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Both NAM and GFS are now saying that SA isn't going to get jack squat from Rita.
Yes. Both NAM and GFS show Rita heading east.
Both NAM and GFS are now saying that SA isn't going to get jack squat from Rita.
That's not true....we've gotten a load of birds. At 281 & Jones Maltsberger...all I can say......I'm just glad I closed my sunroof.:vomit
A real load, eh?
I guess I could have phrased that... "We got a lot of birds that were full of ."
Until they show some consistency with every run I will believe it.
Well, the NAM 12Z has started...let's see what it says this time...
It took my sister "only" 14 hours yesterday to get from Houston to SA. She wandered on back roads north of I10. People staying on I10 had it much worse.
I bet no matter what there will still be quite a few people in Houston when it hits. This evacuation plan (or lack of one) pretty much sucks.
What the did you expect? There are 5 million people in the metroplex. The ones that left early didn't have any problems. The ones that procrastinated and waited till the last minute all hit the road at the same time...
Yeah I thought it was kind of odd that the NAM changed so much, the previous few runs were similiar in bringing the storm south and to the west somewhat, then all of a sudden it goes east and slightly north in that last run. Guess we'll see what happens.
Spurminator had a good reply to that kind of criticism, too:
Duh.
My sister left about 4am yesterday, which is about 2 days ahead of the hurricane's landfall. That's hardly the last minute. Sure, people who left last week had no problems.
What happened is that a lot of people decided not to wait until today, which is more like your last minute.
YGBSM...
NAM shows Rita stalling hard about 12 hours from now...and turning left.
I think someone is yanking our chains...
OK, NAM is back to center-punching Galveston about 7AM tomorrow...
My point is that you criticized the "plan"...As I remember it they were recommending evacuation Monday in Galveston and low lying areas and Houston on Tuesday...My relatives boarded up Tuesday morning and left mid-day Tuesday and drove through with no problems. Anyone who has experienced a rush hour in Houston should know that if you wait till 2 days before impact to leave that the roads will be gridlocked.
Yeah, he was on Hannity yesterday...I posted something on that...
Hannity had Joe Bas i from AccuWeather on at the top of the hour...
He laid down his prediction...
Landfall Sat. between 3 and 6 AM, Galveston +/- 25 miles.
Up 45 to Dallas
Left hook down 35 to SA and Laredo
The best analogy that I have is it is like rats fleeing a shinking ship. It was solid gridlock on my little county highway that normally has 1-2 cars max at the 4-way stop.
There were approx. 200 cars around the diamond shamrock station on I10 in Luling this morning; I hate to think what the Love's and Buckees looked like just down the road on 183.
I sure hope all these people go back to Houston!
How do you come up with a bulletproof evacuation plan for 2+ million people over 48 hours? That's what I don't get. News of this hurricane wasn't sprung on everyone yesterday.
Psst! If you live by the Gulf of Mexico, you will have to worry about hurricanes - this should have been foreseen.
As of 10pm CDT Rita has winds of 135 mph with gusts to 160mph and the minimum pressure is 929mb.
If only they had a few hundred Spruce Mooses to line up at Hobby and Bush Intercontinental.
Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 24
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 23, 2005
Rita has weakened since yesterday. The eye is not as distinct and
the convection is not as intense as 24 hours ago. This is consistent
with the central pressure which has risen to around 927 mb and
winds have decreased. The initial intensity has been adjusted down
to 115 knots. Unless another eyewall cycle occurs that could bring
the winds temporarily up a little bit...the overall tendency is for
Rita to weaken gradually. So far the passage of Rita over the warm
eddy in the Gulf of Mexico has not resulted in intensification.
However...research suggests there is a lag in the atmospheric
response. Nevertherless...Rita is expected to make landfall as
category 3 or...a little less likely...category 4 intensity.
Upper-air data shows that the high pressure system controlling the
motion of the hurricane is already north and east of Rita and is
centered over Arkansas and Tennessee. Consequently...Rita has turned
more to the northwest and is now moving 310 degrees at 9 knots. No
significant change in track is anticipated before landfall near the
Upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coast early Saturday. Once
inland...the steering currents are forecast to collapse and Rita is
expected to move little over northeastern Texas and southwestern
Arkansas. Rita by then will likely produce torrential rains. The
official forecast follows very closely the model consensus.
Rita is a large hurricane and tropical storm force winds extend
outward a great distance. A sond dropped from a reconnaissance
plane measured 56 knots surface winds about 120 N mi west of the
eye.
Forecaster Avila
"Spruce Goose", I think.
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