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ing A manny you need to get out more.
They've re-tasked the hurricane hunter that fixed the center about an hour ago and sent him back in.
ing A manny you need to get out more.
Yeah, I did mention he's getting sheared a bit, but when his eye is established he's going to start sucking up that warm water like candy.
Look how much he increases in size in under three hours!!!!
Pressure dropped over 4mb the past hour. Thats a pretty severe drop that quickly. The next few hours will be interesting. Everyone's been waiting for it to explode and it might be about to do that.
Gustav has regained hurricane status.
Winds at 75 mph. Central pressure is 978.4 mb.
Look at the convection around the center! Those cloud tops are going up and getting cold, quickly.
Eye is closed now at 29 miles wide and circular... as per latest RECON
Sorry but every time I hear the name Gustav, I get this little flash
The great Gustav von Wangenheim (Eddie Izzard)
It's time to leave New Orleans
Today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina's catastrophic hit on the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama coast. Unfortunately, I think that people living in New Orleans should mark the anniversary of Katrina by getting the heck out of the city. You live at the bottom of a bowl, ten or so feet below sea level. This is not natural. Nature wants to fill up this bowl with huge quan ies of Gulf of Mexico sea water. There is a storm capable of doing that bearing down on you. If you live in New Orleans, I suggest you take a little Labor Day holiday--sooner, rather than later, to beat the rush--and get out of town. Gustav is going to come close to you, and there's no sense messing with a major hurricane capable of pushing a Category 3 storm surge to your doorstep. Don't test those Category 3 rated--but untested--levees. Conventional pre-Katrina wisdom suggested that the city needed 72 hours to evacuate. With the population about half of the pre-Katrina population, that lead time is about 60 hours. With Gustav likely to bring tropical storm force winds to the city by Monday afternoon, that means that tonight is a good time to start evacuating--Saturday morning at the latest. Voluntary evacuations have already begun, which is a good idea.
I think they should wait to see what the models say tonight. But tomorrow morning may be time to order the evacs.
Agreed. Though if I was living in NO, I would be heading out the door right now.
Looks like the eye of Gustav has opened up a little. He might weaken, but the convection around his eye is just crazy... if he can reform that eye, he will deepen incredibly fast.
Gustav has reached Category 2 status, with winds of 90 mph and a central pressure of 964 millibars.
He is expected to be a strong to max Category 4 hurricane on Sunday, according to the GDFL.
Personally, I think we will see Gustav peak around 905 millibars as a Category 5, with winds of 170 mph. I think he'll land as a weak cat4 to a strong cat3.
Please, to all along the coast -- keep an eye out for this one. He could do anything yet.
The AVN satellite infrared now shoes a clear, closed off eye. It's wrapped with convection, and now there appears to be little to stop Gustav from building strength.
Gonna be a rough start to the week along the Southern coastline.
905 is really really really low. I don't think we'll see it go that low. Its going to be damn strong though. I think it has a small chance to reach Cat 5 status.
Looks like the CNN weathermen failed and I was right
I would be packing up and getting all amityville horror house if I was in NOLA....get out!
The er is really starting to blow up at the moment. I don't know but this thing might hit Cat 4 before it even hits Cuba. If it does that then CH may be right with his pressure prediction. ing nuts.
I always say GET OUT to my kids before I pull into the garage.
The cone of uncertainty seems quite large for Gustav. Perhaps B2B should start planning his evacuation plan.
This thing has reached Cat 4 status and is below 1000 MB already.
Uh...I sure would. Gustav could be worse for New Orleans than Katrina was. Katrina hit New Orleans with the "weak" side. If Gustav hits in Central Louisiana (looking more likely), it'll hit New Orleans with the "strong" side:
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archiv...icanes/gustav/On Thursday and Friday some models, such as the GFDL, brought Gustav into Louisiana right over Plaquemines Parish, at an angle and location that would produce the worst possible surge in New Orleans. The panel below from yesterday's GFDL model shows category 4 winds blowing water directly into Lake Pontchartrain:
The above model run is just about the worst-case scenario for New Orleans. In such a scenario water would flood into the city from the lake, which could drown the city again, and possibly to an even worse degree.
Fortunately the model (as well as most others) now bring the storm just far enough west of New Orleans that the surge will likely be less than Katrina, but only a little.
If the forecast track shifts even modestly to the east -- say 50 miles, well within the three-day error of such forecasts -- then New Orleans faces an extremely serious event. It's worth noting, of course, that Gustav could just as easily shift another 100 miles to the west, all but ending the threat to New Orleans.
I just don't see ANY reason to hold Gustav back right now.
Practically no sheer once he emerges into the Gulf with a HUGE body of warm water.... and a loop current on top of that!
Rita and Katrina both passed over the loop current and exploded... I see much the same here. He's going to be incredible to watch -- and so beautiful too, even as sadly destructive as he is. The ability of mother nature to make such astonishing displays of power never ceases to amaze me.
Gustav is nearing Cat 4 status with a CP of 954 mbs.
The latest GFDL shows.....
Gustav becoming the 4th Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States. Scary. And that's been the most accurate model so far this year for hurricanes.
ROFLrofl
spurswoman are you gonna let him get away with that
I'm not sure how she would prove him wrong....
Oh yeah, I understand that. No need to explain it.
There's actually a ton of shear to the north right now and its not sure how fast that will clear out. what is amazing is that (they just got readings of cat four winds) he's gotten this strong with less than perfect conditions.I just don't see ANY reason to hold Gustav back right now.
Practically no sheer once he emerges into the Gulf with a HUGE body of warm water.... and a loop current on top of that!
Rita and Katrina both passed over the loop current and exploded... I see much the same here. He's going to be incredible to watch -- and so beautiful too, even as sadly destructive as he is. The ability of mother nature to make such astonishing displays of power never ceases to amaze me.
Gustav is nearing Cat 4 status with a CP of 954 mbs.
The latest GFDL shows.....
Gustav becoming the 4th Category 5 hurricane to make landfall in the United States. Scary. And that's been the most accurate model so far this year for hurricanes.
Scary.
Press 944 and they found 140kt fllight level winds so its probably up to 140 mph at the surface. Cuba is about to take it up the ass.
Oh and the windfield is getting larger. Thats bad bad bad for storm surge. This storm is just looking like Katrina 2 no matter how you slice it up.
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