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I know I'll be having some great post election sex but I have no worries about pregnancy. BARACK ON!!!
The Atlanta Journal Cons ution reported recently on disproportionate early voting among African-Americans. Georgia doesn't appear to be in play in the presidential election, but it tracks early votes contemporaneously (and online), so it may be a useful bellwether for what's happening elsewhere.
If it is, the news continues to be extremely good for Obama. Early vote totals have now reached 499,582 -- more than 75,000 more than were cast early in all of 2004, according to Matt Carrothers, a spokesman for the Secretary of State. (The state is also newly encouraging early voting this year, so that's a major factor in the overall increase.)
Most striking: The ratio of African-American voters remains extremely high. 37% of the early votes were cast by black voters, who make up just 29% of the state's electorate.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
Pretty interesting. If Obama gets higher than expected AA turnout in general you can forget about the polls being accurate in many states but not in the direction most McCain supporters hope.
I know I'll be having some great post election sex but I have no worries about pregnancy. BARACK ON!!!
, NYT poll tonight shows a big ass Obama lead but they've had a Dem lean according to 538, so its not as big as it shows. That being said Obama's lead is pretty substantial at this point and more importantly the way McCain's favorability ratings are droping are pretty noteworthy.
Great news for McCain!!! South Carolina appears to be a lock to go Red.
Hey, I know I could be wrong. So what?@ Obama winning OH but losing PA. Demographics much?
Well if you want to throw darts at random states to decide how they will go thats fine, I just figured you would like to have a logical line of thinking to back up your state selections. If PA is red, then OH is red.
I'm factoring in racism and black population in my guessing. Ohio has more blacks, and Pennsylvania has more Good 'ol Boys!
Wow, thats deep. Can you show me some evidence of elections recently where race has had a negative effect in PA and a positive effect in OH in recent history?
You can start with the primary results if you want.
I'm not going to try. We'll see in three weeks, OK?
Its ok to say you have no data to back up what you're saying WC. You can attribute things to your gut or whatever you want, but at least be honest about it because I've seen extensive breakdowns of that regions election data and it simply doesn't support what you're saying so I know that you don't have anything to back it up with.
Just admit it. Its not that hard or that bad.
OK, I have no third party data to back me up.
I'm just going by a gut feeling for an educated guess. I am relying on my travels across this nation, and getting to know people from so many places.
That's all.
I live in rural PA. There are a lot more Obama signs than I would have imagined given that this is one of the reddest parts of the state. Unscientific as that may be, I strongly doubt PA goes to McCain.
Great news for McCain!!! South Carolina appears to be a lock to go Red.
Geeezus he is almost 20 in MI? Just two weeks ago that was considered a battleground......
When you say "i'm pulling out of your state" it sends a message to people that they are not important. Its easy to believe those polls since they were really favorable prior to this anyway.Geeezus he is almost 20 in MI? Just two weeks ago that was considered a battleground......
WTF has Whottt boycotted this thread or something??
Don't trust the polls. They are notorious for inaccuracy this far out, especially when the respondants are claiming about 40% democrat 30% republican 30% other. Wait till a few days before the election, then they will be closer, but still not accurate.Geeezus he is almost 20 in MI? Just two weeks ago that was considered a battleground......
Factors for election turnout vary by other things on the ballot as well. I started a list, then deleted it. Too many factors to try to explain with the little time left.
Proof please.
Manny, if you were a McCain adviser, what state combination would you be gunning for? It looks like he'd have to comeback and take Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia and Missouri. That's a tall task but it looks like that'd be his only shot.
Agreed?
WTF has Whottt boycotted this thread or something??
Naw....but until major changes start happening I don't really have anything else to say.
Basically if I were to post I'd say I think the polls are BS, list my reasons, then the asshats pileon ensues...we've already done that 10 times so unless I got something new to add or I see you guys adding something new, I don't really see any point in going over the same . But I do still read the thread....
He only has one shot and its the shot you just laid out. I mean thats flat out it. He has to run the table because Obama has the Kerry states + Iowa locked up. I am pretty sure NM is locked up also. That means that at that point ANY of those states you listed above moving to Obama puts him above 270.
Its just such a tall task.
Rush asked Palin today what she was planning as far as her future political career. What kind of a message does that send? If Rush thought she was going to win, wouldn't her future political career be set in stone as VP with a run at the presidency post McCain? When Rush doesn't believe, you know things are bad for the GOP.
In other words, the polls were something to spooge over during the height of Palin mania, but now that the worm has turned, they have to be erroneous.
#1. That's hilarious coming from a guy whose stock response during that period was: Obama will win. Obama will win. To every poll posted.In other words, the polls were something to spooge over during the height of Palin mania, but now that the worm has turned, they have to be erroneous.
#2. When the polls started showing @19 point differentials or so, in the same state, on the same day, something they are still doing in most of the battelgrounds, I said they were bull and I wasn't going to take them seriously.
#3. You guys lost enthusiasm for posting polls during that period, so someone had to do it.
#4. They haven't changed much Nationally in the past few weeks, and if anything they've been trending down for Obama. Which I already called they would do.
#5. I've already listed numerous times why I think the polls favor the Democrats, so unless you guys want me to keep doing it(similar to what you were doing during the surge only with 10x more thought, intelligence and analysis behind it in my case) I don't really see what I have to add.
I suppose I could be posting to point out how all the fraudulent registrations are impacting many of the weights in these polls...is that what you guys want me to do? I kinda already did it...but I could do it in more detail.
bogus voter registrations DO NOT EQUAL voter fraud
As David Gergen said, HUSSEIN does not have the WH wrapped up, simply because he's black (America has 10s of millions of hard-core, ignornant racist rabble being roused and inflamed by McNasty's campaign).
Right:
This is voter fraud:
Something smells at 2885 Brownlee Avenue in Columbus, Ohio.
I strongly recommend that the Ohio Republican Party get on the case before it’s too late. Today’s the last day to challenge voters who registered early in Ohio before the run up to Election Day.
Here’s the stench: An entire houseful of young, non-Ohioan Democrat activists have used the Brownlee Avenue address to register themselves to vote in the Buckeye State and secure absentee ballots under extremely shady cir stances — all while mobilizing a large effort to register thousands of others for absentee and early voting. The activists are leaders of a group called “Vote From Home ‘08.” The group is self-identified as having “extensive experience with political organizing, election administration, and Democratic politics.” They were hailed as the “Justice League” by a Daily Kos blogger. Their Facebook page brags: “Want to turn the Presidential election blue in a key swing state? Vote from Home is a political organization that was founded by a team of young people for the purpose of assisting, aiding, and tracking voters to elect progressive candidates to the White House. Encouraged by the excitement of the 2008 elections and the movement around the Democratic candidates, Vote From Home will be in Ohio seeking to deliver 10,000 votes to Democratic candidates statewide.”
My friends at Palestra.net, a network of young reporters who have been doing the voter and registration fraud reporting that the MSM has been slow to do, have a breaking investigative report on how several members of the Democrat Vote From Home team — all Rhodes, Marshall, Fulbright, and Truman Scholars studying abroad — are turning up on Franklin County voter rolls despite having no bona fide residence in Ohio and admittedly having little to no knowledge about the state before descending on it in August to sign up other new voters in a rush to put 10,000 Obama supporters on the rolls.
http://mic emalkin.com/2008/10/15...entee-ballots/
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