Hawks have overwhelming possibilities
By Jeff Schultz | Wednesday, May 23, 2007, 12:09 AM
The Atlanta Journal-Cons ution
There is probably something wrong with a league’s draft system when the fortunes of a franchise can turn on a bunch of pingpong balls.
Then again, if you’re the Hawks, maybe you prefer luck to the science of player selection because, as we have seen, this franchise’s science has blown up way too many laboratories.
In theory, through sheer luck, the NBA’s punch-line franchise took a step toward respectability Tuesday night. The Hawks fell into the third pick in the draft lottery. It means they get to keep a selection that had been gift-wrapped for the Phoenix Suns in the Joe Johnson trade (which suddenly looks pretty good). They also will get, as anticipated, the 11th overall pick from Indiana.
Two of the top 11 picks.
Celebrate the potential.
Or cover your eyes.
The first pick would have been a slam dunk: Greg Oden.
The second pick would have been even easier: Kevin Durant.
The third pick is a decision.
Do you want a decision?
These are the Hawks. This is Billy Knight. Visionaries, they haven’t been.
Two of the top 11 picks.
Great. I think.
This is like giving a mechanic $50,000 to build a car. Either you end up with a really nice car, or the engine stalls when you turn on the wiper blades. Kind of depends on the mechanic, and the blueprint, and the vision.
The Hawks can take Brandan Wright. Love the talent but disappeared in the tournament for North Carolina. They can take Al Horford. Really good player, but so good that he’s the third overall pick? They can take Mike Conley: Unbelievably quick, and a point guard, but was that overachievement in the tournament or actual career foreshadowing?
Two of the top 11 picks.
Two more decisions.
Pepto, anyone?
Why couldn’t it have been easy? Orlando fell into Shaquille O’Neal. San Antonio fell into David Robinson and Tim Duncan. Cleveland fell into LeBron James.
The Hawks just fall.
Portland won the lottery. The Trail Blazers were represented Tuesday by Brandon Roy. Hawks fans couldn’t miss the irony. Last year, Knight selected Shelden Williams with the fifth overall selection. Roy went to the Blazers with the next pick. He just won Rookie of the Year.
Williams was below average. He just got engaged to Candace Parker. Soon, he may not even be the best player in his house.
We all believed Knight was wrong when he drafted Boris Diaw in 2003. Turns out he was right about the player but wrong about the uniform. Diaw has been a jewel for Phoenix. Knight also drafted Josh Childress over Luol Deng in 2004, and Marvin Williams over two impact point guards, Deron Williams and Chris Paul, in 2005.
There was only a 38 percent chance of the Hawks landing in the top three, a 13 percent chance of picking third. So something broke right. Just not right enough.
As he was about to board a flight for New Jersey on Tuesday, Dominique Wilkins said he was wearing his lucky tie and commented: “The lottery can change the course of a franchise. We’re overdue for some luck.”
No. What they’re overdue for is some intelligence.
This hasn’t been a run of brilliance. The Hawks have gone eight seasons without making the playoffs. They are 97-231 over the past four years, which means Knight needs a 134-game winning streak to pull even for his tenure. (Yes, that would be record.)
In fairness to Knight (why not?), he merely is upholding a franchise standard. Drafts usually blow up with this team. In 1975, the Hawks had the first and third overall selections. They took David Thompson and Marvin Webster. Both opted for the ABA.
In 14 drafts from 1985 to 1998 — between Kevin Willis and Jason Terry — the Hawks’ first round went like this: Jon Koncak, Billy Thompson (traded for Ken Barlow), Dallas Comegys, no pick, Roy Marble, Rumeal Robinson, Stacey Augmon, Adam Keefe, Doug Edwards, no pick, Alan Henderson, Priest Lauderdale, Ed Gray and Roshown McLeod.
I realize it’s a lot easier to draft in hindsight. But should two “no picks” look so good over that span?
And now this: two of the top 11 picks.
Think of the possibilities.
Maybe not.