ESPN Insider Free Agent Forecast

[scott]

The roster that directly resulted from the "Holting Pattern" lead to a championship. Therefor the Holting Pattern was a success. Just in a different way than expected.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Admiral, I gotta jump in...

2. The Spurs would have no problem attracting one top free agent, maybe even two, because every player in the league would jump at the chance to play for Tim Duncan. Mostly false. I don't think playing with Duncan is a main draw for most players. Many of these guys are used to being the main star, and sharing the load (or worse, deferring to Duncan) wouldn't sit well with their egos. Some guys perhaps want to win a le that badly (Malone or Payton), but most just want the cash. This is especially true if such a free agent has a reasonable chance of at least making the playoffs each year.

We'll be attractive for the same reason people talk about going to the Lakers every year, and for the same reason that Orlando could pair McGrady and Hill (at the time) - most feel you have to have 2 stars to win... Jermaine doesn't have a second star in Indy and his team just got punked. JKIdd looks around and sees a 3-23 Kenyon Starks and a guy in Richard Jefferson who is a great dunker but sorry shooter. Outside of that, who do they have?

Anyone on the Clips is self-explanatory, because well, they're the Clips.

On the topic of keeping our cap space for next year, we'd have to offer 1 year contracts (a good scenario would be to pick up Payton and Malone for a year, split the 15 million between them but save a little for Claxton) to go get Brand next summer. Then fill out the roster with minimum/vet contracts.

Unfortunately the other problem with holding over money until next year is we'll be faced with the task of re-signing Manu, and he ain't gonna be cheap!

AHF

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Manu is a priority for mine - what do you think he's worth? I'm hoping he might be got for the 4.5mil exception, (42mil over 7 years like Malik?), but I'm not sure...

Unless we can get O'Neal, Brand or Kidd, and assuming we can carry our capspace over to next year, we should look to do just that. We all want a second star, why compromise and blow our 15mil on second-raters if we can't get what we want?

Please DON'T go anywhere near Kandi. He's a Jim McIlvaine-sized disaster just waiting to happen. Personally, I don't think Pop and RC are foolish enough to go anywhere near him (thankfully).

[MannyIsGod]

great thread.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

The problem with carrying it over to next year is the Manu situation.

I felt decent that with increased minutes next year he'd be interested in sticking around for a deal starting at the MLE.

But if we have 15 million in cap space again next year then we lose that MLE, and Manu's contract will have to come out of that cap room, and we probably would have to make some other moves to free up enough cap space to get a max FA.

AHF

[Coolidge]

Ginobili poses no problems for cap room in 2004 as he will be an Early Bird free agent like Stephen Jackson is this summer.

[SpursWoman]

Welcome to the forum, Coolidge



Great thread indeed 2

[Coolidge]

It's great to be here, miss.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Coolidge, Manu is still a concern. Why?

Because with the Early Bird exception, a team may re-sign its own free agent for 175% of his salary the previous season or the average player salary, whichever is greater.

In Manu's case it will most certainly be the average player salary, problem being if other teams with more cap room offer him a big deal (I believe it's the same situation the Warriors have run into with Gilbert Arenas this summer).

That's my concern. Manu's gonna be looking to get paid this next contract, we're gonna have to s out some cash.

AHF

[Whottt]

I think Manu is going to want to stay in SA, if we make him a part of the offense.

I think he will work with us on the contract as long as we don't try to turn him into a role player, because he isn't one.

Why aren't we talking about going after Mourning for one year?

He is hungry for a le and he plays hard. We don't have to give him huge Duncan like minutes with Malik and Willis on the team.

Sign Mourning...go after Brand in a year.

[Ghost Writer]

Thank you, Admiral, for galvanizing what Marcus refuses to believe. Your take is refreshing in this thread of circle-jerking.

Cap Space != Supertar Signing

Olowokandi is not a terrible settlement coming off a le run.

[spurster]

It is amusing to see revisionist history from the BAMA group. BAMA complained and complained that the Spurs refused to make any big moves that would result in a championship now. Now that the Spurs won, proving that BAMA was wrong, we see a lot of whitewashing. How hard is it to admit you were wrong, and then go on to bigger and better things?

Getting to the topic, I agree NO LIMIT 2003 looked a lot better 2 years ago before a lot of potential FAs signed extensions. I agree that the FA market is chancy. But I don't think that spending the cap space is a major gamble because of where the Spurs are now. Here are some considerations that I haven't gotten as much attention.

One thing the Spurs have for sure is a young talented backcourt: Parker, Manu, and SJax. You can add Claxton to that list if the Spurs want to keep him. If you're thinking about the long-term, the first question is whether any of these players will develop into a star. I am confident that Parker or Manu is headed to s om (maybe both). If so, then the Spurs will need to pay major bucks to keep him. Will the Spurs want to do this in addition to two long-term MAX contracts? While the Spurs are not stingy, I don't think they want to be deep in luxury tax territory. The Spurs will seriously hesitate on Kidd if they foresee spending big bucks on Parker and Manu. That would be a lot of money spent on guards.

Duncan and Rose are sure to be fixtures in the bigman rotation for years to come. Two more bigman are the holes everybody sees. It sounds like Willis wants to stay, so that would shore up a backup slot. Jermaine or Brand would be a major addition, but they will be hard to get and they will cost money, though it's not like B. Miller, P. J. Brown, Rasho, or Kandi will be cheap.

Bowen's position is a hole in the near future. He is 32 and his game is predicated on quick defense. If he loses a step, he will be a liability on the floor. The question is what year this will happen, and it could very possibly be next year. I don't hear Odom mentioned much, but it may be that he will blossum in the Spurs system (might be true of Kandi, too).

A final point is that the two-star formula is not the most desirable attribute you want. First, you want the players to play as a team. Team play will beat uninspired stars (recall US Team in the World Championships). I don't really like the backup of making trades if signing up a star doesn't work out, which will be disruptive. The Spurs already play well as a team. The Spurs have been brilliant in their small moves leading to a championship. Even getting Steve Smith has worked out somehow. The Spurs are not good at signing big name players. Maybe it is better to stay with what you are good at.

Well, I have more questions than answers. If Jermaine or Kidd really want to come to the Spurs and the Spurs system, I think the Spurs should sign him. If they are not sure, then how hard do the Spurs want to try?

[Marcus Bryant]

Indeed spurster. Excellent post. Such a display of 20/20 hindsight has never graced a forum before...

[scott]

Brilliant, spurster.

The moral of the story is that not ending up with another superstar this summer does not equate to failure. While not optimal, the signing of secondary players can still very well lead to another championship.

[Ghost Writer]

Nice job, spurster.

Some counterpoints:

• What has BAMA been wrong about? The philosophy was that waiting to sign a superstar in summer 2003 instead of making a major move to win before then was flawed logic. I don't see a superstar signed yet, pal. A funny thing did happen along the way, though. The Spurs won a le!

• HOYA was happy to tread water until summer 2003. None of you people expected a le before then either!

• Stephen Jackson is Bruce Bowen's SF replacement.

• Michael Olowokandi will be a suitable replacement for Robinson for between $7 and $10 million if all esle fails.

[Marcus Bryant]

BAMA (you especially) said no Spurs championship during the 2001-02 and 2002-03 seasons. BAMA said Spurs were not doing what was necessary to compete for a championship.

Guess not, mother er.

Don't even try to spin your way out of this one.

[Ghost Writer]

What are you ranting about now?

BAMA b1tched because the Spurs were not looking for ways to put the team over the top, because they wanted to clear cap space for summer 2003.

The le this year came as much as a surprise to BAMA as it did HOYA, sucka.

You certainly weren't on board with doing nothing until summer 2003, either, you stupid sunuvabiyatch!

[adidas11]

Come on now Marcus, no one from HOYA could have predicted a championship for the Spurs this season. Quit acting like this was something that you expected all along. I'm as surprised and impressed as everyone else.

[Admiral]

HOYA was happy being mediocre for two years if that's what it took to have a shot at assembling a dream team this summer.

BAMA did not see the point in sacrificing good trades simply because it would interfere with the cap space in 2003 plan. We saw a team with potential, and did not want to see that potential wasted because some people wanted to play Las Vegas in San Antonio - which is essentially what you're doing when you bank on free agency.

Yes, we won a le anyway. It still does not make the Holting Pattern some genius plan (that remains to be seen). It does, however, say a lot for the coaching staff's ability to develop players and get them to play Spurs basketball. Acting as if the Holting Pattern planned for, or even considered, winning a le this year is an injustice to the wonderful job our coaching staff did.

From the standpoint of what the Holting pattern was designed to do (i.e., bide our time until the summer of 2003, and then sign one or two big free agents), it will be a failure if we do not sign either O'Neal, Brand, or Kidd.

[Marcus Bryant]

Damn. Admiral's hindsight is 20/10. Now BAMA is the caretaker of the potential that BAMA wanted to run out of SA for whoever could guarantee the Spurs a le (ie The Payton Urban Legend).

And shut up already about "The Holting Pattern." You geniuses went off on that for two years and now you have a nice fat 2nd championship to stick in your revisionist craw.

[Marcus Bryant]

Great. Here comes Admiral and his 20/10 hindsight.

HOYA was happy being mediocre for two years if that's what it took to have a shot at assembling a dream team this summer.

Right. HOYA preached patience. BAMA whined about the Spurs not making a bunch of short term minded deals that made no sense for a team that was 2 years away from life without David Robinson. And you claim we are the ones who wanted to "gamble"???? Get a clue, Sherlock.

BAMA did not see the point in sacrificing good trades simply because it would interfere with the cap space in 2003 plan. We saw a team with potential, and did not want to see that potential wasted because some people wanted to play Las Vegas in San Antonio - which is essentially what you're doing when you bank on free agency.

You've posted this nonsense time and time again. Just like with Ghost Writer, repe ion on your part does not breed correctness. It is not gambling to recognize that you need to give yourself flexibility to adjust the team after David Robinson leaves, it is common ing sense.

The Holting Pattern is a mindless phrase that means nothing except to a couple of simpletons...one who complains about "ballas" and subtle racist comments about the Spurs not having enough African-American coaches who can relate to young African-American players and the other an individual so fixated on seeing his favorite player go out as a champion that he wanted to see this franchise make a lot of nearsighted short term moves that would have hindered this franchise over the next decade.

Don't act like you have some sort of wise vision while the rest of us advocated a reckless POV. The reverse is true and you can take your arrogant 20/10 hindsight and choke on it.

[Ghost Writer]

Mr. NO LIMIT himself pawning himself off as a practioner of patience and a HOYA supporter.

Sell "crazy" someplace else, Marcus... no one's buying.

[scott]

Indeed. This team should avoid short-sighted moves. They don't win championships. See Portland and Dallas.

So tell me again why we are looking to replace a 21 year old point guard with a 30 year old one when the 21 year old will most likely be better than the 30 year old in 2 years?

[Ghost Writer]

To put it succinctly, scott, because Tony Parker will not be on Kidd's level in two years and because we could upgrade our current starting PG with the best one in the game and if done via a sign-and-trade, sign a reasonable Robinson replacement.

[scott]

because Tony Parker will not be on Kidd's level in two years

I will hold you to that.