A realistic goal for the Olympics is to be the third best team behind Spain and USA. If they are healthy, they have a real shot at getting the bronze medal.
To be at the level of Spain, France will need to have a bigman good on both sides of the court. Noah, Turiaf and Florent Pietrus suck on Offense. Traorés sucks on Defense. Diaw is Diaw.
Séraphin and Mahinmi are the best canddidate sot be that good 2 way bigman. Like you, I would give an edge on Séraphin even more because he will play in Spain during the lockout and these young bigs need to play. Ajinça is also worth keeping an eye on because of his huge upside.