The Only Seven Prospects the Spurs Would Select if San Antonio Trades for Another First Rounder

[objective]

Question:

If a player you like, for arguments sake let's say Cason Wallace or Bilal, slips to 15 and Atlanta, would you want to see the Spurs flip one of the future Atlanta picks back to them to get that pick?

What if Atlanta wants that 2027 pick back as the price?

Would anyone at 15 be worth the potential of a future Atlanta pick? With Quin Snyder, is it safe to assume Atlanta won't be that terrible?

Danny LeRoux of Dunc'd On labeled that 27 pick as the most valuable traded 1st rounder, though Nate Duncan didn't go that far.

[Ariel]

OKC got to #11 last year with 3 FRPs. None of them had the possibility of our Toronto pick. One of them was Denver’s pick in this years draft, #27, which they have since flipped. One of them was a Wiz Pick which looked tasty at the time, but, protected 13,11,9 from 2024 on, may not even convey if they blow it up like it appears they will. The 3rd pick was Detroits, protected 19,14,12,10 Starting in 2024. That's not even as good as our Chicago pick.

I’m pretty sure our CHI,CHA,TOR Picks get us into the top 10, if that the way we want to go.

I agree, but I think Toronto and Chicago have EXCELLENT chances to convey as lottery picks, and Charlotte's chances of coveying improved significantly and may end up even better after the draft and free agency, if new ownership is serious about winning. An 8th seed gives them 2 chances for a playoff spot, and that requires about .500 record, which is attainable with a roster of Lamelo / Rozier, ? via FA/trade, Brandon Miller / Hayward, Miles Bridges/PJ Washington and Mark Williams. With a 2 year span, I like it a of a lot better than this time last year, and if it conveys it will sure do so in the mid first round 15-20 at worst.
My point is, we should be VERY careful NOT TO OVERPAY, that's almost all star price you're paying for a prospect who hasn't played a game in the league. Not sure any one target (Black / Bufkin) is worth 3 picks in that range.

[Ariel]

Question:

If a player you like, for arguments sake let's say Cason Wallace or Bilal, slips to 15 and Atlanta, would you want to see the Spurs flip one of the future Atlanta picks back to them to get that pick?

What if Atlanta wants that 2027 pick back as the price?

Would anyone at 15 be worth the potential of a future Atlanta pick? With Quin Snyder, is it safe to assume Atlanta won't be that terrible?

Danny LeRoux of Dunc'd On labeled that 27 pick as the most valuable traded 1st rounder, though Nate Duncan didn't go that far.

No. For one, I don't like any either THAT much (would much rather take Bufkin, for instance) and we have to keep in mind we're trading for PROSPECTS that MAY NOT PAN OUT AT ALL. Giving up an unprotected first for a pick in that range sounds crazy to me. If that's the cost of doing something, I'd rather do nothing.

[mo7888]

Question:

If a player you like, for arguments sake let's say Cason Wallace or Bilal, slips to 15 and Atlanta, would you want to see the Spurs flip one of the future Atlanta picks back to them to get that pick?

What if Atlanta wants that 2027 pick back as the price?

Would anyone at 15 be worth the potential of a future Atlanta pick? With Quin Snyder, is it safe to assume Atlanta won't be that terrible?

Danny LeRoux of Dunc'd On labeled that 27 pick as the most valuable traded 1st rounder, though Nate Duncan didn't go that far.

Nope... not putting the Atlanta picks on the table unless its an all in type of move... and there no pick at #15 worth that type of consideration.

[exstatic]

Question:

If a player you like, for arguments sake let's say Cason Wallace or Bilal, slips to 15 and Atlanta, would you want to see the Spurs flip one of the future Atlanta picks back to them to get that pick?

What if Atlanta wants that 2027 pick back as the price?

Would anyone at 15 be worth the potential of a future Atlanta pick? With Quin Snyder, is it safe to assume Atlanta won't be that terrible?

Danny LeRoux of Dunc'd On labeled that 27 pick as the most valuable traded 1st rounder, though Nate Duncan didn't go that far.

I’m only trading any ATL asset as part of a package for an All Star. That’s about 3X overpay for a mid FRP.

[exstatic]

I agree, but I think Toronto and Chicago have EXCELLENT chances to convey as lottery picks, and Charlotte's chances of coveying improved significantly and may end up even better after the draft and free agency, if new ownership is serious about winning. An 8th seed gives them 2 chances for a playoff spot, and that requires about .500 record, which is attainable with a roster of Lamelo / Rozier, ? via FA/trade, Brandon Miller / Hayward, Miles Bridges/PJ Washington and Mark Williams. With a 2 year span, I like it a of a lot better than this time last year, and if it conveys it will sure do so in the mid first round 15-20 at worst.
My point is, we should be VERY careful NOT TO OVERPAY, that's almost all star price you're paying for a prospect who hasn't played a game in the league. Not sure any one target (Black / Bufkin) is worth 3 picks in that range.

An All Star price these days is 4 unprotected FRPs and 2-3 unprotected swaps. See: Durant, Kevin; Gobert, Rudy.

[offset formation]

Here's a detailed analysis of FRP value:
https://www.bruinsportsanalytics.com...ba_first_round

Notable from that analysis:



After 20, you basically have like 65 to 80% chances to get an unproductive, a bench or a rotation guy. In the lottery, that's 50% chances. (With some surprising trends for a few spots... So yeah, it's important to value what you have and not overvalue what you could get for that.

"For every Lebron James, there's an Anthony Bennett.
For every Tim Duncan, there's a Michael Olowokandi."

Like ~30% of all HOFers are 1st picks. Not sure if I'm surprised or not. What's clear is that there's a second e squarely centered on pick #15

[JPB]

An All Star price these days is 4 unprotected FRPs and 2-3 unprotected swaps. See: Durant, Kevin; Gobert, Rudy.

Yup, reason why spurs will be cautious with their picks....that's before starting to talk about quality role players who will also cost you picks...

[Ariel]

An All Star price these days is 4 unprotected FRPs and 2-3 unprotected swaps. See: Durant, Kevin; Gobert, Rudy.

Bad examples: KD isn't a mere All Star, he's a top 5 player in the NBA. Gobert was a ridiculous overpay that will never happen again.

[BackHome]

It will be interesting to see what current cost are for players who might be traded; LaVine from Chicago and Sikam and OG from Toronto and Ayton from Suns....

[Mr. Body]

Like ~30% of all HOFers are 1st picks. Not sure if I'm surprised or not. What's clear is that there's a second e squarely centered on pick #15

The 15 e is. Kawhi Leonard.

[objective]

The 15 e is. Kawhi Leonard.

Giannis was #15 also

[exstatic]

Bad examples: KD isn't a mere All Star, he's a top 5 player in the NBA. Gobert was a ridiculous overpay that will never happen again.

Except it keeps happening. Dejounte set the market last year for a fringe all star, 3 FRPs and a swap. No agent is going to let a legit all star go for less.

[offset formation]

The 15 e is. Kawhi Leonard.

He'll definitely add to Steve Nash (HOF, MVPs, All-Stars), but for now all he's registering as is the light green All Star category. And along with Giannis, there will be an unmistakable HOF blip there for a second opportunity at that slot and just on either side of it (statisticallybetween 14-19). Several all star or all rookie appearances for folks like Al Jefferson, Dell Curry, Brent Barry. You can get nice talent there more frequently than not.

[Ariel]

Except it keeps happening. Dejounte set the market last year for a fringe all star, 3 FRPs and a swap. No agent is going to let a legit all star go for less.

What keeps happening? Dejounte commanded 3 firsts and a swap. This is 3 firsts, and the value of firsts rounders is expected to go up. Fringe all star value.

[duncan2150]

[mo7888]

He be good for them....Solid player that isn't good enough to impact wins next year so they can keep the pick they owe NY..

[exstatic]

What keeps happening? Dejounte commanded 3 firsts and a swap. This is 3 firsts, and the value of firsts rounders is expected to go up. Fringe all star value.

The upping of the ante in player trades.

You also didn’t say fringe All Star, you just said All Star. That trade directly led to the pick escalation in subsequent trades, and that kind of thing never goes backwards.

[scott]

Here's a detailed analysis of FRP value:
https://www.bruinsportsanalytics.com...ba_first_round

Notable from that analysis:



After 20, you basically have like 65 to 80% chances to get an unproductive, a bench or a rotation guy. In the lottery, that's 50% chances. (With some surprising trends for a few spots... So yeah, it's important to value what you have and not overvalue what you could get for that.

"For every Lebron James, there's an Anthony Bennett.
For every Tim Duncan, there's a Michael Olowokandi."

Great chart. Pick #12… yikes. Primo never stood a chance

[scott]

Like ~30% of all HOFers are 1st picks. Not sure if I'm surprised or not. What's clear is that there's a second e squarely centered on pick #15

Giannis, Nephew, Steve Nash. There is your e.

Brent Barry and Dell Curry also were #15 overall picks.