Gustav

[AlamoSpursFan]

The Mexican Chuck Norris.

So who would be the Mexican Jack Bauer?

[Ginofan]

Well out of the 6 computer models on wundground.com, 3 show that Gus is headed for texas and the other 3 show for louisiana.

[Cry Havoc]

well i don't know what i lodged in your butt, but i'll satisfy your need. my very simple point is we're currently faced with a tropical storm,depression, hurricane--frankly, whatever in the you want to call it--that starts with a letter that formed more than 20 days later compared to another tropical storm,depression, hurricane--frankly, whatever in the you want to call it--that ,coincidentally, started with the same letter back in 2005. it's my understanding they're assigned a name alphabetically corresponding to when they form. going off those facts it seems that it's not panning out to be a busy hurricane season, thus disappointing al gore groupies and environMENTALs.

2005 was the most active hurricane season on record. It broke a record for number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, and category 5 storms.

The previous record was set in 1933. And if things continue on course with this season, it stands a chance to be one of the 5 most active seasons in history. But you repeatedly state that it's a quiet Atlantic ocean out there.

Again. You don't know what you're talking about. Step down.

[Ginofan]

Yesterday, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter research aircraft dropped a network of 60 specialized buoys (Air eXpendable BathyThermographs, or AXBTs) in the Gulf of Mexico to provide precise measurements of ocean temperatures in order to aid intensification forecasts for Gustav. This data are now feeding directly into the GFDL and HWRF computer models, but not into the other global models (GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF). In theory, the intensity forecasts from the GFDL and HWRF models should be better, for the portion of Gustav's track over the Gulf. Both of these models are currently calling for Gustav to be a Category 3 hurricane at landfall. The HWRF is saying this landfall will be near New Orleans Monday night, and the GFDL predicts a Mississippi landfall Monday morning.

[MannyIsGod]

The HWRF basically brings Gustav right up to NO. Its a pretty ty scenario for them.

[Los Spurs]

The HWRF basically brings Gustav right up to NO. Its a pretty ty scenario for them.

I just want to say, thanks to Manny for keeping us all on the loop of things regarding this damn hurricane.

[MannyIsGod]

I want to say the GFS has been run since this image was made and its shifted more to the East. They really need to get the upper air P3 planes up in order to lock down these models.

With possible landfall being closer to 3 days out now we will get a much better sense of statistical accuracy out of these models.

[BacktoBasics]

Some of those lines are awefully close to Corpus

[MannyIsGod]

Well, the new HWRF is also picking up on the SW turn. It has the storm come to about 10-30 miles from the LA coast - then turn SW.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW if you like cheap oil prices, these models that bring the storm close to LA then turn it west should pretty much make you want to puke.

[1369]

Latest vortex message

[ATRAIN]

Hey Manny, as of right now where to you expect it to hit?

[ATRAIN]

Also how the does manny know so much about the weather? What do you do for work?

[MannyIsGod]

Also how the does manny know so much about the weather? What do you do for work?

I play poker.

It could go anywhere from Mississippi to the Upper Texas Coast. I do think B2B is safe in Corpus but I've also seen crazier so who knows.

On a good note, if he had to evacuate think of all the life experiences he'd be able to write threads about while sitting in gridlock on 35.

[BacktoBasics]

It would be gridlock on 37.

Gridlock would certainly cause melting....I'd probably cause more personal and public damage than the actual storm.

[ATRAIN]

I play poker.

It could go anywhere from Mississippi to the Upper Texas Coast. I do think B2B is safe in Corpus but I've also seen crazier so who knows.

On a good note, if he had to evacuate think of all the life experiences he'd be able to write threads about while sitting in gridlock on 35.

ARE YOU ING KIDDING ME, you play poker for a living. So are you going to answer how you know so much about the weather??

[ATRAIN]

It would be gridlock on 37.

Gridlock would certainly cause melting....I'd probably cause more personal and public damage than the actual storm.

LMAO

[Ginofan]

ARE YOU ING KIDDING ME, you play poker for a living. So are you going to answer how you know so much about the weather??

Manny is a weather nerd, that's how knows so much. I remember when Katrina was coming and we had a little nerd party watching Katrina come ashore on satellite and looking at all the damn radars and .

You just have to read to learn.

[Los Spurs]

I play poker.

It could go anywhere from Mississippi to the Upper Texas Coast. I do think B2B is safe in Corpus but I've also seen crazier so who knows.

On a good note, if he had to evacuate think of all the life experiences he'd be able to write threads about while sitting in gridlock on 35.

Well, for being a King of Poker you certainly do good when it comes to the weather. We can always use another weather man on channel 5.

[MannyIsGod]

I've just always been really into it. I find it really fascinating to watch them and to read about past storms. Its not just hurricanes though, its pretty much all weather. I just read a ton about it and always look for more info on it.

[Los Spurs]

I've just always been really into it. I find it really fascinating to watch them and to read about past storms. Its not just hurricanes though, its pretty much all weather. I just read a ton about it and always look for more info on it.

Storm Chaser???

[MannyIsGod]

I've never chased anything. I'd like to, so I probably will at some point in the future but not as of yet. I actually wanted to chase Dolly earlier this year but I was in Big Bend when it was coming ashore. It would have been an excellent chance.

[ATRAIN]

I've never chased anything. I'd like to, so I probably will at some point in the future but not as of yet. I actually wanted to chase Dolly earlier this year but I was in Big Bend when it was coming ashore. It would have been an excellent chance.

You should be a Tornado chaser.

[Cry Havoc]

Gustav's central pressure has lowered to 988 millibars. Outflow is looking incredible in all directions. As soon as he emerged from the coast of Jamaica, he began to pick up strength.

Hurricane hunter aircraft are expecting to find a developing eye. Gustav is also significantly expanding in size and only the steering upper winds are giving him a light sheer right now, but that's not enough to prevent further strengthening.



Eye formation is beginning here.

Water temps look dangerously perfect at the moment, if Gustav follows the expected track.




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwp...p_l_loop.shtml

A huge, animated photo of the NCEP model for path and intensity of Gustav.

Lowest pressure shown is 920 millibars as he approaches the coast, which is category 5 strength. That does not bode well for anyone in Louisiana, let alone just New Orleans.

This storm is serious. If you live near the coast, now would be the time to start evacuating ahead of the crowd (looks like that's a bit late already for NOLA).


Also, to those in Florida, PLEASE do not disregard Hannah. I'm making a separate thread about her so that she doesn't get lost in Gustav's swagger.

[MannyIsGod]

Outflow isn't looking that great to the west actually. If you look at water vapor loops you will see that it is kinda restricted because of a trough over the Gulf.