Spurs need Jalen Duren

[Degoat]

The reason I’d be on board with Jalen Duren as our pick is the spurs current bigs just don’t cut it Imo if we wanna be a playoff team again we need to find a big who is a game changer. I was watching the warriors vs nuggets game the other night and they made life a living for Jokic, both draymond and Looney defended him excellent. Jakob and Collins literally give Jokic anything he wants and the same goes for the other talented bigs in our league, I mean even Valanciunas carved up Jakob…

[exstatic]

Can anyone share details why Duren's ceiling is high, other than being young and physically gifted? Is it playmaking? Shooting? The video clips I see are dunking and blocking shots.

From The Stepien

Archetype #3: The Vertical Dominator

NBA Examples: Jarrett Allen, Robert Williams, John Collins, Larry Nance Jr.

Core Competencies: Blocks, Dunks, Rim Finishing, Offensive Rebounds

Baseline Requirements: Not just being a great vertical athlete but knowing when and how to commit while providing a baseline of skills and physicality elsewhere on the court. Be an elite lob threat, but not at the sacrifice of versatility

Connects: Traditional guards and wing finishers

Prospects With a Chance to Thrive as Vertical Dominators:

1. Jalen Duren, Memphis

Secondary Archetype: Body Bagger


I wrote about Duren at length as, alongside Chet Holmgren (more on him soon), one of the elite rim protection prospects in this class. While there is a clear overlap between rim protection and this archetype, namely ability to get blocks, Duren also checks all the boxes on the offensive end while being one of the most versatile defensive prospects in general, rim protector or not.

First off, Duren is a flat-out incredible vertical athlete, with his great wingspan, quick leaping and max vertical. It is difficult to throw a lob out of range for the big, even if he ends up measuring only 6’9-10’’ rather than his listed 6’11’’. Beyond that, he’s incredibly strong for being the youngest prospect in the class, with great hands to guide the ball to the basket.

Duren would also qualify as a decent chance to be a Body Bagger with his constant physicality and good passing instincts and accuracy. Memphis lacked proper spacing and guard play, limiting Duren’s assist numbers and use as a pure roll threat as I believe both will look spectacular in an NBA system. With broad shoulders and decent footwork, it’s easy to picture him becoming one of the best screeners in the league as well.

From a different The Stepien article.

Rim Protector Type #1: Stay Home Bigs

To qualify: Defend over 20% of shots at the rim, and share of shots defended decreases every four feet interval.

Motto: “Keep away from the rim with size”

Prime examples: Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid


Size is the name of the game for Stay Home bigs, though the ability to cover the few feet on either side of the hoop in a short amount of time is also key. But those who succeed in this spot have to have elite standing reach.

Rudy Gobert barely has to jump to block out the entire basket with his 9’7’’ standing reach, though has perfect footwork to maximize that frame as well. Embiid is a slightly shorter 9’5’’ standing reach, but even quicker to slide. In fact, he helps enough on the perimeter to classify as a Some Help big, but he would be as good as any as a pure drop big as well.

Another wrinkle key for this position is to be able to clear out the rim area for rebounds. Because these defenders are often trusted as the sole rim protectors who stay glued to the paint, they need to be a one-man rebounding crew

Duren is here for being only 6’10’’ (in some places reported as 6’9”) and still raw, but his physical gifts are special. Duren is able to clear out room with his strength, even as he just turned 18 playing against players multiple years older, but may still struggle to size up the true bigs in the NBA. I may have unfairly dinged him here because I prefer him in other categories, as I would still be comfortable using him in a drop role.

Rim Protector Type #2: Some Help Bigs

To qualify: Defend over 20% of shots at the rim, share of shots defended decreases every four feet further away except for one zone when they increase

Motto: “Use size to protect the rim but also plug select spots on perimeter”

1. Jalen Duren


Yea, here we go. These clips may not be super exciting, as Duren has plenty of highlight blocks. But here we see how smooth Duren is sliding, and how he can maintain his size during recovery to dominate contested rebounds. While the Memphis defense can be messy (and often with confusing scheme), Duren takes good slide angles and can recover quickly. This classification maximizes all of Duren’s physical tools, as you still want him near the basket most of the time, though with the ability to come out and wreck actions selectively.

Rim Protector Type #3: Unicorn

To qualify: Defend over 20% at the rim, shots defended increases twice as you move away from basket

Motto: “Be a presence everywhere at all times”


3. Jalen Duren


Duren joins Holmgren in the three-role club. Duren is an incredibly smooth mover, wreaking havoc no matter where he goes. The one issue is, being a little shorter and stockier, Duren would have to rely more on his leaping, and therefore be more sound in committing to his decisions. But Duren seems very capable of this at his young age, for example in the first clip foiling two different two-on-one attempts in one play. Duren’s ability to read actions already as the youngest prospect in the class, when tied to his athletic skills, means he has sky-high potential as a defender, everywhere on the court.

[The Truth #6]

Like you said being young and physically gifted is the main strenghts of Duren. The ceilling is on ( exactly what you said) the passing, who starts to be interesting and the shooting from 5-6 ft, he showed some flashes, not something unbelivable but that he can shoot the ball especially from the left and right elbow ( left side, beyond the paint and baseline).

here's the trad of the tweet. "We knew Jalen Duren for his powerful aerial finishes & his impressive circle protection at his age. But what I prefer this year are the pass & shoot flashes, which we saw this summer at EYBL. He has just turned 18, the potential is immense"

If Duren could hit that jumper consistently, then that could be huge for him. He has to have some, at least minimal, offensive skill when the ball is already in his hands. Pick and pop. Pick and roll. I imagine that would be his offense in the beginning if the jumper was actually real. He doesn't seem to have any low post skills, which is still a concern. Anyway, I'm dubious the Spurs would pick him but they would have to see potential in work outs, which are often misleading, and I don't see this guy's agent taking him to the combine. We'll see. If he has a questionable motor/work ethic, then that is a hard pass for me. He will have to work really hard at being great for him to get even halfway there, but that's the same for any draft pick.

[exstatic]

If Duren could hit that jumper consistently, then that could be huge for him. He has to have some, at least minimal, offensive skill when the ball is already in his hands. Pick and pop. Pick and roll. I imagine that would be his offense in the beginning if the jumper was actually real. He doesn't seem to have any low post skills, which is still a concern. Anyway, I'm dubious the Spurs would pick him but they would have to see potential in work outs, which are often misleading, and I don't see this guy's agent taking him to the combine. We'll see. If he has a questionable motor/work ethic, then that is a hard pass for me. He will have to work really hard at being great for him to get even halfway there, but that's the same for any draft pick.

I haven’t heard anyone question his motor/work ethic except you.

Guys who aren’t in the Top 4 generally go to the combine, get measured, and do a set of workouts for maybe 8-9 teams. He won’t play in the scrimmages. That’s usually the late firsts and seconds.

[objective]

He's a year younger than Wiseman was for his draft. So while the shooting isn't as promising perhaps as for Wiseman and he's smaller, he has time to catch up. And he probably won't miss loads of development time like Wiseman has.

And we'll see with the measurements, but it doesn't look like he has tiny hands like Wiseman. Rebounding and strength are supposed to be potential positives for Duren, and the Spurs need all the rebounding they can get if they still are going to roll so small with their forwards

[Mr. Body]

Can anyone share details why Duren's ceiling is high, other than being young and physically gifted? Is it playmaking? Shooting? The video clips I see are dunking and blocking shots.

He's 18, so it's magic.

[exstatic]

He's a year younger than Wiseman was for his draft. So while the shooting isn't as promising perhaps as for Wiseman and he's smaller, he has time to catch up. And he probably won't miss loads of development time like Wiseman has.

And we'll see with the measurements, but it doesn't look like he has tiny hands like Wiseman. Rebounding and strength are supposed to be potential positives for Duren, and the Spurs need all the rebounding they can get if they still are going to roll so small with their forwards

Didn’t Wiseman play like 3 games for Memphis?

[XDT76]

I am not sure whether I support or oppose to this draft. He would be an agile big with good athletic ability we crave. However he seems to be poor against opponent with size, also his FT% is a concern.

[The Truth #6]

Trigger warning: He seems like a younger, more athletic, slightly bigger Garuba from last year, though with less bbiq but greater physical gifts. I liked Garuba as a prospect generally speaking. I could be talked into liking Duren but haven't heard or seen any great arguments so far. Typically, players like this are picked in the teens, like Robert Williams or DeAndre Jordan. There's a high bust potential with Duren if taken in the top ten I would argue. So it's a risky pick. I would love to have a lob threat for our team, too, so I get the frustration. If he was around with the second FRP, then that makes more sense for me.

[exstatic]

Trigger warning: He seems like a younger, more athletic, slightly bigger Garuba from last year, though with less bbiq but greater physical gifts. I liked Garuba as a prospect generally speaking. I could be talked into liking Duren but haven't heard or seen any great arguments so far. Typically, players like this are picked in the teens, like Robert Williams or DeAndre Jordan. There's a high bust potential with Duren if taken in the top ten I would argue. So it's a risky pick. I would love to have a lob threat for our team, too, so I get the frustration. If he was around with the second FRP, then that makes more sense for me.

Slightly bigger is probably a short sell.

Garuba is 6’8” 230 with a 7’2 wingspan. He has center skills, such as they are, but is sized like a combo forward. He played in the lower level Spanish league, and averaged 4.7p/4.6r over two seasons. His draft age was almost a year older than Duren’s.

Duren is 6’10” 250 with a 7’5” wingspan. He has center skills and a centers body. He played in the NCAA, and averaged 12p/8.1r in 29 games.

[SAGirl]

Good comparisons for Duren are the following players.

Rob Williams
Clint Capela
Jarrett Allen
Mitc Robinson
Jaren Jackson
Dwight Powell

Jaren Jackson could shoot the ball when he came in. I don’t know what happened to his shot after he got injured last season but he’s been a shooter since getting drafted, he can also put the ball on the floor and dribble. He was very raw when drafted but could shoot from the very beginning….

[SAGirl]

I am very intrigued by Duren though the lack of any use of the left hand is very concerning to me tbh. He’s very young but guys this age can at least make a layup with both hands I think, that’s something they practice in basketball drills since youth/early teens.

It just gives me a Ben Simmons kind of vibe in the sense that a player is so gifted physically that they stay content just being what they are because they already dominate without needing to add that one thing they need to add. It’s a totally subjective evaluation I recognize, but interviews and background checks would be necessary to vet him.

I do believe he can help the Spurs, but how would he could be is the question.

[exstatic]

I am very intrigued by Duren though the lack of any use of the left hand is very concerning to me tbh. He’s very young but guys this age can at least make a layup with both hands I think, that’s something they practice in basketball drills since youth/early teens.

It just gives me a Ben Simmons kind of vibe in the sense that a player is so gifted physically that they stay content just being what they are because they already dominate without needing to add that one thing they need to add. It’s a totally subjective evaluation I recognize, but interviews and background checks would be necessary to vet him.

I do believe he can help the Spurs, but how would he could be is the question.

Manu didn’t use his right hand until probably 2010. David Robinson never did, and managed to get into the HOF.

[duncan2150]

[objective]

Duren is also nearly 1.5 years younger than Bam Adebayo at draft time if I did my quick math right.

Not saying he's on track to be Bam or anything, but he has a lot of development time ahead of him. And physically he's already mostly there.

[Thomas82]

I wouldn't even be worried about his height since he's just 18 and can still grow another inch or 2.

[TD 21]

The reason I’d be on board with Jalen Duren as our pick is the spurs current bigs just don’t cut it Imo if we wanna be a playoff team again we need to find a big who is a game changer. I was watching the warriors vs nuggets game the other night and they made life a living for Jokic, both draymond and Looney defended him excellent. Jakob and Collins literally give Jokic anything he wants and the same goes for the other talented bigs in our league, I mean even Valanciunas carved up Jakob…

Duren will be hard pressed to be as high an impact player as Poeltl, let alone higher.

I know the Spurs would never sign Robinson and would have to give Bamba an exorbitant offer sheet, but if they really want this type or someone who could be (minus the strength), it can be had for cheaper than the cost of a top 10 pick. Virtually every comp for him was a late 1st/early 2nd.

The demise of bigs is greatly exaggerated, but if you're going to select one high, they better be skilled.

[objective]

The demise of bigs is greatly exaggerated, but if you're going to select one high, they better be skilled.

When you (and others refer to skill), are you only talking about 3 point shooting?

Because guys like Bam don't even take 3s, he's 0-6 on the season, 4-28 total the last 3 seasons.

There's other skills like passing and operating in the short roll, 1 dribble and a good decision ... I think there's enough footage to be hopeful that Duren will be a good cog in the offense with passing and making plays. There's also footage where he turns out over like Eubanks with bad decisions, but he's 18.

His hands look good enough to me, though I could be wrong as I haven't watched everything, but I think catching and handling passes is a skill.

And even the shooting isn't something I'd write off. He was very poor on free throws and bad in his few mid range, but the shots he did make looked promising. I think he looked better form wise than I remember Precious showing at Memphis and he was 2 years older. Favors developed a mid-range and improved that and his free throws as his career progressed. Dedmon developed a three.

There is one scouting video where the host was stressing that he's a poor pick and roll defender with no communication. That's a skill be definitely needs to improve. Communication issues would worry me more than shooting.

[CGD]

Like Duren, but I’m still favoring a big wing with size at 9, and then seeing if Mark Williams from Duke (another 7’ w/7,5” wingspan) drops to 20.

[DPG21920]

Duren is definitely going to be like tier 5 on timvp draft list lol

[ZeusWillJudge]

The demise of bigs is greatly exaggerated, but if you're going to select one high, they better be skilled.

When you (and others refer to skill), are you only talking about 3 point shooting?

There's other skills like passing and operating in the short roll, 1 dribble and a good decision ... I think there's enough footage to be hopeful that Duren will be a good cog in the offense with passing and making plays. There's also footage where he turns out over like Eubanks with bad decisions, but he's 18.

His hands look good enough to me, though I could be wrong as I haven't watched everything, but I think catching and handling passes is a skill.

And even the shooting isn't something I'd write off. He was very poor on free throws and bad in his few mid range, but the shots he did make looked promising. I think he looked better form wise than I remember Precious showing at Memphis and he was 2 years older. Favors developed a mid-range and improved that and his free throws as his career progressed. Dedmon developed a three.

There is one scouting video where the host was stressing that he's a poor pick and roll defender with no communication. That's a skill be definitely needs to improve. Communication issues would worry me more than shooting.

It's about versatility. 3P shooting is one of the skills I would value most highly, but the ability to defend outside of the paint is another. The PnR is all about timing, and for a big man knowing where/when to set the pick, and when to release it. It helps a lot if he can put the ball on the floor more than once on the way to the hole. If Boban could have figured out the PnR, he would be a beast instead of a myth.

If a C isn't versatile in this league, he's situational. Or he has to land on an absolutely perfect roster. This isn't that roster. Duren isn't as slow and plodding as Boban, but I would really hate to see the Spurs spend the 9 pick on him. That's my take, anyway.

[rankingtear]

Not for us. Wright is just begging someone to overpay for Jakob to get that shooting 5 in the starting lineup. We are not investing in a rim runner. Our best guys KJ/DJ needs space not a lob target.

[XDT76]

Not for us. Wright is just begging someone to overpay for Jakob to get that shooting 5 in the starting lineup. We are not investing in a rim runner. Our best guys KJ/DJ needs space not a lob target.

We should look at J. Smith as a FA where he can provide both a lob target and 3pt shooting. He is also an aggressive rebounder (both O&D)

[exstatic]

Like Duren, but I’m still favoring a big wing with size at 9, and then seeing if Mark Williams from Duke (another 7’ w/7,5” wingspan) drops to 20.

All big guys with 7’5” wingspans are not created equal. Williams upside is less than Duren’s. There’s a reason one is top 10, and one is next 10.

[CGD]

All big guys with 7’5” wingspans are not created equal. Williams upside is less than Duren’s. There’s a reason one is top 10, and one is next 10.

In this case, though, it’s largely a two year age difference and that’s largely it. No brainer pick 20 years ago, just seems the rim runner type is easier to find these days on the open market than in the past.