I'll engage you for a moment here. I actually think that Phoenix will have a more difficult time defending the Spurs in a playoff series now that they don't have Marion's length and athletcism available to deal with Parker. As I see it, the Suns have 3 choices to deal with the Spurs' backcourt: (1) play Bell on Parker (to deal with the head of the snake, so to speak), play Hill on Manu and play Nash on Bowen; (2) play Hill on Parker (to use length) while keeping Bell on Manu and Nash on Bowen; (3) play Barbosa a lot on Parker and go smaller in the backcourt with Nash on Bowen and either Hill or Bell on Manu (with the other sitting on the bench). I don't think it's feasible for the Suns to think that they can beat the Spurs with Nash on Parker at all. From there, I also don't think that option 3 makes much sense for the Suns, because even with his speed, Barbosa has shown absolutely no ability to deter Parker's drives, so I'll call it the least likely option. Honestly, I think D'Antoni is most likely to take course #2, if only because Bell has shown himself to be a decent defender against Manu at times; but in choosing that option, D'Antoni also has to realize that while Grant Hill's story is heartwarming, he's not the athlete that Shawn Marion is and that, if Parker is healthy, there's little chance that Hill can deny him penetration for long stretches of a playoff series. The Spurs' offense starts from there -- if Parker is able to drive, he creates chaos for the defense and opportunities for his teammates, even if he doesn't play as a traditional point might. So Parker drives and gets into the middle. Shaq, who is ostensibly defending Duncan (as Stoudemire has shown little ability to do that effectively and without getting himself into foul trouble) comes off to deny Parker's teardrop and forces the dish to Duncan who is either uncontested -- particularly if Oberto/Elson/Horry is lifted -- or who is defended by a little guy who is going to either concede the layup or take the foul. If the little guy comes down on Duncan, the Spurs' three-point shooters are now dealing with a scrambling defense that is rotating like crazy to catch-up from the help and can be beaten for an open look by a skip pass or two. Obviously, it won't work every time down the floor, but it should afford the Spurs plenty of opportunities to find easy buckets. With that, if D'Antoni's strategy is to play Shaq on Duncan for long minutes, Tim is going to make the Big Fella work and has a decent chance to get him into foul trouble (noteworthy given Shaq's inability to stay out of foul trouble earlier this season). If D'Antoni doesn't play Shaq on Duncan, his choices are to use Stoudemire (a choice that has rarely been profitable for Phoenix) or to play Diaw, which makes the Suns take another shooter off the floor. I'll take those matchups. Not saying the Spurs dominate them, but I do think there are plenty of opportunities there for the Spurs.
Offensively, if Phoenix goes big with Shaq, Amare, and Diaw, they're basically down to 2 bombers if they play Bell at the 2 (Bell and Nash) or 1 if they play Hill at the 2. That means that they aren't spreading the floor as they used to, making it much, much easier for the Spurs to play their team defensive concepts. If they stay relatively small and use Diaw with Skinner to spell Shaq and Amare, the Spurs can, I think, get away with giving Shaq only token doubles and daring the Suns to feed him all night. I certainly respect Shaq and his ability at this point, but I don't think he's the guy who's going to get 40 if he's given single-coverage all night long. That is to say that I don't think Shaq disrupts the defense as much as he used to. Where Shaq can make a big difference for the Suns in by drawing fouls early in quarters and getting the Suns into the bonus early so that little touch fouls on Nash or their other good FT shooters will put them on the line. He gives them a bail-out option in halfcourt sets, too, but if the Suns are playing in a lot of halfcourt sets, I'd say that works to the Spurs' advantage anyway.
I need to get some work done, but I'll try to get some thoughts about the Lakers -- who strike me as far more formidable -- later.
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