Team Derpality. Don't fall for the tricks of the Covid "truthers."

[baseline bum]

Not related, but first time I visited Tokyo I still smoked, and I was walking through the city burning a cig without thinking twice. I'm also 6'3" and white as , so you stand out like a nun in a house... not a single person said anything to me, avoided eye contact even though they were intrigued as (very geneous city, no Westerners can be seen outside 100ft of a hotel). Well, turns out smoking is illegal in public, unless you're huddled around a public ashtray, which usually have like 300 people around them... they smoke a lot.

Other ed up thing is there are no public trash cans. City is clean as , littering is basically unseen, but you can't find a place to throw you coffee cup unless you go into a restaurant, office, or your home.

And if you can say anything whatsoever in Japanese everyone will tell you 日本語上手 = nihongo jouzu = you're skilled in Japanese

[ElNono]

Not related, but first time I visited Tokyo I still smoked, and I was walking through the city burning a cig without thinking twice. I'm also 6'3" and white as , so you stand out like a nun in a house... not a single person said anything to me, avoided eye contact even though they were intrigued as (very geneous city, no Westerners can be seen outside 100ft of a hotel). Well, turns out smoking is illegal in public, unless you're huddled around a public ashtray, which usually have like 300 people around them... they smoke a lot.

Other ed up thing is there are no public trash cans. City is clean as , littering is basically unseen, but you can't find a place to throw you coffee cup unless you go into a restaurant, office, or your home.

lol... and don't forget the 'san' after every name, tbh... big deal there.

[baseline bum]

lol... and don't forget the 'san' after every name, tbh... big deal there.

and say んじゃん nzhaan or njaan at the end of every sentence to sound like a 15 year old

[Splits]

lol... and don't forget the 'san' after every name, tbh... big deal there.

omg in emails too...

[SnakeBoy]

I'm not buying that at all. Tokyo and many other Japanese cities have unbelievably jam packed trains. Even when they're not fully loaded in the pandemic they're still not anywhere near empty, they still look pretty full by American standards. One thing Japanese don't do on trains though is talk... at all, period. So not nearly as much opportunity to create / breathe in droplets as say riding the NY subway where people talk to each other, talk on cell phones, and so on. If it just aerosol transmission instead of droplets wouldn't you expect a huge number of infections from subway riders just from normal breathing? Those particles would be light enough to be spread by simple exhalation when breathing wouldn't they? And they won't be caught by surgical masks. People aren't wearing N95 masks out there.

Well I'm not buying that at all. They say this virus doesn't transmit well via surface contact and you're saying it isn't airborne. If it only spreads easily through person to person droplet transmission then it's less efficient than ebola. I'd say that is a pretty far fetched idea.

Not worth debating though. The mask debate is over, everyone is wearing them. If masks are the answer then we won't see big outbreaks anymore. Let's see what happens here and around the globe over the next 6-12 months. My money is still on the virus is just doing what it does and we're just flapping our arms in the winds pretending we are in control.

In the article I linked it gives some other theories why Japan has been spared so far. Here's some more in this article.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

One dude says they have immunity from a previous unidentified coronavirus outbreak while the Prime Minister just says it's because they are the superior race

[baseline bum]

Well I'm not buying that at all. They say this virus doesn't transmit well via surface contact and you're saying it isn't airborne. If it only spreads easily through person to person droplet transmission then it's less efficient than ebola. I'd say that is a pretty far fetched idea.

Not worth debating though. The mask debate is over, everyone is wearing them. If masks are the answer then we won't see big outbreaks anymore. Let's see what happens here and around the globe over the next 6-12 months. My money is still on the virus is just doing what it does and we're just flapping our arms in the winds pretending we are in control.

In the article I linked it gives some other theories why Japan has been spared so far. Here's some more in this article.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53188847

One dude says they have immunity from a previous unidentified coronavirus outbreak while the Prime Minister just says it's because they are the superior race

The rules of the three C's are all broken by commuting on the subway though. I find it really hard to believe the masks aren't a large part of their success. If it was just luck with timing it would have surely caught up with them a little later. And Japanese master race need to remind them of Midway tbh.

[Warlord23]

This research answers the question of why Trump cultists are also likely to be Covidiots

[tholdren]

It all stated with that Aaron Ginn Medium article posted in mid-March, which to be fair, did have some useful content and challenged the prevailing projections at the time of 60 million infected/2 million dead. Ginn's analysis was correct in that regard. But since then, Ginn, among other truthers, led by a pulp novelist named Alex Berenson have went off the reservation with their denial and have sadly manipulated the tholdren's of the world along with more reasonable people (like TSA) into believing Covid "isn't that bad" and/or that we have already crushed the curve. So they conclude that any headline claiming Covid deaths are rising is simply "fear mongering" by the mainstream media.

This is the primary data they use.



What you're looking it is the weekly death toll from the CDC. The "truthers" will plot on a graph like this and then say, "See. Look how we've flattened!"

Big image, so I'll just post the link.

https://imgur.com/9hk4HlY

What this image is illustrating is the difference between the time the deaths actually occurred and when they were added to the various data tracking sites that the media use to report daily deaths. On July 4th, you can see the difference between the CDC (orange bar) and the Covidtracking project's (blue bar) count. The reason for the former's higher count is because backlogged cases that happened weeks or months ago are finally getting tallied. So with this, the truthers conclude that daily deaths are being grossly over-reported and there's really no e happening at all! It's just backlogged data finally being added.

But what they fail to omit is that the CDC only counts deaths when they receive an OFFICIAL death certificate. How long does it take to get a death certificate?



Boiled down. The CDC's data lags by weeks, maybe months, since death certificates can sometimes take months. "Team reality" fell for this phenomenon before when they were sharing this popular image.



And what happened when the data caught up?



This twitter user sums it up:

Lol. And here comes the 180. You realize that the covid "truthers" point is that you cannot justify lockdown or count pandemic using backlogged deaths.

Why?

Because for months you have stated that daily deaths meant that the pandemic was still going strong.

This is actually 3 month old news. It has just taken you this long to understand this reporting problem.

Shocking that you just now understand this.

No one fails to "omit" anything other than states fail to omit timely data.

Just wait until you understand case count and nosocomial issues.

[midnightpulp]

Lol. And here comes the 180. You realize that the covid "truthers" point is that you cannot justify lockdown or count pandemic using backlogged deaths.

Why?

Because for months you have stated that daily deaths meant that the pandemic was still going strong.

This is actually 3 month old news. It has just taken you this long to understand this reporting problem.

Shocking that you just now understand this.

No one fails to "omit" anything other than states fail to omit timely data.

Just wait until you understand case count and nosocomial issues.

See that tweet of "How many times has this being explained to them? Their skulls are so thick that even a diamond drill couldn't get through."

That is you.

Anyhow, yes you in' can justify lockdowns with alarming increases in deaths over a 7 day moving average, especially if case counts and hospitalizations are tracking with those increasing deaths. You seem to believe that ALL recent deaths are backlogged deaths just now added. No. Some recent deaths are also being added.

Example. Let's say Texas had a 7 day average of 50 deaths between May 7-14. Or 350 deaths over that week. 300 were from backlogs while 50 were from that week. Texas's moving 7 day is 82, or around 560 deaths per week. If 300 were from backlogs and 260 from that week, then the death total going up is being driven entirely by new deaths based on how they report the data. It's not being driven by backlogs. But yeah, keep believing this peak is being driven entirely by backlogs and doesn't forecast a trend. You'd have to be stuck on stupid to believe that an increased positive rate (Texas was reporting about an 8 percent positive rate as month ago vs. around a 20 percent positive rate over this past week) and increased hospitalizations aren't going to translate into more deaths. This e just didn't come out of nowhere.



Texas's hospitalization curve. Look how linear the case, hospitalization, and death curves are tracking.



What do I always tell you? Wear a mask, stay home, and maybe write Abbott to get more forceful with a lockdown strategy. "Muh Freedumbs" has sent Texas into exponential territory.

[tholdren]

See that tweet of "How many times has this being explained to them? Their skulls are so thick that even a diamond drill couldn't get through."

That is you.

Anyhow, yes you in' can justify lockdowns with alarming increases in deaths over a 7 day moving average, especially if case counts and hospitalizations are tracking with those increasing deaths. You seem to believe that ALL recent deaths are backlogged deaths just now added. No. Some recent deaths are also being added.

Example. Let's say Texas had a 7 day average of 50 deaths between May 7-14. Or 350 deaths over that week. 300 were from backlogs while 50 were from that week. Texas's moving 7 day is 82, or around 560 deaths per week. If 300 were from backlogs and 260 from that week, then the death total going up is being driven entirely by new deaths based on how they report the data. It's not being driven by backlogs. But yeah, keep believing this peak is being driven entirely by backlogs and doesn't forecast a trend. You'd have to be stuck on stupid to believe that an increased positive rate (Texas was reporting about an 8 percent positive rate as month ago vs. around a 20 percent positive rate over this past week) and increased hospitalizations aren't going to translate into more deaths. This e just didn't come out of nowhere.



Texas's hospitalization curve. Look how linear the case, hospitalization, and death curves are tracking.



What do I always tell you? Wear a mask, stay home, and maybe write Abbott to get more forceful with a lockdown strategy. "Muh Freedumbs" has sent Texas into exponential territory.

Lol no. You cannot. The profanity doesn't rectify your ignorance. But its hilarious to watch you try.

You still can't even determine true hospitalizations, probables, nosocomial, etc. The data you are trying to present in no way fully represents what you think. Which is the point. Locdowns didn't do what you claim, nor can the data you use justify any economic closures.

Lol loud and clear you don't "get it"

Cute thread tho

[tholdren]

See that tweet of "How many times has this being explained to them? Their skulls are so thick that even a diamond drill couldn't get through."

That is you.

Anyhow, yes you in' can justify lockdowns with alarming increases in deaths over a 7 day moving average, especially if case counts and hospitalizations are tracking with those increasing deaths. You seem to believe that ALL recent deaths are backlogged deaths just now added. No. Some recent deaths are also being added.

Example. Let's say Texas had a 7 day average of 50 deaths between May 7-14. Or 350 deaths over that week. 300 were from backlogs while 50 were from that week. Texas's moving 7 day is 82, or around 560 deaths per week. If 300 were from backlogs and 260 from that week, then the death total going up is being driven entirely by new deaths based on how they report the data. It's not being driven by backlogs. But yeah, keep believing this peak is being driven entirely by backlogs and doesn't forecast a trend. You'd have to be stuck on stupid to believe that an increased positive rate (Texas was reporting about an 8 percent positive rate as month ago vs. around a 20 percent positive rate over this past week) and increased hospitalizations aren't going to translate into more deaths. This e just didn't come out of nowhere.



Texas's hospitalization curve. Look how linear the case, hospitalization, and death curves are tracking.



What do I always tell you? Wear a mask, stay home, and maybe write Abbott to get more forceful with a lockdown strategy. "Muh Freedumbs" has sent Texas into exponential territory.

Also, yes. There are 10s of thousands of undetected cases that are now being reported as ab or suspected positives. This is your out of nowhere cases. But continue and tell us more aboit out of nowhere....

[midnightpulp]

Lol no. You cannot. The profanity doesn't rectify your ignorance. But its hilarious to watch you try.

You still can't even determine true hospitalizations, probables, nosocomial, etc. The data you are trying to present in no way fully represents what you think. Which is the point. Locdowns didn't do what you claim, nor can the data you use justify any economic closures.

Lol loud and clear you don't "get it"

Cute thread tho

Yes, yes, nothing to see here. These es are all backlogs and everything is peachy in reality. The constant news reports from various hard hit hospitals were actually written during the Spanish Flu and are now just being released.

Yes or no? Serious cases are actually declining in reality.

The bolded point is a moving target. Justifying an economic lockdown depends on what tradeoffs society is willing to make. For some societies, 10 million deaths might not be enough to justify a lockdown. For others, it might be a 100 deaths.

My feelings. Businesses can be rebuilt. Economies can recover. Dead people can't. Sorry, O'Sheas Bar and Grill going under is less important to me than even a 75 year old getting an extra ten years of life.

"B-B-But all the suicides and despair that the lockdowns will cause." Life expectancy actually rose during the Great Depression.

https://www.history.com/news/great-d...ife-expectancy

[midnightpulp]

Here's how one of the known truthers used the backfill effect to downplay Florida's situation. "Only 413 deaths in July despite all the days of 100+ plus deaths in July. See, backlogs were driving these es the evil fear mongering media was telling us were current."

And then the data caught up.


TSA

[midnightpulp]

[TheGreatYacht]

Let that sink in ma nig...

[tholdren]

Here's how one of the known truthers used the backfill effect to downplay Florida's situation. "Only 413 deaths in July despite all the days of 100+ plus deaths in July. See, backlogs were driving these es the evil fear mongering media was telling us were current."

And then the data caught up.


TSA

Lol you dont even understand case and death count. Keep gossiping