De'Aaron Fox Rumors Suggest a Possible Trade to The Spurs

[Mugen]

Spurstalk imploding and the downfall of America, I was there for it tbh.

[ginobilized]

If we get Fox and keep Vassell, Devin becomes that Middleton-lite 3rd option that best suits him.
It will be fascinating and illuminating to see how this plays out.

[rjv]

These rumors have brought out the best of SpursTalk. This is the kind of debate I miss. WE ARE BACK BABY.

I wanted to share my thought (which are worth exactly nothing) on some things I've seen people say here and on the Spurs subreddit

1. Fox isn't even that good! He's barely even better than Vassell!

De'Aaron Fox has been a top-tier player essentially since the second season of his career (86th percentile in LEBRON and 92nd percentile in LEBRON WAR that year), and has been a 90+ percentile player for the last 3 seasons. Last season, he was 97th percentile in LEBRON and 98th percentile in LEBRON WAR. There are 450 NBA players at any given time, so that means using LEBRON as a proxy, Fox was definitionally a Top 15 player last season. The season before he was 94/95th percentile, meaning he was a Top 30 player. This year he is 90th/86th. Meaning he was a Top 45 player. Yes there is fluctuation year-to-year, this is true of any player, but Fox is consistently a Top 50 player overall.

He's also consistently a 90+ percentile offensive player using O-LEBRON as a proxy, Since his sop re season, he has been 90th, 93rd, 95th, 89th, 97th, 97th, 94th percentile in O-LEBRON. Long story short, he's an elite offensive player (and consistently so) and a top 25-30 player in the NBA (which corresponds to the Ringer's ranking of him as the 19th best player in the NBA).

Compare that to Devin, who has been a below median percentile player every year of his career other than his sop re season. 38, 69, 40, 37, 43. Devin is epitome of mid. Mid players are important too, and they may even be worth $27MM/yr. But they don't belong in the same breath as top players.

2. We can just wait until he is a free agent and sign him for free.

This is certainly subject to debate, but I think the odds are very low that Fox isn't traded somewhere and extended by the start of next season. Yes, his team is saying they'll only extend with San Antonio now, but they are trying to get to their preferred destination. At the end of the day, Fox isn't going to make All NBA this year so a SuperMax is out of the question. But a Max Extension with Bird Raises is 5/296 compared to a FA Max deal of 4/219. I seriously doubt Fox is going to hit free agency and leave $77 million on the table. This summer, if the Spurs don't pull the trigger, he'll become open to the idea of an extension with another team.

3. We should just wait for [Insert Player Here], he's better!

Some of these are not serious suggestions. Luka is also not going to be a Free Agent in the summer of 2026. He is not turning down a 5/35% supermax so that he can become a free agent and sign a 4/30% FA max. It's simply laughable to even believe this for a minute. Luka will sign a SuperMax this summer. He will be eligible to be traded 6 months after that. Could he demand a trade? Sure? Is there any reason to believe he will? Not serious ones. The same goes with Ant. You'll be waiting until 2029 to see if he demands a trade, because he won't do it before he secures a SuperMax. To my knowledge, Kawhi is the only player who has foregone a shoe-in SuperMax to force his way out.

But if by some 0.0001% chance happened and Luka was available next season or became a Free Agent... I could just see the posts now... "IDK about Luka, I really like Vassell I'm not sure he's worth giving up... and did you know that Shai is a Free Agent in 2027?" It's a never ending cycle. PATFO's Patience Grift has created an army of cultists who are always waiting to gamble on the next improbable scenario

4. But the mystery box could be a boat!

This one, I think actually has some merit. You don't want to be the team that traded away the pick that became Cooper Flagg or AJ Dyabantsa. But this is a solvable problem. Put Top-1 protection on the pick you send to SAC. I think anything beyond Top-1 is going a little too far, but Top-1 is reasonable. It will come with a cost however, you'll have maybe throw in a little sweetener to get that protection, but it's doable.

I look forward to this debate raging on!

if they could top #2 protect this year's picks and top #1 next year's, that would be amazing but i'm skeptical that SAC would yield to that.

also, you didn't mention the "not if it costs us Castle" position.

[DPG21920]

These rumors have brought out the best of SpursTalk. This is the kind of debate I miss. WE ARE BACK BABY.

I wanted to share my thought (which are worth exactly nothing) on some things I've seen people say here and on the Spurs subreddit

1. Fox isn't even that good! He's barely even better than Vassell!

De'Aaron Fox has been a top-tier player essentially since the second season of his career (86th percentile in LEBRON and 92nd percentile in LEBRON WAR that year), and has been a 90+ percentile player for the last 3 seasons. Last season, he was 97th percentile in LEBRON and 98th percentile in LEBRON WAR. There are 450 NBA players at any given time, so that means using LEBRON as a proxy, Fox was definitionally a Top 15 player last season. The season before he was 94/95th percentile, meaning he was a Top 30 player. This year he is 90th/86th. Meaning he was a Top 45 player. Yes there is fluctuation year-to-year, this is true of any player, but Fox is consistently a Top 50 player overall.

He's also consistently a 90+ percentile offensive player using O-LEBRON as a proxy, Since his sop re season, he has been 90th, 93rd, 95th, 89th, 97th, 97th, 94th percentile in O-LEBRON. Long story short, he's an elite offensive player (and consistently so) and a top 25-30 player in the NBA (which corresponds to the Ringer's ranking of him as the 19th best player in the NBA).

Compare that to Devin, who has been a below median percentile player every year of his career other than his sop re season. 38, 69, 40, 37, 43. Devin is epitome of mid. Mid players are important too, and they may even be worth $27MM/yr. But they don't belong in the same breath as top players.

2. We can just wait until he is a free agent and sign him for free.

This is certainly subject to debate, but I think the odds are very low that Fox isn't traded somewhere and extended by the start of next season. Yes, his team is saying they'll only extend with San Antonio now, but they are trying to get to their preferred destination. At the end of the day, Fox isn't going to make All NBA this year so a SuperMax is out of the question. But a Max Extension with Bird Raises is 5/296 compared to a FA Max deal of 4/219. I seriously doubt Fox is going to hit free agency and leave $77 million on the table. This summer, if the Spurs don't pull the trigger, he'll become open to the idea of an extension with another team.

3. We should just wait for [Insert Player Here], he's better!

Some of these are not serious suggestions. Luka is also not going to be a Free Agent in the summer of 2026. He is not turning down a 5/35% supermax so that he can become a free agent and sign a 4/30% FA max. It's simply laughable to even believe this for a minute. Luka will sign a SuperMax this summer. He will be eligible to be traded 6 months after that. Could he demand a trade? Sure? Is there any reason to believe he will? Not serious ones. The same goes with Ant. You'll be waiting until 2029 to see if he demands a trade, because he won't do it before he secures a SuperMax. To my knowledge, Kawhi is the only player who has foregone a shoe-in SuperMax to force his way out.

But if by some 0.0001% chance happened and Luka was available next season or became a Free Agent... I could just see the posts now... "IDK about Luka, I really like Vassell I'm not sure he's worth giving up... and did you know that Shai is a Free Agent in 2027?" It's a never ending cycle. PATFO's Patience Grift has created an army of cultists who are always waiting to gamble on the next improbable scenario

4. But the mystery box could be a boat!

This one, I think actually has some merit. You don't want to be the team that traded away the pick that became Cooper Flagg or AJ Dyabantsa. But this is a solvable problem. Put Top-1 protection on the pick you send to SAC. I think anything beyond Top-1 is going a little too far, but Top-1 is reasonable. It will come with a cost however, you'll have maybe throw in a little sweetener to get that protection, but it's doable.

I look forward to this debate raging on!

All valid. And I don’t think anyone serious would say apples-to-apples Fox is not better than Vassell. Clearly he is. It’s a matter of both costs, opportunity costs (Flagg and potential other stars asking out like Ant Man etc..) alongside is Fox even a great “fit” next to Wemby etc…But in terms of just raw max deal for Fox or comparing him to anyone else on SA? Fox would be our second best player by a wide margin as things stand and the money alone is not an issue.


I do think the FA thing is a risk, but it’s also not nothing. At least not in terms of negotiating. Spurs cannot afford to be fleeced here given we know Fox alone (especially minus Dev + picks) isn’t enough to make SA a legit contender at all. I do think theres a reasonable chance Fox makes it to free agency, but no doubt it’s a gamble. But the good news is if you make that gamble and are wrong it’s not like you’re broke. You’d still have the picks which you can draft a star with possibly or trade for another player etc…there will come a time to accelerate and overpay if you have to etc…Im not sure that time is now.

[DPG21920]

As I said, re s like yourself who just trigger and strawman people are the cancer of every single forum.
You've provided absolutely no relevant arguments other than trying to present your delusions as something realistic.
You can't name A SINGLE ALL-STAR UNDER 30 who could ask out this or the next summer other than mentioned Fox, Lauri and Trae.

You're ing cancer and would've been warned on any reasonably moderated board.
I would've been banned for insulting you, but I'd gladly take that over having you spew your nonsense over and over.

Are you ok? You seem angry.

[DPG21920]

The Spurs have enough of a war chest in terms of picks and tradable salaries that they could get Fox this week and put together a very compe ive offer for another star this summer. The Spurs can trade a total of 8 firsts between the two trades and still comply with the Stepien Rule.

I'm not saying they should, but they can. The boatload of seconds can also help keep the bottom of the roster stocked with cheap deals if it comes to that.

Correct. Depending on how SA does things, they can either make another trade or have significant cap space still before Wemby extension kicks in. But that’s why this trade matters and the cost. Spurs cannot afford to get lazy and fleeced here. Too much risk, opportunity costs and work to be done even if you land Fox to make SA a contender

[scott]

The Spurs have enough of a war chest in terms of picks and tradable salaries that they could get Fox this week and put together a very compe ive offer for another star this summer. The Spurs can trade a total of 8 firsts between the two trades and still comply with the Stepien Rule.

I'm not saying they should, but they can. The boatload of seconds can also help keep the bottom of the roster stocked with cheap deals if it comes to that.

Thanks for pointing this out again. "Spurs shouldn't blow their war chest" is another dumb argument I hear. It's practically impossible for the Spurs to do so in any one move.

[LeBowen]

Are you ok? You seem angry.

That's the only thing you can reply with since you've got zero actual basketball arguments other than delusions that couldn't be any further away from the truth.

Thanks for pointing this out again. "Spurs shouldn't blow their war chest" is another dumb argument I hear. It's practically impossible for the Spurs to do so in any one move.

Didn't you hear?
Windy said that many targets could become available soon!
Luka is about to ask out, the only question is if we have enough to get both him and Ant.

[spurraider21]

There's also the chance the Spurs can thread the needle by trading for Fox, extending him, and then making Fox the centerpiece of a Doncic deal if Doncic really does try to skip town ASAP after signing his supermax.

Snowball's chance in but fun to think about.

this is an underrated part of the discussion. not luka specifically. but that trading for Fox doesnt kill flexibility like some make it out to be. lets not blow our wad here, lets wait for something better.

even if Fox doesnt work out great, look at what ATL did with Murray. they gave up too much for him, he signed an extension with them, and it didnt work out. but they then flipped him for 2 picks and dyson daniels and recouped a good amount of the value. assuming we extend fox, we'd have a very good player under a long term contract during his prime.

[baseline bum]

It’s not just about draft. If you don’t trade for Fox, you can use those picks for other players to trade for. You dont lose any opportunities

If Ant comes available then you know you could still trade Fox right?

[DPG21920]

this is an underrated part of the discussion. not luka specifically. but that trading for Fox doesnt kill flexibility like some make it out to be. lets not blow our wad here, lets wait for something better.

even if Fox doesnt work out great, look at what ATL did with Murray. they gave up too much for him, he signed an extension with them, and it didnt work out. but they then flipped him for 2 picks and dyson daniels and recouped a good amount of the value. assuming we extend fox, we'd have a very good player under a long term contract during his prime.

Well then theres Lavine…you get Fox falling off a cliff and now on a 50M a year deal and it can really be an issue *potentially* as well. It’s not nothing IMO

[SpursBills]

Just out of curiosity, since I’m seeing a lot of ‘one time all-star’ comments regarding fox, would people feel differently if hypothetically the exact same package for fox could bring you ja morant without the gun issues?

[DPG21920]

If Ant comes available then you know you could still trade Fox right?

Maybe, but you’ve likely burned 3-4 of your best assets that could have been used more cleanly in that deal and make it much much tougher (look at Lavine etc..)

[DPG21920]

Just out of curiosity, since I’m seeing a lot of ‘one time all-star’ comments regarding fox, would people feel differently if hypothetically the exact same package for fox could bring you ja morant without the gun issues?

With Morant being 2 years younger I think that matters,yes.

[DPG21920]

That's the only thing you can reply with since you've got zero actual basketball arguments other than delusions that couldn't be any further away from the truth.



Didn't you hear?
Windy said that many targets could become available soon!
Luka is about to ask out, the only question is if we have enough to get both him and Ant.

No - Im being serious. Basketball shouldn’t make someone this mad. You can hate my ideas, but you seem to have a genuine issue and I want to be sure you’re good.

[Spurminator]

theres a saying somewhere about hands bushes and birds

I was close to making that saying my generic reply to every "What if we give up a future All Star" comment.

[DPG21920]

Im all for bird in hand. But it’s not at any costs. Seems straightforward to me with a player like Fox.

[scott]

if they could top #2 protect this year's picks and top #1 next year's, that would be amazing but i'm skeptical that SAC would yield to that.

also, you didn't mention the "not if it costs us Castle" position.

Good call out. I did mention that one a couple dozen pages ago. I love Castle, and I absolutely want to keep him. But if he's the cost of getting the deal done, then I think you do it. Could Castle turn into a better player than Fox? It's possible. It is likely? I don't think so.

With that said, I think Castle + Vassell + picks is too much. I think I would do Castle + Vassell with no picks, but if we are sending out picks, it only one of Devin or Castle (I try my hardest to make it Devin, and I think Devin fits SAC better anyway personally).

Doing Castle + Devin with no picks might be a hotter take, but it still leaves me with plenty of assets to build the team around my new StarFox Big 2. It also now makes Jeremy playable as a starter and provides some flexibility on what you can do. Keeping Castle means Jeremy becomes a bench guy and you need to out and get shooting wings (Barnes is a good fit and we have him already).

That's my personal opinion on Castle. But... I repeat, I try my damnedest to keep Steph.

[LeBowen]

No - Im being serious. Basketball shouldn’t make someone this mad. You can hate my ideas, but you seem to have a genuine issue and I want to be sure you’re good.

Basketball doesn't make me mad, re s who don't understand the basic principles of an argumented discussion do.

[SpursBills]

With Morant being 2 years younger I think that matters,yes.

Ok so if it were 27 year old ja morant, you would feel the same way?

[DPG21920]

Basketball doesn't make me mad, re s who don't understand the basic principles of an argumented discussion do.

Still - this was all basketball and you just seem so, so angry. If nothings wrong that’s great.

[DPG21920]

Ok so if it were 27 year old ja morant, you would feel the same way?

Not sure - would need to see his next two years and how it goes. But his teams are consistently doing better than Fox led teams.

[scott]

this is an underrated part of the discussion. not luka specifically. but that trading for Fox doesnt kill flexibility like some make it out to be. lets not blow our wad here, lets wait for something better.

even if Fox doesnt work out great, look at what ATL did with Murray. they gave up too much for him, he signed an extension with them, and it didnt work out. but they then flipped him for 2 picks and dyson daniels and recouped a good amount of the value. assuming we extend fox, we'd have a very good player under a long term contract during his prime.

Yeah, people made these same arguments during the Trae rumors. It's like they think these All NBA guys are going to come to San Antonio and suddenly become complete garbage.

Will you lose a little bit? Maybe, but the residual value on what you can recoup on these guys is strong. It's like buying a high-spec Ferrari, so long as you don't treat it like and run it to the ground, it's going to hold it's value and maybe even appreciate.

[DPG21920]

Good call out. I did mention that one a couple dozen pages ago. I love Castle, and I absolutely want to keep him. But if he's the cost of getting the deal done, then I think you do it. Could Castle turn into a better player than Fox? It's possible. It is likely? I don't think so.

With that said, I think Castle + Vassell + picks is too much. I think I would do Castle + Vassell with no picks, but if we are sending out picks, it only one of Devin or Castle (I try my hardest to make it Devin, and I think Devin fits SAC better anyway personally).

Doing Castle + Devin with no picks might be a hotter take, but it still leaves me with plenty of assets to build the team around my new StarFox Big 2. It also now makes Jeremy playable as a starter and provides some flexibility on what you can do. Keeping Castle means Jeremy becomes a bench guy and you need to out and get shooting wings (Barnes is a good fit and we have him already).

That's my personal opinion on Castle. But... I repeat, I try my damnedest to keep Steph.

Same. Everything Ive said is net cost based.

[spurraider21]

Well then theres Lavine…you get Fox falling off a cliff and now on a 50M a year deal and it can really be an issue *potentially* as well. It’s not nothing IMO

lavine was traded to the bulls, who then gave him a 4/80 contract, and he became an all-star during the last 2 years of that deal. that was a success. then they gave him the big 5/200 extension and injuries have taken a toll. i dont see that one as a failure. he's been there for 8 years now