DMN's Colishaw: Spurs, others have "no chance" of beating Mavs or Suns in playoffs

[Rummpd]

Wake me when this anomaly ever has a parade or a banner that means something.

[MannyIsGod]

The error would be in determining p, not the subsequent calculation.

You don't seem to put very much faith in math.

If the probability of flipping heads is 1/2, then the probability of flipping heads 8 times in a row is (1/2)^8 = 1/256. If you throw 8 coins on the floor, you have a 1/256 chance of getting 8 heads. In other words, If you throw them on the floor, pick them up, throw them again, pick them up, throw them again, etc. and repeat this for a few years, you will be astonished to find that you got 8 heads almost exactly once every 256 tries. The accuracy of the prediction has nothing to do with the fact that we're using 8 coins. The prediction will always be accurate. That's why we do math.

"You know that's a large underestimation"? Ha! No, I actually know it to be pretty spot on. What we've been talking about is a version that's a little more complicated since the probability isn't 1/2, but it's not really any different.

I understand the math completely. The math is fundemental to what I do every day and you seem to misunderstand that with such a small sample you're liable to get wild results. You yourself pointd out that the averages don't come for YEARS.

Also - it is possible to flip a coin for YEARS and get heads each and everytime. The math does not say that is impossible, only that it is imporbable. You seem to misunderstand that you are establishing a probability and nothing more.

[Agloco]

Say the other half of your conclusion then.

"I believe the Mavs are lucky, to the point of 1 in 100, 1000, or maybe even 5000."

It is mathematically impossible for them to be lucky within reason AND without any special kind of skill. The numbers speak for themselves.

Save the odds for the poker table where luck regins supreme at the end of the day........

Skill decides basketball games, not random chance.

The Mavs are playing lights out right now, end of story. Put your damm stats book up already.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Sorry, Agloco, I'm just getting frustrated at middle-finger's ignorance.

The probability of throwing 8 coins on the floor and getting 8 heads is 1/256, whether it's your first try or your 9999999999th try. But it seems like he's saying that the probability is different in each case because "the sample size is small" which makes no sense.

[DubMcDub]

It's so pathetic to listen to middle finger clamor on and on about how the Mavs may be "lucky". Talk about letting your emotions and your hopes get in the way of rational thought.

[Agloco]

Sorry, Agloco, I'm just getting frustrated at middle-finger's ignorance.

The probability of throwing 8 coins on the floor and getting 8 heads is 1/256, whether it's your first try or your 9999999999th try. But it seems like he's saying that the probability is different in each case because "the sample size is small" which makes no sense.

I hate all of that anyway, it's why I stuck to medical physics. Screw statistical mechanics.

Already on ESPN I'm seeing questions about where the Mavericks rank among the all time great teams. It's too early for any of that , and too early for any of this statistical crap either.

Plain and vanilla: If the Mavericks continue to play like they have during the past 55 games, they will win the championship. Simple.

I don't think they can keep it up though........

[mabber]

I hate all of that anyway, it's why I stuck to medical physics. Screw statistical mechanics.

Already on ESPN I'm seeing questions about where the Mavericks rank among the all time great teams. It's too early for any of that , and too early for any of this statistical crap either.

Plain and vanilla: If the Mavericks continue to play like they have during the past 55 games, they will win the championship. Simple.

I don't think they can keep it up though........

Media needs stuff to talk/write about. A team on a hot streak makes that much easier for them to fill up space and air time.

[Obstructed_View]

But it seems like he's saying that the probability is different in each case because "the sample size is small" which makes no sense.

If there's a 50% probability that a coin will be heads, does that mean it lands on its edge if you only flip it once?

[MannyIsGod]

Sorry, Agloco, I'm just getting frustrated at middle-finger's ignorance.

The probability of throwing 8 coins on the floor and getting 8 heads is 1/256, whether it's your first try or your 9999999999th try. But it seems like he's saying that the probability is different in each case because "the sample size is small" which makes no sense.

Is that really what I've been saying? Because I've said nothing of the sort. Apparently you're reading comprehension are a bit behind your math skills. What I've said is that with a small sample size you can achieve varying results that are no where near what they should be according to the numerical probability. You need to go through a large amount of tests before you get anywhere near where the probablity says you should be. Do you understand that?

[MannyIsGod]

I hate all of that anyway, it's why I stuck to medical physics. Screw statistical mechanics.

Already on ESPN I'm seeing questions about where the Mavericks rank among the all time great teams. It's too early for any of that , and too early for any of this statistical crap either.

Plain and vanilla: If the Mavericks continue to play like they have during the past 55 games, they will win the championship. Simple.

I don't think they can keep it up though........

Don't tell him that - tell you sample size means . Apparently the there is no devation from the probability - ever.

[MannyIsGod]

If there's a 50% probability that a coin will be heads, does that mean it lands on its edge if you only flip it once?

Owned.