anyone and the other can't. So what?

The very obvious 'so what' is that free agents can negotiate deals with multiple NBA teams and increase their market value.

Those second rounders you speak of are stuck talking to the team that drafted them.

BIG difference.

[objective]

The Spurs (mistakenly) paid Oberto $2.5M because he probably had other NBA offers.

He was said to be close to signing with Memphis when the Spurs dropped the Scola negotiations and swooped in to sign Oberto

[Quadzilla99]

It may be that Javtokas's agent thought Oberto set the market value, despite the points you've made to the contrary. The Spurs thought it was the LLE. Result: impasse.

That's exactly what I was saying. That deal may have put their side on one position and the Spurs on the other side, on your position. You keep saying your side is right. But they would probably refer to the Oberto deal and say look what you did here etc. etc.

I'm not saying who is right just what each side may have been thinking.

[FromWayDowntown]

I still think that there's a missing step in the arguments that Mr. Body and others are making here. My point in my earlier post is one about relative values. I think it's quite plausible that the Spurs made a calculation in deciding how to dole out offers after the initial talks with Przybilla and Mourning. That calculation went something like: in this market, the 2 we can live with are Butler and Elson. We'll offer both and see what happens. They made Javtokas a third option, but I think they decided that if Javtokas wasn't willing to take what was offered, the difference between Javtokas and anyone else who might be available is marginal. They may end up being wrong about it, but it sure looks to me like that was how this went down. They asked Javtokas to cool out and see what happened, understanding that he might not and accepting the fact that they might have to look to a domestic player to fill that other big man slot. But I suspect that they've concluded that the difference between Javtokas and another domestic big man is fairly close to zero.

If that's true, there is no miscommunication and the only error might arise in a talent evaluation sense, but that's something that we won't know until RJ plays a season in the NBA. For all we know, the Spurs think they can get sufficient contributions -- contributions that would at least be commensurate with what they might expect from Javtokas -- from someone like Lonny Baxter or Jake Voskuhl (I'm not suggesting that either is a target, just trying to provide examples) -- and are willing to explore those avenues if the Butler and/or Elson offers are matched.

[Mr. Body]

FWD, this sounds very reasonable. We're trying to guess at what happened behind closed doors. At this point I'm very afraid we wind up with Elson and only Elson. They must have thought the chance for Butler was very high. I can accept that - I hope so.

[MannyIsGod]

Godamn dude. At least 3 people have tried to tell you what FWD did and you finally got it.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Godamn dude. At least 3 people have tried to tell you what FWD did and you finally got it.

July 15, 2006. Another rare day where Manny and AHF are thinking the same thing

[Mr. Body]

Godamn dude. At least 3 people have tried to tell you what FWD did and you finally got it.

I was only hypothesizing what happened. His account is markedly different than the "RJ was a GREEDY BAS and WOULDN'T TAKE the MLE HE WAS OFFERED" hysterics some of you guys are pounding. I'm willing to accept his views because it makes a lot more sense.

For the record, I don't think you or AHF have been close to right on this issue at all.

[Mr. Body]

But I suspect that they've concluded that the difference between Javtokas and another domestic big man is fairly close to zero.

However, if this is true, FWD, then why not sign the sure thing in RJ rather than chase after RFAs? It must come back to Javtokas being lowballed, them trying to get him to accept close to the LLE, which to me is unacceptable.

... And we go round n round...

[ChumpDumper]

It must come back to the Spurs not having as high an opinon of Javtokas' worth as message board posters.

[timvp]

So far, we know option A was Ben Wallace, option B was Joel Przybilla, option C was Alonzo Mourning, option D and E were Francisco Elson and Jackie Butler. We assume option F is Javtokas, but we don't know.

After Butler is matched (), if they have someone else lined up then we'll never know who real option F was.

[MannyIsGod]

Man, I'm too tired to go back and quote you my posts, but if you'd like to go back and reread them - slowly this time - maybe you'll see I've made the exact same posts FWD did.

[Kori Ellis]

It must come back to the Spurs not having as high an opinon of Javtokas' worth as message board posters.

True.

It was the same for Scola.

I believe the scenario was like this ... the initial talks with Javtokas included numbers that were lower than he had anticipated but no official offer was extended. When Javtokas/agent scoffed at the discussion, negotiations were stalled. The Spurs simultaneous looked around at other options and decided to make a stab at two restricted free agents. The Spurs called Jav/agent and said they were going in another direction. Jav's agent said in the press they were "surprised". Spurs probably thought Jav would wait around until they finished with RFA's to see what would happen. He didn't and jumped at an opportunity with Greece. Greece only gave him an NBA out clause through yesterday. He is officially signed in Greece. End of Jav to the Spurs discussions for 06-07.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

However, if this is true, FWD, then why not sign the sure thing in RJ rather than chase after RFAs? It must come back to Javtokas being lowballed, them trying to get him to accept close to the LLE, which to me is unacceptable.

... And we go round n round...

1. Where is Air Gay coming from in this situation?

2. Air Gay (Jefferson) is overrated, so I'm glad we didn't think about signing him.

3. Javtokas getting low balled is your opinion, not a fact, and until he comes to the NBA and proves his worth one way or another, you are sorely misguided in saying that we lowballed him.

them trying to get him to accept close to the LLE, which to me is unacceptable.

... And we go round n round...

You could have saved everyone a lot of time and just said you've got your head too far up Javtokas' ass to be reasonable about him.

Just curious, what do you think was 'acceptable'? The whole MLE?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

to me is unacceptable.

Herb Rudoy = Mr. Body?

[Mr. Body]

True.

It was the same for Scola.

I believe the scenario was like this ... the initial talks with Javtokas included numbers that were lower than he had anticipated but no official offer was extended. When Javtokas/agent scoffed at the discussion, negotiations were stalled. The Spurs simultaneous looked around at other options and decided to make a stab at two restricted free agents. The Spurs called Jav/agent and said they were going in another direction. Jav's agent said in the press they were "surprised". Spurs probably thought Jav would wait around until they finished with RFA's to see what would happen. He didn't and jumped at an opportunity with Greece. Greece only gave him an NBA out clause through yesterday. He is officially signed in Greece. End of Jav to the Spurs discussions for 06-07.

Peace be unto you. This is exactly what I think happened.

[FromWayDowntown]

However, if this is true, FWD, then why not sign the sure thing in RJ rather than chase after RFAs? It must come back to Javtokas being lowballed, them trying to get him to accept close to the LLE, which to me is unacceptable.

... And we go round n round...

You've still not gotten my point, at least in that regard. My supposition is that the Spurs think Elson > Javtokas and that Butler > Javtokas. I suspect, furthermore that the Spurs think Javtokas <= the remaining unrestricted free agent big men.

If you want to quibble with their talent evaluations, fine. I'm inclined to buy their view of relative talents because someone pays them obscene amounts of money to make those decisions and they've generally been pretty good in their calls.

But assuming the last of my premises is correct (the Spurs think Javtokas <= other UFAs) then why on Earth would it ever make sense for the Spurs to offer him anything beyond what they would offer those sorts of players?

[Mr. Body]

I don't think they were. They would offer Javtokas only as much as they offered Butler. Maybe a little less, but that's why they wanted him to stay tuned until Butler was matched or wasn't.

If you're saying Javtokas is evaluated as worse than the rest of the UFAs, that I doubt. They've stated they would have wanted to revive negotiations with him once Elson or Butler fell through, which indicates he's rated higher than anybody left (the Lorenzen Wrights of the world).

[FromWayDowntown]

I don't think they were. They would offer Javtokas only as much as they offered Butler. Maybe a little less, but that's why they wanted him to stay tuned until Butler was matched or wasn't.

If you're saying Javtokas is evaluated as worse than the rest of the UFAs, that I doubt. They've stated they would have wanted to revive negotiations with him once Elson or Butler fell through, which indicates he's rated higher than anybody left (the Lorenzen Wrights of the world).

I'm not sure I'd make that deduction from what has been said. And I can't see this front office, in this climate, overpaying a guy like Javtokas. If they had offered him, for instance, the LLE and then caved in to give him some part of the MLE, they'd be setting an awfully bad precedent. As much as the front office is castigated in some corners for being cheap, I can't see a desperation move with a guy like Javtokas, which would result in the Spurs being seen as frivolous when pushed to the point of desperation. Like I say, I suspect that the Spurs believe that the replacement value of Javtokas lingers somewhere around the existing talent level among the remaining free agents. And that makes me wonder why we're spending so much time discussing this.

[Mr. Body]

We're not sure how much the initial offer was, whether it was around the LLE or not. Offering him more at some later point wouldn't be seen as 'caving'; it would simply be the next stage in a negotiation. The Spurs put the negotiations on hold in order to go another direction with the RFAs, desiring for him to wait. If one of them got matched, they would continue negotiations with him.

The other point I disagree with you is in ranking the players. I believe they do not consider Elson as better than Butler or Javtokas, but see him as the more experienced player who can start right away, and possibly through the season. (I believe at that point they will try to trade the last year of his contract.) The ranking, as I see it, is:

1. Butler
2. Javtokas
3. Elson

A better way to look at it may be, there was the experienced Elson, and then a pick of Butler or Javtokas (Butler might be ranked much higher than Javtokas). Not getting their number 1, they'd go for number 2. They always knew they'd get #3.

Anyway, we'll never know. At this point we can only hope they get Butler.

[Supergirl]

A few additional thoughts;
1. Whether or not Elson, Butler, or Javtokas is better big picture, we won't know for a couple years. Whether or not Javtokas will be best for NEXT YEAR, we can probably predict that the Spurs management is right in guessing he won't - simply because the learning curve for European players is usually a couple years. I might expect Oberto to better than Javtokas (or Scola) in his first year, simply because he has a year ahead of them in adjusting.

2. When the Spurs first started drafting foreign players, I think that it was assumed that of course they would jump at the opportunity to play in the NBA, because the NBA was so much better than the rest of the world. They had the Dream Team, and had always dominated the world basketball scene. But in the last few years, sparked by our own Manu Ginobili, things have changed. It doesn't seem that foreign players are as eager to come over here, and I think the perception has changed, so that now other teams are considered equally viable for gold medals and success. This may hurt the Spurs in the short term, since they've banked on a couple different foreign players in the past few years. So far the last two (Scola, Javtokas) haven't worked out, but of course the two before that (Parker, Manu) have worked out splendidly.

[furry_spurry]

I believe the scenario was like this ... the initial talks with Javtokas included numbers that were lower than he had anticipated but no official offer was extended. When Javtokas/agent scoffed at the discussion, negotiations were stalled. The Spurs simultaneous looked around at other options and decided to make a stab at two restricted free agents. The Spurs called Jav/agent and said they were going in another direction. Jav's agent said in the press they were "surprised". Spurs probably thought Jav would wait around until they finished with RFA's to see what would happen. He didn't and jumped at an opportunity with Greece. Greece only gave him an NBA out clause through yesterday. He is officially signed in Greece. End of Jav to the Spurs discussions for 06-07.

Good explanation. I DO think that the Spurs expressed a great deal of interest in Robertas and that led him to believe- possibly incorrectly- that the Spurs valued him more than they apparently did. Maybe, he felt a little bit "led on." I also believe that the Spurs anticipated having a starting center in place and being able to bring Robertas in as a back-up, but that did not materialize when Rasho was traded- Nazr left- and Przybilla said no. I am assuming the Spurs wanted someone who had NBA starting experience, even if that was Francisco Elson. I am also guessing Tim wanted someone to play center.