Like many have said, if it happens, it happens ... we can't influence whether AJ's number is retired or not.
However, it'd be lowering the standards of all future jersey retirements, because the arguments in favor of raising #6 to the rafters are flimsy:
1. AJ was the vocal leader of the Spurs. So what? I'm sure we appreciate that, but he couldn't back that up with his game. The vocal leader is effective only if he can put the team on his back for at least a few games. If the criterion is simply being vocal with or without having the talent to match, I'm sure Mark Madsen will feel good about the chances of his jersey being retired some day.
2. AJ had balls, especially in the playoffs. Well, if that's the case, Robert Horry's number will have to be retired by the Spurs, Lakers and Rockets. But that ain't gonna happen. And Mario Elie had way more balls than AJ, with a shooting touch to boot.
3. AJ hit the game-winner against the Knicks. For the love of God, that was one of the most one-sided Finals in the last 20 years. That shot was hardly a series-changer, ala the Horry shot. The Knicks gave a wide berth to the weakest shooter in the team, and he happened to make it. We were leading the series 3-1, and the Knicks couldn't have beaten us even if we rested AJ for the remainder of the series. They had no answer to the twin towers.
The likes of Derek Fisher and Rick Fox have a better case for jersey retirement than AJ, but I doubt if LA is that generous to roleplayers.
Many here are confusing their personal fondness for AJ with AJ's contribution to the Spurs. Let's make a clear separation between the two things. AJ was funny, gritty and a much-beloved underdog. If fan recognition is the criterion for jersey retirement, so be it. But let us not try to justify the jersey retirement with AJ's on-court contributions, because that makes a weak argument.