Reply With Quote
Sure it is.
http://www.statesman.com/hotjobs/content/hotjobs/
Don't try to kid anybody. That's your favorite part.Besides, I like working there when there isn't rampant voter intimidation by Obama supporters.
She's the most talked about member of either ticket....period.
Sure it is.
http://www.statesman.com/hotjobs/content/hotjobs/
Don't try to kid anybody. That's your favorite part.Besides, I like working there when there isn't rampant voter intimidation by Obama supporters.
The polls are still whack. One poll shows McCain leading in Minn by 1, the next one shows Obama up by 18...
Ridiculous to take them that seriously. And BTW, Rasmussen ramped up their weights in favor of the Democrats as well.
So would a turtle if it was picked out of thin air to run for VP six weeks ago.
Being Governor of Alaska isn't exactly thin air. Now, Obama on the other hand...he's a product of thin air. , the Clintons didn't even see him coming.
Apparently neither did McCain.
Democrats outnumber Republicans by very large margins right now. Its just the way things are. But I don't care if you take the polls seriously or not. I've seen the internals of both those MN polls and they both have problems with them which is why you got those results. That doesn't mean they don't have valuable information within them.
Anyway, anytime you want to provide proof on why a poll is off feel free to do so and I'll listen. Otherwise I'm done trying to convince you that of they're usefullness.
Good analysis Manny
Which would seem to indicate I'm right not to accept them. Are we saying that even the holy grail of polls Survery USA can be off?
Doesn't mean they're accurate either though.That doesn't mean they don't have valuable information within them.
Anyway, anytime you want to provide proof on why a poll is off feel free to do so and I'll listen. Otherwise I'm done trying to convince you that of they're usefullness.
We've gone round and round on it...I'll just again repeat that I myself am a registered Democrat and leave it at that.
Edit: Plus I'll point out that the reason the Republicans are getting the lionshare of the blame for the Economic Crisis is as much due to the fact that the pollsters themselves are making that assumption as it is an actual trend.
It's a mistake to compare this to any other election...there hasn't been one like it before.
because? links? facts?
Oh man I am REALLY loving this.......
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/...lls/index.html
Hopefully tommorow he can slam the door shut.
From there:
More Americans appear to have an unfavorable view of Gov. Sarah Palin, and that may also be helping Obama in the fight for the presidency. Forty percent now have an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 27 percent a month ago and from 21 percent in late August, when McCain surprised many people by picking the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.
"A majority of Americans now believe that Sarah Palin would be unqualified to serve as president if it became necessary, and her unfavorable rating has doubled," Holland said.
When five thirty eight does their daily update Ill link the image but I just wanted to post that 2 polls came out today showing Obama with a double digit lead in Virginia. Thats pretty damn insane. Polls have also come out that show sizeable leads in OH, NC, and NH all key battle ground states.
The polls today are looking pretty damn exciting for Obama supporters.
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/6392
More Poll Posting - Obama May Be In Real Trouble If Polls Weight Samples Wrong
Published by AJStrata at 11:43 am under 2008 Elections, All General Discussions
With Barack Obama pulling ahead in the polls, it seems a lot of us on the right are concerned about the validity of the message we are seeing. I am still of the opinion something is wrong with the polls and have shown why record crowd levels at Palin events, record viewership of the Biden-Palin debate (this is due to Biden???) and record RNC donation levels all paint a very different picture than a runaway race for Obama-Biden.
I did find one VERY interesting set of data on polls and the electorate which confirms my su ion. But first I want to send a “shout out” to DJ Drummon and his correct statement about today’s less than professional polls:
And I have to warn you that the polls will not reflect an immediate valid effect - if they show a sudden jump for either side it is far more likely to mean that the polls have - once again - changed the party affiliation weights, a practice as dishonest as putting one foot on the floor while you weigh yourself. The reason is because while people do change their minds, historically it has always been a few people at a time and in small steps. One proof of that is that as popular as Presidents Reagan and Clinton were, neither saw a major shift in party identification during his Administration.
Emphasis mine. Note that the two post popular GOP and Democrat Presidents of modern times did not see large changes in party affiliation. And I also want to note Party Affiliation is a poor indicator of policy preferences. And now we get to some intriguing data from The Wall Street Journal. The story is all about the large pool of undecided voters, but it includes the following graph of party affiliation vs policy preferences (Liberal vs. Conservative)
Note the D-R-I split on “all voters” is 43-36-28. Most polls are weighting their sample by party affiliation, not policy preference. With the Democrat Presidential Primary drawing huge crowds and lots of GOP cross-overs to fight off Obama I would not want to put my reputation on party ID being the definitive weighting factor.
Look at the policy preference break down of Lib-Con-Mod, it is split 23-37-36 - almost the REVERSE of the party ID break down. That means if you re-run the polls using policy preference as the weighting factor you could see the polls almost flip 180°! Democrats are up by 7%, but Cons are up by 14% - twice the advantage!
Even more interesting is the undecided poll. In the Party ID view undecideds are split equally between Dem-Rep-Ind at 28-26-43. This would lead one to allocate undecideds or leaners basically down the middle between Obama and McCain since the difference left and right is a statistically insignificant 2%.
But in the policy world view the picture is dramatically different. The Lib-Con-Mod mix is heavily tilted away from Obama’s base with 18-32-47. Here we see very little opportunity for Obama to take the undecided voters. Now the imbalance is 2:1 in favor of McCain, which holds a statistically huge 14% advantage.
I have said all year this was a vote against partisanship. This year the nation would vote on policy, not party affiliation. Hyper partisans from each party are to blame for the current mood of the country. If I am right and these polls have been weighted using the wrong driver (historically it has been party driven) then Obama is not in the lead and has no hope of catching up. Go back to what DJ Drummond pointed out about Clinton and Reagan, they won on policy positions not party ID. Normally I don’t think there is such a schism between the two, but this year there probably is.
I would like to see some pollsters like Rasmussen run a result that had policy position the driving weighting factor, not party ID. I would like to see those results as the other possible outcome, the other end of the ’storm track’. Remember, these are statistical models just like Hurrican tracks. There is a cone of possible trajectories and a likely path. It is time pollsters starting showing the actual cone and how it shifts based on simple assumptions.
Feel free to dismiss as per the usual.
Already dismissed. The main problem I have besides your selective data selection is that you're working with an agenda. You go LOOKING for these articles not because there is evidence the polls are off but because you're looking for something to support what you already believe.
Actualy the funniest part is the last paragraph. Its the worst analogy of all time, and secondly every well informed poll analysis site tells you the actual numbers are not important but its more about the trend lines. In other words what the article is asking for is already being done.
Damn Whottt waste no ing time with a counter attack to the polls....
Actually I just look at the weights and see that they are increasing them in favor of the Democrats. It's actually pretty simple.
Since the subject of party weighting keeps coming up let me post a few things about it
Notice that. If you're going to invalidate polls based on party weighting, please keep in mind that SUSA and Gallop (others as well, but I haven't found a list yet) do NOT weight their polls. So if you're going to use this argument, please keep in mind it does not always apply and therefore in your quest to discredit certain polls you'll have to find a new reason to do so.2. The decision a pollster faces is whether or not to weight its sample by party ID. In fact, the whole point is that pollsters like Gallup and SurveyUSA do not weight their samples by party ID -- they just tally the results, and let the chips fall where they may. So in some sense accusing them of "cooking" their samples has it backward; what you're really arguing is that they should weight their samples, presumably in a way that is more favorable to your preferred candidate.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...-party-id.html
Do you also demand poll cones, whottt?
So that Gallup poll that Whottt keeps saying is off due to the changes they make to accomodate party ID can't be off because of the changs they make to accomodate party ID because they make NO changes to accomodate party ID.
I'm sure we can now find another reason to dismiss this poll, however. Whottt?
I can only imagine how pissed off McCain must be. We might see a ing meltdown tomorrow outta him.
He is trying every trick/gimmick known to man and he is still falling behind in the polls.
Sure, the results don't match their internals....we've already discussed it remember?
And SurveryUSA can be hired by anyone.
I expect their results to start tightening up the closer we get to the election, for credibility purposes...and I guarantee you they'll be closer than they are now.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
