It's also really easy to type out that the draft has guys who all might end up better than Fox (a top 25-30 player in the league), but in reality there is probably only 1, 2 or maybe 3 if things really pan out. Better hope you get the right one.
I agree. That may be what Rich Paul is saying now, but when it comes down to it there is $77MM of guaranteed money on the line by bluffing and saying you won't extend anywhere else if SAC calls the bluff and lets him make it to UFA. Fox and Klutch aren't morons.
Yes
It's looking like the Spurs will have at least two top ten lottery picks and possibly three lottery picks. I haven't added all the odds but it has to be somewhere around 30% or higher for a top four pick. Those are not too bad of odds and worth gambling with and if they don't get into the top four they may even be able to trade into the top four with a couple of those picks and if not they can target Fox next summer if he's still available which he could be in a trade. Spurs have options to turn this roster around and they don't need to over pay for Fox now. they aren't going anywhere this year anyways. The team isn't deep enough yet.
That's up to the Spurs fo to figure out. That's what they get paid for. They would have to be pretty bad to miss on this draft with a top four pick.
I'm with you on this.
The Spurs have to stop counting on a lot of "could be" good players, and take a shot at a known commodity.
I'm not sure Fox is necessarily that guy...but we haven't exactly hit a lot of gold in the first round in recent years.
Vassell...questionable.
Sochan...questionable.
Branham and Wesley and Primo and Samanic...garbage.
At a certain point, youth culture has to become a fully grown team
Nope, right now its 25% but can't get much higher because we won't get Chicago's pick if it ends up top 4 so you cant count those odds.
You are right. Chicago will stay outside the top ten. Spurs and Atlanta have to fall a little more to get up to 30% odds.
100%.
I'm not even sure of what the "let it play out" gang has as a strategy. Are they hoping that Vassell takes a 6th year leap? That Keldon finally discovers "it" at age 26? That we're going to get our next superstar at pick #12? I guess it's all possible, just highly unlikely.
And like we've already seen with the aforementioned Vassell and Johnson, the culture of losing takes a toll and engrains loser habits in them. It's not like there is a magical signal that is going to signal to these guys that it's time to turn it on.
It's a ship without a rudder right now.
Dunc’d On podcast have a mock Fox trade deadline podcast out where they mock out various teams options/interest for Fox.
End result was Fox to Spurs for CP3, Tre and Keldon pls 3 FRPs, the worst of 25 Spurs/Hawks, Chicago pick and the better of Spurs/Celtics 28, plus Chicagos 2nd rounder this year.
Opinion was split between the 4 hosts (Kevin Pelton as Sacramento) on that being enough or too much.
Good listen. One new thing was Nate Duncan saying the timing from Klutch now being about Spurs having the cap space in the off season to renegotiate and extend Fox to more $$$ than a standard max.
Nice trade terms but not sure about Fox at more than the 30% max.
To see if either lottery pick hits top 4.
I’m ok with trading for Fox if the Spurs can retain 1 of the 25 FRPs (ATL or SA), beyond that I’d rather see what happens at the lottery and proceed from there.
So I take it you have come around on Flagg over Harper?
With Atlanta in such a talespin I'm telling the Kings they can't have the ATL 25 if they insist on Castle being in the deal. Gotta take the Spurs 25 instead.
If Spurs or Atlanta can get into the 9th spot the odds jump up to 20.3% for a top 4 pick.
At the 10th spot they have a 13.9% chance at a top 4 pick so there is a good % jump from 10 to 9.
If the Spurs end up 9th and Atlanta 10th odds for a top 4 pick are 34.2% so they would get into the top 4, one out of three drafts, that's not too bad.
I expect Phil will have a good chance to pass both the Spurs and Atlanta to give the Spurs that 34.2% chance at a top 4 pick.
I'm keeping Castle and rolling the dice on the 34% on getting a top 4 pick. I believe in the top 4 this year.
Would you do the following as the base of a trade? I know Sac would demand a 25 pick but would anyone else actually beat this prior to the deadline?
Vassell + CHI 25 FRP, SAS 26 FRP, ATL 27 FRP, SAC 31 FRP for Fox
Others players and SRPs could be added in but the above is the core.
Problem is the Spurs can only be top 4 or 9-14 if say they fall to the ninth worst record. So there's no let's pick up Tre Johnson at 6 or 7 if we miss out on Flagg/Harper/Jak/Bailey in the top 4.
With the Spurs and Atlanta floundering those draft picks are becoming more valuable.
They are like stocks and the stock values are increasing.
In a second, especially since the SAC 31 is a swap. That would be highway robbery.
I ended up listening to dunc on, where they did a mock trade negotiation with Fox. Spurs ended up with the deal, being Tre Jones, CP, Keldon, worse of spurs/Hawks pick for 25. Bulls 1st, best spurs/Celtics 29 picks, bulls 25 second for Heurter and Fox.
Gonna suck in the 66% chance those picks end up McNeeley and Saraf or something. Guess we gotta see if Wright can really put the screws to Sacramento. Ideally I'd like them to take Sochan or Main Character 24 so keep both Castle and the ATL pick.
But a possibility can be Chicago can land at 11 and the Spurs can trade 11 and 9 to jump to 6 or 7 and draft Tre Johnson.
There are many roads the Spurs can take depending how the draft positions shake out and I'm liking all the possible outcomes.
Sometimes you have to roll the dice. It worked to land Wemby with longer odds. Still the Spurs may have three top 12 draft picks so a possibility to combine a couple to jump up.
Fox confirmed to a SacBee reporter tonight the Spurs is where he wants to sign. Rich Paul is clearing a path for Brian Wright. If Wright can’t take advantage of this at some point whether now or offseason - then he probably shouldn’t have the job.
Yeah, Cooper has definitely pulled away in that race
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