2012 Finals Matchups. Who has the edge?

[TIMMYtoZO]

Game 1 can't get here any sooner.

[DPG21920]

Needing the step ladder to get to the booster seat to sit at the computer.

you needing to sit down when you pee

[DPG21920]

DoK, put into context how much worse the Spurs are at defending the shot compared to the league average. You keep saying "they are one of the worst in the league" but what does that really mean when compared to what the Spurs average and what the league averages. That's what I'm talking about - but you already know that.

Again, the key is not that they shot better, it's that they shot freakishly better for 4 games in a row. They weren't all wide open looks either, it's just something you are saying to justify the percentages. We're there open looks? No doubt - but okc made several contested tough long twos as well.

[djohn2oo8]

you needing to sit down when you pee

I really don't think you realize how fluky (for lack of a better word) what okc did vs the Spurs was. Not that they won, but HOW they won.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

I already proved that they didn't shoot "freakishly" better. They shot within 1 standard deviation of their average. Of all the possible shooting percentages they could have had, this percentage falls in right blue area of this graph:



That's not even close to being classified as a fluke.

[DPG21920]

The Thunder made 52.7% of their two-pointers outside of 15 feet for the series. Normally, OKC shoots 42.6% from that range. Normally, the Spurs allow their opponents to shoot 40.6% from that range. But, unfortunately for the Spurs, the Thunder’s long-range shooting was abnormally deadly this series. Yes, San Antonio gave up some perimeter looks by design, but 52.7% isn’t sustainable by any team (or any player, for that matter) over the long haul. That said, give the Thunder credit. Their players stepped up and knocked down the most inefficient shots in the game of basketball at a shockingly efficient rate.

Oklahoma City’s marksmanship extended beyond the three-point line. The Thunder shot 40.4% on three-pointers for the series, which is up from their regular season accuracy (36%) and much better than they shot in the first two rounds (even though the Lakers and Mavs are poor at defending the three-point line and the Spurs are elite). Again, give the Thunder all the credit.

How much did OKC’s shooting from the perimeter influence this series? If the Thunder shoot their usual percentage from the perimeter, they would have scored 37 fewer points -- or 99.7 points per game instead of 105.8. Do you think that would have made a difference? Yeah, so do I.

Am I wrong in thinking that while going from 42% to 52% is a 10% difference that it's actually ~25% increase over what they normally do (10/42= 24%) or am I brain-farting?

Also I don't see where you're getting your numbers in context ( maybe this includes the jump in 3's as well).

[DPG21920]

That doesn't make any sense.

[djohn2oo8]

That doesn't make any sense.

Neither does complaining about flukiness.

[DPG21920]

So the fact you are shorter than me & pee sitting down down while trying to make fun of me being short has to do what with complaining about "flukes"?

This is my assessment of the Heat v OKC. I may be wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

Am I wrong in thinking that while going from 42% to 52% is a 10% difference that it's actually ~25% increase over what they normally do (10/42= 24%) or am I brain-farting?

Also I don't see where you're getting your numbers in context ( maybe this includes the jump in 3's as well).

I took their shooting % from 15-23 feet in each of their regular season games and found the standard deviation of the 66 percentages, i.e., how much their shooting from that area varies game by game. You'll be hard pressed to find an NBA site that uses standard deviation if you're wondering where I got it.

Which other numbers are you referring to?

[djohn2oo8]

So the fact you are shorter than me & pee sitting down down while trying to make fun of me being short has to do what with complaining about "flukes"?

This is my assessment of the Heat v OKC. I may be wrong, and it wouldn't be the first time.

No. The fact you can't admit to when you're wrong and have an excuse for everything.

[DPG21920]

I took their shooting % from 15-23 feet in each of their regular season games and found the standard deviation of the 66 percentages, i.e., how much their shooting from that area varies game by game. You'll be hard pressed to find an NBA site that uses standard deviation if you're wondering where I got it.

Which other numbers are you referring to?

The ones that Timvp used that essentially said their abnormal perimeter shooting accounted for 6 points a game dropping them from an average of 105 ppg to 99 ppg which obviously makes quite the difference.

[baseline bum]

Which city will be more butthurt off a le: Seattle if the Sonics ring or Cleveland if LeBron does?

[DPG21920]

No. The fact you can't admit to when you're wrong and have an excuse for everything.

So, you don't make sense then like I thought. And you are short

Also, I admitted I was wrong about the Mavs. I paid $500 for it. So now you're a liar who pees sitting down.

[djohn2oo8]

Which city will be more butthurt off a le: Seattle if the Sonics ring or Cleveland if LeBron does?

Cleveland. He left and they burned his jerseys. They may commit suicide if he rings.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

The ones that Timvp used that essentially said their abnormal perimeter shooting accounted for 6 points a game dropping them from an average of 105 ppg to 99 ppg which obviously makes quite the difference.

2.5 shots in each of the 4 games (31 of 75 rather than 41 of 75) so 5 points per game if they shot their average. That said it's stupid having the expectation OKC shoots their average when Popovich's defensive scheme gave OKC the looks it did from 15-23 feet. The Spurs aren't a good enough defense where you can realistically expect them to limit OKC's interior scoring, FT shooting and 3 point shooting while not letting them get open 15-23 foot looks. The Spurs also let teams shoot above their average from that area all season.

[baseline bum]

I hope some of those bags from the Save Our Sonics movie show up to OKC in Seattle gear. That would be classic tbh.

[DPG21920]

Also acting like I'm not bringing any valid sort of arguments and just going GNSF and crying about the refs. There's a huge difference in making bs excuses and having a take as to what happened, even if it's not popular. I said what Timvp said in his thread all series (ask DD) but without the research that Timvp applied to validate it. His thread cemented what I thought by watching the games (multiple times) & doing basic stat work on my own.

You may call it whining, I call it my assessment. It's not like I'm going all Rocket fan and saying ridiculous stuff like they will be a 2nd seed.

[DPG21920]

2.5 shots in each of the 4 games (31 of 75 rather than 41 of 75) so 5 points per game if they shot their average. That said it's stupid having the expectation OKC shoots their average when Popovich's defensive scheme gave OKC the looks it did from 15-23 feet. The Spurs aren't a good enough defense where you can realistically expect them to limit OKC's interior scoring, FT shooting and 3 point shooting while not letting them get open 15-23 foot looks. The Spurs also let teams shoot above their average from that area all season.

Sure, but our beef is how impactful or improbable their jump was over a sustainable period of time. No one shoots like they did over the course of several games and the Spurs game plan isn't rocket science or different than many other teams - they all know the long two is the shot to give up.

[djohn2oo8]

So, you don't make sense then like I thought. And you are short

Also, I admitted I was wrong about the Mavs. I paid $500 for it. So now you're a liar who pees sitting down.

Not about dem Spurs though.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

The long 2 is the shot to give up till it beats you. It's not sustainable because most of the time the other team's coach adjusts and takes the 15-23 foot shot away with simple tweeks. Popovich didn't do that at all. If Spoelstra does the same thing Popovich does, I expect the same type of shooting performance to happen again, but Miami was better at defending the shot than San Antonio was during the regular season so I don't expect that to happen.

[PublicOption]

Bull has the edge and you're the sucker(s)

[DPG21920]

The long 2 is the shot to give up till it beats you. It's not sustainable because most of the time the other team's coach adjusts and takes the 15-23 foot shot away with simple tweeks. Popovich didn't do that at all. If Spoelstra does the same thing Popovich does, I expect the same type of shooting performance to happen again, but Miami was better at defending the shot than San Antonio was during the regular season so I don't expect that to happen.

Again, in the scheme of things I disagree that an improvement in anyone area that leads to 5-6 ppg difference is significant. Especially when the difference in the 2nd worst team (Spurs at 40%) & average (league at 38%) is really not a large gap and all are largely not great.

[PublicOption]

I hope some of those bags from the Save Our Sonics movie show up to OKC in Seattle gear. That would be classic tbh.

The league will not allow them in

[Norris Cole]

Spurs lost

Blew an 18 pt lead and choked away game 5.