Shutting down Fox for the surgery next week, we’ve got pretty good odds to lock in #8. If the basketball gods stop crapping onus ATL will finish at 9th in the East, and the #11 spot. 8 and 11 would be just fine by me.
BTW, holding picks 9,10 gives you slightly better odds than just pick 8 in the lottery.
I STG it feels like Atlanta has won so many close games that at best were coinflips for them. This team is over performing and its incredibly frustrating.
Their expected winning percentage is a full .06 lower than the actual! They should be at .417 and instead are .477. Combined with the super weak East and this is the Spurs getting ed out of another lotto pick.
It sucks that this years Hawks pick is looking more and more like a let down. But remember, we still have 2 more (1 of those as a potential swap) coming. I know some think the Hawks are on an upward trajectory but I don't really see it. Their ownership already made cost cutting trade deadline moves, I have to wonder what this summer looks like for them and if Trae is going to continue to be invested going forward. Jalen Johnson is good albeit injured a lot. Risacher is solid but hasn't really shown star potential. Just so much of the east is terrible that it props up the Hawks. Hopefully some the dumpster fire east teams can take some steps forward ala Detroit this year.
The last 7 games Hawks play Orlando twice, Philly, Dallas, Nets, Knicks, and Utah.
Just gotta hope they crash out in the play-in.
they have been very lucky all year doesnt help that orlando sux ass this year
Probably the most disappointing team this year. Not only did they not progress, but they took a clear step back. Signing KCP seemed like the logical next step, but now seems presumptuous and foolish.
It is time to think seriously about packaging those future Hawks picks for immediate roster upgrades. The combination of the East being trash for the foreseeable future, Atlanta having pretty promising building-blocks along with continued Trae floor-raising, and Quin Snyder's proven ability to make lemonade out of mediocre rosters-- all suggest that those picks will be far less tasty than originally thought.
Last edited by spursistan; 03-11-2025 at 07:28 PM.
How dare they! It's almost like a lot of injuries might have happened ...
Everyone’s back now, and they still stink like a dead carcass.
Vassell + ATLs 25FRP has value. That’s one way to use it this summer (plus Barnes’ expiring).
We’ve arguably also already “used” their 27FRP in that it gave the Spurs space to send out their natural pick to SAC while keeping skin in that draft.
Not picking on you, but I see a lot of folks including Barnes in outgoing trade ideas. Why are we so eager to move HB? He’s one of the few competent players we have (and by that I mostly mean guys who could start on a playoff team. Wemby, Fox, Barnes that’s about it right now - with Castle surely on his way there soon).
Is it because we want something more of Barnes? Just because his expiring presents value? Concerns that his age is about to present a drop off? HB takes pretty meticulous care of his body and I could see him performing at this level in this role for another 3-4 years. I would love to see us extend him. With that said, he is definitely one of the more valuable trade chips we have.
Agree Barnes is a keeper right now in most scenarios
Strictly for the expiring salary. For example, if PHX doesnt want to take on more long term money in a Durant deal etc.
Otherwise, I too like Barnes for what he brings to the team (though is D is pretty meh), and everything he’s doing for the community. More importantly Pop LOVES him, so he’ll probably be here until his 40s.
Barnes has been everything we could've hoped for from an essentially "free" player. I'd love to see him back and mentoring a good prospect or two next season. If he was of value to another team for a young and talented player, we'd at least have to listen to any offers.
Barnes is so efficient with tremendous economy of motion. His superpower is that he almost never hits only one 3 pointer. He will nail 3-4 in a row in 2 mins. He's a class act and a consummate pro, obviously.
Isn't it because Barnes have value that can add?
For example if we trade say Malaki. We won't get much. But if we trade Barnes we might be able to get a protected first or something (not accurate value just pointing out why people love adding him)
Hope we can have valuable pieces in the offseason
We need Trae to sprain an ankle or a groin or hamstring injury that sits him for a couple weeks.
Man, just looked at their remaining schedule and it is an absolute cakewalk. We aren't getting that lotto pick...
At this point I'll be surprised if ATL is a lottery pick.
Trae would have to get hurt to keep them out of the playoffs and I can't ever root for something like that.
It's amazing how much Trae can keep them compe ive no matter what is happening around him.
They've lost two guys worth almost 40ppg to injury or trade and Ice Trae just starts making their replacements look like good players. Remember John Collins y'all?
The guy is just a phenomenal floor raiser on offense and he's so clutch that he helps them win more than their share of close games.
They’re a game and a half ahead of pick #11, and as much as they’ve over performed against top teams, they’ve underperformed against bottom teams. If they just regress to the mean and finish with the record that their net rating says they should, they’ll finish in the lottery, 11th pick spot, and #9 in the East,needing to win 2 consecutive games against motivated focused teams to exit the lottery, the second one on the road.
John Collins looks better now in Utah than he did in ATL, where his numbers dropped every year with Trae until ATL salary dumped him.
ATL is fighting for a 7/8 spot in the lottery, not contender status. If they do manage to play in, and us out of a second lottery pick, they will be summarily and abruptly dismissed by the top seed. Don’t get confused by some one-off games in December or February. They are not a serous team, and they are only in the position they are because the EC is .
Hawks remaining schedule... W/L based on previous match ups this year.
Hornets 1W
Clippers 1L
Nets 1W
Hornets 1W
Warriors 1L
76ers 1W
Rockets 1L
Heat 2w 1L
Bucks 2W 2L
Blazers 1L
Mavericks 1L
Knicks 2W 1L
Jazz 1W
Magic 1W
Nets 1W
76ers 1W
Magic 1W
Based on this they should go 11W/5L with one game that could go either way.
11-5 seems aggressive for a team like ATL... will probably end up a lot closer to 8-8, which is still good enough to look them into the 7 seed.
They’re a sub .500 team, and you have them going on a heater to 11-5. Okaaaaay.
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