Hurricane Emily: Texas Bound?

[MannyIsGod]

Honestly, chances are that we here in San Antonio won't see much form Emily. Even the models that bring her torwards the valley kick her out west into Mexico then Arizona (No longer much of anything but moisture).

But to be fair as well, the models have predicted this storm about as well as Whottt predicted Shane Heal as an allstar. They are always one step behind what it does and how things are effecting it. I woudlnt' be at all suprised to see the trough above us right now to pull it farther to the north and in turn pull it up torwards San Antonio and then shoot it off to the north around the high to the east.

It's really interesting that the weather above us for the next 12 hours or so and how it plays out could have a big impact on where this storm goes.

[MannyIsGod]

This is from our local NWS office and their forcast

12Z MAV GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE DRIER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA WITH
UPPER LEVEL TROF WEAKENING AND MOVING NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CURRENT POPS IN THE FORECAST REFLECT A WETTER
ATMOSPHERE AND ONGOING RADAR OBSERVATIONS ALSO REFLECT THIS.

The model runs at 7am this morning are saying the trough is going to kick out to the north and east by Tuesday, but the observations they have point to it sticking around a bit longer and being stronger.

It's really a crapshoot right now, and all we can do is sit and watch but I woudln't be suprised if I end up going down to the valley in the next couple of days to help family board up.

[Shelly]

Well, this is the next 10 days according to weather.com. Should be interesting

10 day forcast

[Horry For 3!]

Hurricane Emily is not Texas bound anymore.

[MannyIsGod]

Another thing to consider as well, is the further north the system gets the less time its going to spend over land on the Yucatan. If it goes much further north, it won't spend much time over land at all and it won't weaken all that much.

[hunter-thereckoning]

i was in cancun a week ago

[thispego]

hunter the reckoning, you dont even know where cancun is

[SWC Bonfire]

hunter the reckoning, you dont even know where cancun is

Sure he does... it's just north of Uvalde on the Frio River

[CosmicCowboy]

Sure he does... it's just north of Uvalde on the Frio River

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Sure he does... it's just north of Uvalde on the Frio River

Damn, I've been there too many times as a kid.

/Born in Uvalde.

[MannyIsGod]

@ Cancun on the Frio.

Does anyone who went tubing out there remeber the 5 foot waterfall on that route? Hurt my ass more than once on that thing!

[AlamoSpursFan]

I'll have a firsthand report tomorrow night...

I'm taking a load of chips to McAllen at 10am tomorrow.

Does anybody have some hip waders I could borrow? And maybe a boat anchor?

[MannyIsGod]

Damn dude. I would not want to be on 281 with a trailer in the valley going north or south. Wind will be around 30-40 mph with gusts higher.

This thing is going to hit Mexico, but the thinking is that the moisture is going to get blown off the top by the flow and funneld back into Texas somewhat.

In other words, San Antonio will see chances for rain Wednesday and Thursday thanks to Emily, but nothing really associated with the Hurricane itself. The valley will get some TS force winds and a bunch of rain, but nothing they can't handle.

Sucks for Mexico, though.

[bigzak25]

In other words, San Antonio will see chances for rain Wednesday and Thursday thanks to Emily, but nothing really associated with the Hurricane itself.

cool. that's really all i needed to know. thanks.

[AlamoSpursFan]

Darn. They changed my run. Now I'm taking a Harlingen load at 4 am. Guess I'll miss the festivities unless Emily gets a wild hair up her eye-wall and steps on the gas...

[Johnny Tightlips]

i forecast alotta things..

[Bo Malette]

i forecast my foot goin up your ass

[Ginofan]

Looking at satellite images this morning it looks like it's going to go to Mexico.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Looking at satellite images this morning it looks like it's going to go to Mexico.

I can feel the hurt you have inside.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, even if it doesn't turn anymore to the west - and it more than likely will - it's not going to make landfall on the Texas coast. The further it waits to make that turn though, the worse its going to be for the Valley.

[Ginofan]

I can feel the hurt you have inside.

[Manu20]

What do you think of this Manny? Two new storms

[desflood]

It's raining in Leon Valley (I think this is the fourth day in a row). Woohoo!!

[sa_butta]

Here comes the rain Im on I10 and Dezavala.

[cherylsteele]

It looks like the Texas coast may have another storm next week in Gert.

and Florida will deal with Franklin.

The odds are not too good for the Texas coast to dodge the bullets this year.