Reply With Quote
Its a very weak schedule and the W/L isn't something i pulled out my ass, its based off of the records they already have against those teams this year. If history repeats itself as it often does that is a real possibility.
Paolo was injured, but I think the real issue is that he may not be the impact player some are thinking (or hoping) he could be. He puts up flashy numbers, but there are a lot of red flags going back all the way to Duke (poor TS%, mediocre rebounding, average D) that, if not fixed, will put him much more in the Zach Randolph/Blake Griffin range of impact rather than the Duncan/KG/Dirk range.
Its a very weak schedule and the W/L isn't something i pulled out my ass, its based off of the records they already have against those teams this year. If history repeats itself as it often does that is a real possibility.
I get how you came up with 11-5, but of the remaining schedule I could easily see losses to LAC, GSW, HOU, MIA, MIL, POR, NYK, and one of the ORL games. There's 8 losses right there. Could some of those flip to wins? Of course. Could some of the other 8 wins flip to losses? Also of course. I'm just saying, if you were asking me to bet on 11-5 to close the season for ATL, I'm fading that big time. We'll see!
That's fair to say, especially with the injuries they have sustained mid season which would make comparing the W/L less accurate. Still if I was betting I would bet they go over .500 for the remainder of the season given the weak schedule.
Underrated comment right here. Paolo's game is very aesthetically pleasing because he's highly skilled in a tactical sense - big, strong, great handle for his size, skilled passer, gets lots of buckets. But you compare his on/off especially with Franz Wagner and it paints a terrible picture
Source: databallr.com
Minutes OFF DEF NET Paolo/Franz 3726
112.5 111.4 1.1 Franz 4484
111 110.8 0.3 Paolo 2149 111.2 120.1 -8.8 No Paolo/Franz 3065 103.8 112.9 -9
Injuries have something to do with this, but the sample size is dating back to when they started their careers. Trend is even more exaggerated when looking at this season, although that might be noisy due to Suggs' injuries.
I was going to use the below table as part of a CMB propaganda piece, but it works just as well functioning as a Paolo hit piece:
USG ORTG Team 3% AST% AST:TO NBA prospects Draft Age SOS DRTG ranking SOS DRTG Zion Williamson 28.2 129.2 30.7 15 0.9 3 18.95 11 97.8 Julius Randle 26.2 111.2 33.7 10 0.6 5 19.55 6 99.8 Paolo Banchero 27.2 111.3 44.6 17.5 1.3 4 19.6 63 99.6 CMB 27.3 115.8 31.9 21.6 1 0 20 24 100.5 Jared Sullinger 27.3 117.8 32.9 8.6 0.6 1 20.23 13 98.8
This basically looks at pre-draft numbers of ball-handling big forwards with high usage. I'm not including dudes who only function as a floor spacer or cutter or whatever. These guys all have the ball in their hands a ton and act as a fulcrum for their respective offenses. I wanted to look at how capable they were of generating efficient offense. Team 3 point percentage includes the entire team except for the player in question. I also looked at the number of draft prospects also on the team to get a feel for the overall talent level for their teams.
The guy that sticks out the most is Zion - in spite of horrific spacing and playing against the best defense, he generated by far the most efficient offense at the youngest age. 129 offensive rating against his schedule is absurd - this is part of what made him the second best prospect of the last 15 years to me.
The other guy that sticks out, but negatively, is Paolo. With 4 other NBA prospects on his team (Mark Williams, Trevor Keels, Wendell Moore, AJ Griffin), and by far the best high volume spacing, he still could only power a mediocre offense.
Take from that data what you will.
Go Hornets!
Hawks win again tonight. Blazers lose at the buzzer too while the Spurs won so we drop from 8 to 10. Need to start stacking losses but PATFO would rather around tbh.
Gonna try and win some more games to make it more palatable to Spurs fans when Pop names Mitch the his successor.
Darn, that one win push us to 10th?
For now. We're neck and neck with the Bulls and Blazers. We need those two to win as many games as possible but I don't see us finishing below them considering Spurs aren't tanking.
Unserious franchise if we do that tbh.
The advantage we have is that we’ve played 2-3 games less than most teams, and the Fox shutdown looms. We’ll probably finish 9th because Portland genuinely seems to be trying, but 8th is a real possibility.
Dream scenario:
8 and 11. Combined odds of top four pick at 35.7% with a 8% shot at first overall.
Nightmare scenario:
11 only. 9.4% chance at top four with a 2% chance at first overall.
An acceptable realistic middle ground for me would be the 8 being our only lotto pick or the 10 and 11 combined. 8th pick alone has a 26.3% chance at top four with a 6% chance at first. The 10 and 11 combined carry 23.3% at top four and a 5% chance at first overall.
Really need the 17th to get here sooner to hopefully shut down Fox for the season.
Really bad loss for Detroit to Washington last night.
Atlanta is now only 4 losses behind Detroit for that 6 seed. Detroit has the third toughest remaining schedule in the league, Atlanta the fourth easiest.
Atlanta might be getting that 6 seed.
Darn, should have maybe tried to trade this year's Atlanta pick with some players to the Jazz for Lauri Markkanen. I absolutely hate coming into this thread and seeing the Hawks win all the time. I'd be happy for them if one of the Spurs' draft picks didn't hinge on them losing.
fck...was just thinking about that.
At this rate, Atlanta is coming out of the East to face OKC or whoever in the finals.
Ainge would never have taken just one Atlanta pick. He would have wanted both, plus probably the Minny 20131. I mean, he’s asking two FRPs for Walker Kessler, who was drafted in the 20s.
nice win for the Bulls to help us out last night.
Markannen wasn't eligible to be traded in season because of when he signed his extension.
Well if that's the case, I don't feel so bad about it at all then. Having said that, before the season started Atlanta weren't projected to finish high up, so maybe if the offer was made for the first draft pick, Devin and another good player, plus a much later down the road pick, maybe they do it. Question is, do they still get Fox if a couple of picks are traded, and would you rather have Fox for what he was traded for rather than Lauri who might have cost 2 first round picks, and a couple of players such as Devin Vassell and someone else. I do remember that people here and maybe even the Spurs themselves didn't want to trade Devin. If they were willing to, though, maybe Ainge starts listening. I guess you can't go back in time as none of us knew how Devin would play this season and none of us knew Atlanta would be doing so well.
I knowAt this rate, Atlanta is coming out of the East to face OKC or whoever in the finals.. Fields, ATL GM, gotta give him credit for cleaning up the mess that was. Getting Daniels in that DJ trade was very underrated and he's providing what they thought DJ was going to. Just really has made everything mesh well along with Okongwu playing like he should. If Jalen hadn't gotten hurt, they would be even higher in the standings.
Hawks finally dropping a game tonight down big in the 4th. Thank you Clippers.
Lol Hawks lost the 3rd quarter 35-8.
the Hawks.
Nephew of Uncle Dennis doing the Spurs a solid.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions