Cavs/Suns Game on ABC

[Amare_32]

sounds fine to me!

actually, i still wanna see how this rodeo trip goes but i may prefer to see the spurs over the lakers in the playoffs

I agree with an earlier post you made. The Spurs are clearly not the same ass kicking Spurs we have seen the last few years. Granted thier record is great but there is someting missing on that team.
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[SoCal Lakeshow]

lol at your sig

[tempe85]

actually I am proud that the mavs have only lost 2 out of the last 23 games because in that span the mavs have actually beaten pretty good compe ion against quality teams not like the suns .300% schedule thus far.

I bet then you'll be surprised to hear that the Mavs opponents have only a 1.9% better record than the Suns opponents.

Also the Suns rank #1 in expected win percentage http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi which factors in SOS and point differential... furthermore the Suns rank #1 in the Sagarin rankings which factor in wins vs top teams as well as strength of schedule http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin.htm. Furthermore the Suns rank #1 in Hollinger's rankings which factors in SOS, Win Margin, and recent play http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking .

Not looking so good for your argument is it?

Another thing I think worth mentioning is that the Suns only loses this season have come by 8, 4, 6, 5 (OT), 7, 3 (OT), 5 (OT), and 2. Which means the last time a team beat the Suns by more than 2 points in regulation was 38 games ago... and they have yet to lose by more than 8 points which means they've had a shot at winning every game they've played this year... making them at the very least quality loses.

The Mavs meanwhile have lost by 6, 31, 3, 18, 9, 10, 22, 13, and 11. Meaning 7 of the Mav 9 loses have been worse than all 8 of the Suns loses... 6 of the loses being very non-quality loses (meaning luck and chance had little to do with the loss).

One reason I find this important and relevant is that it is a good indicator for future success.

[ponky]

I bet then you'll be surprised to hear that the Mavs opponents have only a 1.9% better record than the Suns opponents.

let it die

[JMarkJohns]

Actually this season, we have been able to count on the bounces for many of our wins which is invaluable when playing close games against better teams. This is one of the reasons the Spurs have almost always kicked our ass in the past when the games were close. Dirk has been more clutch than I've ever seen him be, which is huge because I don't usually consider him to be that kind of guy.

I'm not saying you can't necessarily count on your players come playoff time. Merely that all the small things are very unlikely to exactly duplicate in the playoffs as they had in the regular season, thus propping a team up because they happened to got an extra bounce or two in the regular season matchup is foolish. It's been said over and over, but the Heat really are a great example of that. Some teams break down as the season goes on, some teams get better. So what happened in November or even January isn't as good a guage as some are pretending it to be.

Trying to *omit* the first two weeks of the season, where late in the second week the Spurs and Mavs beat the Suns, is just as weak as mentioning the 2-0 record that the Mavs have against the Suns.

No one is *omitting* the first few weeks. But it is pertanent that both the Suns and Mavs started off slowly, then steadily improved. You can't dismiss what happened in the early part of the season as if it didn't occur, but you can say a team has improved from that point by saying their 1-5 start isn't as good an indicator of their future potential as is their current play.

Understand? Again, a great example of this was the Heat last year. They started off terribly, worked their way through, losing some hard-fought contests to some good teams along the way, then, at their peak, managed to win the le. Was their early season struggles a good measure of their ability? As good as their mid-to-late season progress? I don't think so.

BTW, I'm not saying that either team is better

That's good, because neither am I, though I do agree that until the Suns beat San Antonio or Dallas they haven't earned all the hype they are receiving. Dallas has played better against the best teams than the Suns have. Still, to *omit* the Suns current progress on the back of their early season struggles is insane. Again, and even you agreed in the game thread of the Suns vs. Mavs that both teams could walk away happy knowing that it was a hard-fought contest decided by one single possession. Thus far, the best guage for where the Suns and Mavs are at was the late December meeting 'tween the two. If you can walk away from a one-possession win at home with confidense that everything come playoff time will bounce your way, then fine. I don't think either team can count on something like that. See the Suns 2-0 record in the final two games vs. the Mavs last season and their 2-4 series loss with relatively the same players in the playoffs. They may look great now, but that doesn't mean it always will play out that way. A one-possession home win and now many Mavs fans are spouting off as if they own the Suns. Please.

I'm just saying that your argument is no less weak than the Mavs poster.

Actually, you're mistaken. I just proved such above. Again, Dallas has played better vs. the best teams, but has been prone to let downs at times. The Suns have yet to have a letdown where they lose big. They have literally held second-half leads or been in every game late that they've played this season. Their level of consistancy is nothing to ignore, sneer at, *omit*...

No, you can't dictate greatness when one team beats another team in close games, but there IS a reason that some teams consistently beat you when the games are close (eg Spurs v. mavs two years ago)....it's because they CAN rely on the *bounce* more often than not.

That simply isn't the way things are. The only thing you can count on is how well you play yourself. As I showed, Dallas is a better up team, but also an up and down team. The Suns, even when they struggled, weren't necessarily down, as they were unlucky with a few bounces. Remember the Raja Bell's throw out of bounds late vs. the Mavs? That's what I mean by unlucky. The Suns had a chance late, but beacuse of a mixup, blew it. Can the Mavs count on Nash faking one way then running in the opposite direction as Bell throws the ball in the direction of Nash's fake?

I don't think so. That's probably been worked on and the periferals dealt with. If the Suns need a crucial basket late again and Bell is being pressured with his dribble already picked up, I'm sure they have something worked out now. That they'll all be on the same page.

The one thing I'll give the Mavs is that they rebound very well. That's always something you can count on. That works in their favor. Everything else is subjective, as it depends on the opponant, the way the refs work the game and how well they are playing at that specific time.

Tell me, did the Suns 2-0 finish vs. the Mavs last season give them the momentum necessary to beat the Mavs in the playoffs? What's that? No! So if a Suns fan used the 2-0 finish as a prop up for what was coming in the playoffs they'd have been wrong in doing so?

Well then...

[JMarkJohns]

let it die

I'd say the Mavs fan who came in guns a blazin' cared.

When confronted with facts, he failed to care.

Remember, I actually agree that the Suns have been very fortunate and that these streaks have come against many lesser teams annd for that said streaks should be viewed more of a blessing than a sign, but you can't dismiss two 15-game winstreaks for the of it.

And that's the point.

[Amare_32]

I'd say the Mavs fan who came in guns a blazin' cared.

When confronted with facts, he failed to care.

Remember, I actually agree that the Suns have been very fortunate and that these streaks have come against many lesser teams annd for that said streaks should be viewed more of a blessing than a sign, but you can't dismiss two 15-game winstreaks for the of it.

And that's the point.

Lets see what the Mavs fans say when the Mavs in the 2nd half of the season get to beat up on the Eastern Conference. I bet they won't dismiss the win streak.
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[bulletedge]

It's all masturbation until the playoffs. The Suns have put together two incredible winning streaks. The Mavs have had a couple of pretty good ones themselves. All that tells us is that right now they have the two best regular season records- and that they are both hungry and feel like they have something to prove.

But either team would trade their streaks in a heartbeat for a WCF series win and a ticket to the Finals.

[nsrammstein]

Don't be surprised to see the suns bounced out in the 2nd round. They will soon realize that not all of their schedule is made up of teams that are 10 games under .500%

[Amare_32]

Don't be surprised to see the suns bounced out in the 2nd round. They will soon realize that not all of their schedule is made up of teams that are 10 games under .500%

Whatever like the other Mavs fans said is all mastubation until the playoffs. So go grab you lotion and get to work.
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[RS189]

They will soon realize that not all of their schedule is made up of teams that are 10 games under .500%

You got something against the kings?

[Shank]

Quick - run for the stats!

[Amare_32]

Don't be surprised to see the suns bounced out in the 2nd round. They will soon realize that not all of their schedule is made up of teams that are 10 games under .500%

Is almost comical that some Mavs fans are hoping that the Suns lose in the semis. Are you scared of the thought of facing a healthy Suns team in the West Finals? In fact they were not even 100% in the 05 semis when they eliminated Dallas. After Stackhouse almost took Joe Johnson's head off.