Spurs 2012 Forecast

[Fireball]

Here is the Sports Illustrated preview:


SAN ANTONIO SPURS:

What they’ve got: San Antonio is hoping to get one more ring out of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. While they looked like eventual world champs during a 57-13 start last season, their six-game upset at the hands of the Grizzlies in the first round might have marked the end of an era.


What they need: The Spurs need to figure out the fate of small forward Richard Jefferson and power forward Antonio McDyess. Even if they don’t use the amnesty provision on Jefferson (three years and $30.5 million remaining), the clause makes it easier to move him; his contract would be seen as an expiring one. McDyess hinted at retirement at the end of last season, but has not said definitely what he will do. Rookie forward Kawhi Leonard, out of San Diego State, will help but not enough to offset the loss of guard George Hill, who was traded to the Pacers in June.


Bottom line: The Spurs will win on most nights, but they won’t win it all. Amick’s observations are cogent and his bottom line is kind of a barometer about what the national media is thinking about the Spurs.
Namely, expect a strong winning season, but don’t be surprised if we see the same kind of ending for the Spurs in the playoffs that has resulted in first-round ousters in two of the last three seasons.

EDIT: Since teams can only use the amnesty rule on players which they originally signed it does not get easier to trade RJ. That seems to be a mistake by SI.

[DPG21920]

The more time I've had to think about it, the more I really think acquiring Al Jefferson is the way to go if possible. I think if the Spurs do that, they can be a much more talented version of the Grizzlies and here's why:

1) Al Jefferson when healthy is a top 5 PF with regards to scoring. He has a pretty elite post game, can shoot from about 15 feet and is a solid rebounder. He would be playing the role of Zach Randolph and when healthy, Al is a better defender than Zach (given, that is not saying much)

2) Tim even though he has declined, still is highly effective overall on defense. He would be playing the Marc Gasol role on both sides of the ball. With Al to take the scoring load off of Tim, he will be free to anchor the defense, rebound at an elite level and he is an excellent passer on offense as well so you can run through him still.

3) The reason I say the Spurs would be a more talented version of the Grizz is because Al Jefferson/Tim would at worst equal Zbo/Gasol if they are healthy. The difference in talent lies with TP/Manu vs Conley/Allen. Both TP and Manu are above average defenders, and clearly superior on offense to Conley/Allen on most nights. Even though MEM meshes well, on pure talent, the Spurs backcourt has the overall advantage, even though you would say that Conley/Allen are better defensively than TP/Manu. But it's close enough to draw the comparison and with TP/Manu both being above average defenders, that is good enough.

4) Obviously the big advantage in the comparison with MEM vs SAS in this is at SF. With having Rudy Gay/Shane Battier (if he stays)/Sam Young, MEM can really crank up the defense at SF and with Rudy they have an excellent scorer at the position. If Leonard/Anderson can step up and/or the Spurs can sign a nice glue guy SF in FA, that gap can be closed enough to where I feel the Spurs can be built similar to the Grizz but have more talent bc Tim/Manu/TP/Al is overall a little superior to Zbo/Gasol/Gay/Conley.

That is why I believe getting Al Jefferson would be a pretty excellent thing to do at this point. How realistic that is remains to be seen, but since he would come via trade vs FA, I feel it is a little bit more realistic than getting a Nene type player.

[TD 21]

I agree with most of what you said. Granted, Jefferson has not been the same player since his knee injury and Randolph has seemingly gone up a level (though the fact that he was playing for his final big contract last season had to have helped), but there isn't a massive gap between the two and Jefferson is 4 years younger and has only 2 seasons left on his contract.

He'd obviously improve their chances of contending for what's likely the final 2 seasons of Duncan's and Ginobili's careers, but he would also serve as a building block going forward. Like it or not, it seems as if they intend to attempt to remain compe ive post Duncan/Ginobili. And a Parker/Anderson/Leonard/Jefferson/Splitter/Neal core, would likely do just that.

He's a sub par defender, but pair him with Duncan/Splitter and put him on a team that focuses on defense and there's no reason that he can't be a neutral defender. He'll always struggle guarding the Nowitzki/Bosh/Stoudemire types, but at least instead of getting destroyed by them and giving them a break on defense, they'd have to guard one of the best low post scorers in the game, which at least would take away some of their energy on offense. The other thing he'd allow them to do is flat out sit out Duncan some games and manage his workload throughout not just the regular season, but the playoffs.

[Ice009]

The more time I've had to think about it, the more I really think acquiring Al Jefferson is the way to go if possible. I think if the Spurs do that, they can be a much more talented version of the Grizzlies and here's why:

1) Al Jefferson when healthy is a top 5 PF with regards to scoring. He has a pretty elite post game, can shoot from about 15 feet and is a solid rebounder. He would be playing the role of Zach Randolph and when healthy, Al is a better defender than Zach (given, that is not saying much)

2) Tim even though he has declined, still is highly effective overall on defense. He would be playing the Marc Gasol role on both sides of the ball. With Al to take the scoring load off of Tim, he will be free to anchor the defense, rebound at an elite level and he is an excellent passer on offense as well so you can run through him still.

3) The reason I say the Spurs would be a more talented version of the Grizz is because Al Jefferson/Tim would at worst equal Zbo/Gasol if they are healthy. The difference in talent lies with TP/Manu vs Conley/Allen. Both TP and Manu are above average defenders, and clearly superior on offense to Conley/Allen on most nights. Even though MEM meshes well, on pure talent, the Spurs backcourt has the overall advantage, even though you would say that Conley/Allen are better defensively than TP/Manu. But it's close enough to draw the comparison and with TP/Manu both being above average defenders, that is good enough.

4) Obviously the big advantage in the comparison with MEM vs SAS in this is at SF. With having Rudy Gay/Shane Battier (if he stays)/Sam Young, MEM can really crank up the defense at SF and with Rudy they have an excellent scorer at the position. If Leonard/Anderson can step up and/or the Spurs can sign a nice glue guy SF in FA, that gap can be closed enough to where I feel the Spurs can be built similar to the Grizz but have more talent bc Tim/Manu/TP/Al is overall a little superior to Zbo/Gasol/Gay/Conley.

That is why I believe getting Al Jefferson would be a pretty excellent thing to do at this point. How realistic that is remains to be seen, but since he would come via trade vs FA, I feel it is a little bit more realistic than getting a Nene type player.

I like this post and I think Al Jefferson might just be the move I want to make. RJ would have to be the piece involved in the trade and then try and sign a wing with any money we have left over from the MLE.

I really love Al Jefferson's game on offense in the low block, so I agree that he would take a lot of pressure off of Tim in that area and that would be great for Tim IMO. He isn't a great defender, but he can improve and I think his offensive contributions would outweigh his negatives on defense.

[DMC]

It's so easy and obvious when someone predicts the same thing that happened last year.

I don't think the Spurs will win as many games this year, percentage wise. I don't think they will be atop the league or the conference, probably not even the division with Dallas being in there.

I think they will make the playoffs, but I think they will lose in the 1st round to OKC.

I hope they ring. I would love to be reminded of my predictions over and over.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

It all depends on peaking at the right time. Last season we peaked waaaay too early and then hit the wall at the ASB. This year we need to get it right.

I see us making the playoffs, but beyond that it's all about chemistry, timing, Timmy's knees and Manu's health.

[Ice009]

It all depends on peaking at the right time. Last season we peaked waaaay too early and then hit the wall at the ASB. This year we need to get it right.

I see us making the playoffs, but beyond that it's all about chemistry, timing, Timmy's knees and Manu's health.

Even with all those things we still need another decent big man or we're not really going anywhere.

[Mugen]

2nd round exit is probably the ceiling. but thats what they said about the mavs last year so ya never know.

gonna come down to the same as last year: injuries and pop not completely ing this team over.

[Ice009]

2nd round exit is probably the ceiling. but thats what they said about the mavs last year so ya never know.

gonna come down to the same as last year: injuries and pop not completely ing this team over.

Yeah, well, I wanted everyone to play against the Lakers and depending on if we won or lost that game sit everyone else for the Phoenix game if there was nothing to be gained by it.

I'm still mad about that decision. I didn't think LA were that good, but Pop kept going on about how great they were all season, and saying stuff like we're nowhere near as good as them. Really great way to build up the confidence of your team, and then when it comes to playing them he sits all the starters in another chicken move of his. I don't like that kind of stuff at all. He never used to do stuff like that.

[Mugen]

Yeah, well, I wanted everyone to play against the Lakers and depending on if we won or lost that game sit everyone else for the Phoenix game if there was nothing to be gained by it.

I'm still mad about that decision. I didn't think LA were that good, but Pop kept going on about how great they were all season, and saying stuff like we're nowhere near as good as them. Really great way to build up the confidence of your team, and then when it comes to playing them he sits all the starters in another chicken move of his. I don't like that kind of stuff at all. He never used to do stuff like that.

i was just fine with sitting everybody against LA but if u sit them that game then u might as well sit them against phoenix because the risks far outweigh the benefits.

even if CHI had the best record, i still considered them a longshot to reach the finals ahead of MIA and BOS and they end up getting curbstomped by the heat.

putting the guys in a position to get hurt in the last reg season game when he really didnt have to was inexcusable. not playing tiago til it was too late in the MEM series was the nail in the coffin on a lot of really WTF moves made by Pop last season.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Even with all those things we still need another decent big man or we're not really going anywhere.

Absolutely. No idea where we're going to conjure one from though, unless it's by trading TP.

Once trading season opens we'll be able to more fully assess what the team might be trying to do.

[ace3g]

WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
One league official says there are seven NBA teams that have two stretches of 5 games in 6 nights this season. Good luck with that.

[Fireball]

WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
One league official says there are seven NBA teams that have two stretches of 5 games in 6 nights this season. Good luck with that.

I really hope the Spurs are able to dodge that and only have to play B2B2B once. In the last seasons they were lucky concerning the number of B2B games ...

[Obstructed_View]

WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
One league official says there are seven NBA teams that have two stretches of 5 games in 6 nights this season. Good luck with that.

The official neglected to mention that the Spurs do it three times...

[TDMVPDPOY]

the problem is our roster, we can pad the regular season but whats the point if we get out in the first round and stuck with the last draft pick...

imo changes need to be made with the roster....

[cutewizard]

it all depends really on what we can get from this free agency pool

i hope we really can get someone

its so tense to watch

but its exciting to dream that we can get some quality players

[cutewizard]

just speculating but say, say we obtain a center then get a small forward, then add say Yi , lets see how it goes


Nene or Nene equivalent at center
Duncan at power forward
Howard or Howard equivalent at small forward
Manu (or Neal or Anderson) at guard
Parker

not bad huh??

but it gets better at the bench, look:

Tiago at center (best relieving center in the NBA)
Blair at power forward (power there huh)
Yi Jianlian at small forward (Nowitzki like player, he can hit the three)
Leonard or Anderson
Manu or Neal

thats a very strong second unit, probably the strongest on earth!!!!
\
yeah, make it happen front office!!!!

[cutewizard]

, im starting to get excited this season

LOL

[cutewizard]

im excited to see that we can have the best second unit on the planet....
and that bodes ill for the other teams


oh , yeah!


go Spurs go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cutewizard]

the key to this season is DEPTH




DEPTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[G-Dawgg]

Right now the Spurs don't have enough firepower or enough chemistry to be a true contender. The Spurs might have a chance if they signed Nene AND Caron Butler which is impossible, short of doing that they are officially in rebuilding mode. The only way they'll ever contend again before Duncan and Ginobili retire is if they make a huge trade or signing...just saying.

[Fireball]

Right now the Spurs don't have enough firepower or enough chemistry to be a true contender.

Chemistry would only be a problem if the Spurs signed some key free agents. If not chemistry is the main thing which will carry them into the playoffs. You're right about the contender thing though ...

[Fireball]

, im starting to get excited this season

LOL

Excitement all over the place, but your multiple posts and your bouncing ball avatar just increase my blood pressure

[eric365]

WojYahooNBA Adrian Wojnarowski
One league official says there are seven NBA teams that have two stretches of 5 games in 6 nights this season. Good luck with that.

Don't even make the Big 3 travel for the 2nd game of the B2B2B and it will be OK

[TDMVPDPOY]

imo tank and draft drummond

resign duncan to vet

amnesty rj

get d12 max money....problem solve