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Galveston TV stations are recommending Waco, College Station, Austin, and SA.
Houston TV stations too.
I'm hearing San Antonio will see a large influx of evacuees because of Rita.
Galveston TV stations are recommending Waco, College Station, Austin, and SA.
Houston TV stations too.
However, that layer is very shallow. The THC (total heat content) of the ocean there isnt' very strong. Here, I'll show you some graphics to illustrate what I'm saying.
These are the tempatures
This is the total heat content
The places with about 90 KJcm2 are the places you will see a cyclone intensify rapidly. There are some locations like that across the gulf, but it isn't as hot as it was before Katrina. Even though it has been a month, that storm took quite a bit of energy out of the Gulf.
It still is possible though. So we will see.
This image shows some examples of how that happens with 3 storms that went over "hotspots" in THCP.
Hurricane Opal in the Gulf of Mexico, August-September 1995 (left):
This TC intensified from hurricane-1 (74-95 mph winds) to hurricane 4 (131-155 mph winds) while traveling over a number of warm features in the Gulf of Mexico. In particular, this TC suddenly intensified from hurricane-2 (96-110 mph winds) to hurricane-4 in a period of 10 hours when its track went over a very well defined ring with a mean radius of 150 km that had been shed by the Loop Current. Altimeter-derived fields indicate that the increase in TCHP associated with this warm ring was approximately 30 kJ/cm2. The most striking information of the ocean conditions during the life span of this hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico was that this warm ring was not detected using the AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature fields.
Hurricane Mitch in the Caribbean Sea, October 1998 (center):
This cyclone intensified from hurricane 2 to hurricane 5 (winds above 155 mph) when its track traveled over a region of warm surface waters, experiencing an intensification from hurricane 3 (111-130 mph winds) to 5 with an increase in values of TCHP approximately 80 kJ/cm2 under the track of the TC in 22 hours.
Hurricane Bret in the Gulf of Mexico, August 1999 (right):
This hurricane intensified several times in the SW Gulf of Mexico in a period of approximately 36 hours while traveling over two warm features remnants of one warm ring that had been shed by the Loop Current several months earlier. The increase in TCHP under the track of the TC during this period was approximately 80 kJ/cm2.
In these cases an association was observed between the increase in TC intensity and a raise in the value of TCHP under the track of each of the TCs. Preliminary evaluation of the upper ocean thermal conditions during the intensification of 32 of the 36 strongest TCs in the tropical Atlantic from 1993 to 2000 indicates that their intensification can be associated with the passage of their tracks over regions, with increased TCHP of at least 20 kJ/cm2.
Left is Opal, center is Mitch, and to the right is Brett.
Manny, you've got too much time on your hands
I eat this up. Seriously. I love all weather, but hurricane season is just me waiting for the next storm. My mom tells me I used to watch the Weather Channel as a kid. When I was like 7. I crack up when I think about that.
Yea I have been there a few times... there are a few hot latina chicks that's about it...
I want the storm to hit us.. and the power to go out.. storms are fun...
Now the last GFDL brings it even further south. That is the red track. Yes, the one that eventually brings it right over San Antonio.
Damn, I'm supposed to be in victoria on business next Monday. Maybe not
These model runs are a lot more accurate than the previous ones. These have a lot of upper air recon info input into them,and notice how they have all clustered because of that.
Not looking that good for us here.
Yeah, looks like life is fixing to suck for Corpus as well.
Son of a , bas . That ing thing seems to be heading straight for victoria. And SA.
This sucks!
Watch.. an oak will fall on my house and i'll be like "uh. .dumbass" for wishing it here...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005...graphics.shtml
Check out the 3-day track graphics archive. It's been damn consistent the whole time.
Thank God for homeowner's insurance. I wish my house would get totalled, the way it's been going it would be waaay easier to rebuild than it has been to remodel.
If it came this way, what kind of intensity would it have this far inland?
ROFLMFAO @ waiting it out for the coast guard & FEMA to save him
It would have to be a monster for SA to see anything more than tropical storm winds...and only a low to moderate TS at that.Thank God for homeowner's insurance. I wish my house would get totalled, the way it's been going it would be waaay easier to rebuild than it has been to remodel.
If it came this way, what kind of intensity would it have this far inland?
ROFLMFAO @ waiting it out for the coast guard & FEMA to save him
SA would be in danger from tornados dropping out of the system and from flooding from heavy rains.
(that was a joke, btw...I'm not stupid)
Yeah, last time we had remnants blow through, there were tornados. Lots of damage at Kelly, and the roof was taken off of a gas station at 281/Bitters.
Ex, when was that? I lived right at 281/Bitters growing up and don't recall that (I'm assuming you're talking about the Diamond Shamrock at the intersection). I remember when Gilbert came in and all the tornados around the I 10/1604 end of town, but not in my area.
dang...big shift down the coast during the night...If this baby hits Port Aransas as a strong 3/weak 4 it is gonna seriously tear some stuff up...the real estate market has been booming like crazy down there and a lot of KB quality/custom priced has been thrown up on the island that only sits 4-5 feet above sea level...
Nothing like a good hurricane to knock the bloom off a crazy coastal real estate market...
My money is on the Seadrift/Port Lavaca area.
we should have a good idea in the morning. The models have been really accurate this year from 3 days out..
Here's the update as of 10 minutes ago...it's a hurricane.
000
WTNT63 KNHC 201311
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005
DOPPLER RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PRESSURE FALLS FROM
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE 11 AM...1500Z ADVISORY.
FORECASTER AVILA
here's the discussion from 0400L
THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF RITA IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...
BUT THE CYCLONE STILL LACKS A CLEAR AND PERSISTENT EYEWALL
SIGNATURE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STILL DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT UPGRADING
RITA TO A HURRICANE. A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 72 KT WOULD
CORRESPOND TO 65 KT AT THE SURFACE IN AN EYEWALL...BUT RITA DOES
NOT HAVE A TRUE EYEWALL AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT 90 PERCENT
IS NOT THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. THE
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT.
RITA REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/13.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE EARLY
GOING...AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS...UKMET...
AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS STILL ON THE SOUTH END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE WESTWARD TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THIS
POINT IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHERE THE GULF LANDFALL MIGHT
OCCUR.
RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH VERY SOON. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT NOT
OVERLY SO...WITH OUTFLOW A LITTLE SQUASHED TO THE NORTH AND
NON-EXISTENT TO THE SOUTH...AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. EVEN THE RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS
ELONGATED. STEADY...BUT NOT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE UPPER PATTERN COULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THE MOST RECENT SHIPS GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
QUITE GET RITA THERE...AND I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF RITA ENDS UP
FALLING JUST SHORT OF THAT THRESHOLD.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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