Bigman Combinations: The Raw Stats

[Solid D]

Based on timvp's fine set of numbers, here are the point differentials:

Tim Duncan and DeJuan Blair
+2.72 Point Diff./100 possessions
+2.37 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and Matt Bonner
+14.62 Point Diff./100 possessions
+13.43 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Matt Bonner
+9.94 Point Diff./100 possessions
+11.93 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter
-6.06 Point Diff./100 possessions
-4.36 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair
+1.81 Point Diff./100 possessions
-2.99 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tiago Splitter and Small Ball
+2.25 Point Diff./100 possessions
-5.55 Point Diff./48 minutes

DeJuan Blair and Matt Bonner
-12.12 Point Diff./100 possessions
-13.27 Point Diff./48 minutes

Tim Duncan and Small Ball
+9.54 Point Diff./100 possessions
+14.05 Point Diff./48 minutes

DeJuan Blair and Small Ball
-15.41 Point Diff./100 possessions
-15.03 Point Diff./48 minutes

In the Detroit game, we saw a little more time with the Duncan-Splitter combination. We also saw an uncharacteristically bad small ball lineup. Here are the straight-up +/- numbers for the Big-man combinations versus Detroit.

Duncan-Bonner +6
Duncan-Splitter +4
Duncan-Blair Even (0)
Splitter-Bonner Even (0)
Duncan small ball -7

Granted, the Duncan-Bonner combo wasn't effective because of Bonner's shooting. It had more to do with spacing and Tim and Tony stepping up in winning time.

[polandprzem]

It's a combination of spreading the floor and the efficiency with which Splitter runs the screen/rolls. Parker and Neal both seem to flourish in the 2-man game with Tiago.

Plus Splitt and Bonn are playing against other teams bench.


But mainly Bonner on the 3 pt lane and a perfect screens by Tiago makes the offense work.


It's sad to see Blair regressed and after him being benched last year and being pissed about it.

[polandprzem]

Ofcourse Matt stats looks gr8 but we all know about his production in the playoffs ..

[timvp]

Working off what Solid D posted:

The Duncan and Splitter combo dominated on defense. They played together for 7:05 and gave up only nine points, which translates to 60.9 points per 48 minutes. However, the offense (88.1 points per 48 minutes) wasn't too hot with that duo on the court.

The offense was much better with Duncan/Bonner (128.6 pp48m) and Splitter/Bonner (103.9). Duncan/Blair's numbers translated out to 90.9 pp48m on offense and 84.9 pp48m on defense.

So basically, nothing too ground breaking. Duncan/Splitter very good on D, still a work in progress on offense. Bonner's presence helps the offense when Duncan or Splitter is on the court.



Tonight against the Raptors, I expect more Duncan/Splitter. They start Aaron Gray and Amir Johnson, so having bulk and length in the game will be important.

[therealtruth]

Working off what Solid D posted:

The Duncan and Splitter combo dominated on defense. They played together for 7:05 and gave up only nine points, which translates to 60.9 points per 48 minutes. However, the offense (88.1 points per 48 minutes) wasn't too hot with that duo on the court.

The offense was much better with Duncan/Bonner (128.6 pp48m) and Splitter/Bonner (103.9). Duncan/Blair's numbers translated out to 90.9 pp48m on offense and 84.9 pp48m on defense.

So basically, nothing too ground breaking. Duncan/Splitter very good on D, still a work in progress on offense. Bonner's presence helps the offense when Duncan or Splitter is on the court.



Tonight against the Raptors, I expect more Duncan/Splitter. They start Aaron Gray and Amir Johnson, so having bulk and length in the game will be important.

You can always work out the offense issues but the defensive improvement is worth it. TD and TS could have been much further along if Pop hadn't used Tiago's injuries against him.

[ChumpDumper]

You can always work out the offense issues

Can you always?

[sabar]

It's obvious that the team scores a lot when Tiago and Bonner are in together. What would be interesting to know is if Tiago and Bonner are doing a significant portion of their scoring when they are in the game together, or if they are doing more to allow the other guys to score? In other words, do they score at a higher or lower rate when they are on the floor with each other, or with Tim? Does Bonner score less when he's on the floor with Tim, due to fewer opportunities - or more because of more wide-open looks? Basically what is it that actually makes the Tiago/Bonner combo tick?

Since stats like that are difficult to get without paying large sums of cash for a database, I'll go with some bball theory to explain it, along with why his defense seems good in that lineup as well.

There are some key points that makes Splitter/Bonner deadly.

The first is that Splitter only does two things. First, be plays in the low post. Because he converts those at a high clip, it forces a help defender to sag off the shooters that we surround Splitter with. Other teams, they have trouble making rotations and end up getting burned or Splitter uses his foot-work for an easy bucket.

The second is that Splitter is excellent at pick-and-rolls. He is consistently getting clear paths to the basket and the ball-handler does a good job of finding him. This is also due to the fact that Parker has been playing extended minutes lately and we see a lot of Splitter+Parker.

A few other things can't be ignored. Splitter and Bonner usually play against bench bigs, and those two players are usually more skilled. Splitter has also been doing well against guard penetration, while Duncan/Blair generally give up more uncontested layups. Blair is also lazy on defense while Bonner at least gets his arms up. Timmy does very well against opposing bigs, but athletic guards or wings are trouble when they are slashing.

Another thing is that the second unit plays the game slower and generally takes better shots. Most possessions revolve around a Splitter post-up (can go for the bucket or make a pass if they send weak side/strong side help), a pick-and-roll, or a lot of off-the-ball screens in a flex-type offense that gets guys like Neal open shots.

So why is Bonner good with Splitter? It is simple, because Bonner is being used in a way that maximizes his game. It is by far the best line-up for someone that takes catch and shoot 3s. Timmy isn't in the low-block every play and he isn't commanding as much help defense as he used to when he does play down low. This allows players to play our shooters tighter and let Tim work.

Bonner isn't as useful with certain players, such as when Leonard is on the floor (he can be sagged off), when Blair is on the court (he plays no defense while Splitter or Duncan can anchor the paint, plus his offensive is very raw), or with Duncan (plays in the high post/key a bit too much to give Bonner room). The first unit calls a more screens that don't work and run more isolation and less motion. RJ also plays the exact role Bonner does. This just all adds up (and a lot of these things are problems with our starting unit, Bonner isn't the only one affected). I think most of it revolves around the ineffectiveness of Blair. He has to be force-fed to be good, and even then, that's only one side of the court.

Basketball is a team game, so an individual with weaknesses can have those weaknesses masked by certain lineups and situations. The reason that Bonner is less effective in the playoffs is because teams can force match-ups in their favor. In the playoffs, you can bet that defenses will close-out on the 3pt line and make better rotations. They will dare Splitter to go 1-on-1 with a post move more. They test your skill and throw lots of different bodies at you until they force your hand.

The problem is that Pop doesn't have any other big-man cards he can play, and one of those cards is a joker. Everyone already knows the solution: we need a big with any kind of respectable perimeter shot. Until then, someone has to cover for Blair's deficiencies and right now it is Timmy. The problem with playing Splitter and Duncan together is that either leaves the bench with no defensive anchor or makes the bench rotation a lot trickier to work (a.k.a, a lot more minutes for everyone not named Blair)

I think Pop is playing his hand right so far.

[therealtruth]

Basketball is a team game, so an individual with weaknesses can have those weaknesses masked by certain lineups and situations. The reason that Bonner is less effective in the playoffs is because teams can force match-ups in their favor. In the playoffs, you can bet that defenses will close-out on the 3pt line and make better rotations. They will dare Splitter to go 1-on-1 with a post move more. They test your skill and throw lots of different bodies at you until they force your hand.

I agree in the playoffs teams force your stars to beat them. And your role players have to make the open shots when the stars get double teamed. Individual talent is much more important in the playoffs.

[Fabbs]

Can you update this?

In a recent thread, Mel_13 had the following request:It sounded interesting, so I researched the numbers.

I present the results with limited commentary to allow the numbers to speak for themselves. Plus, I'm interested in the conclusions others draw from these numbers.

Here are the bigman combinations in the order of most minutes played together: